Figure for the Belmont

I think the track speeded up during the day. (there was some scattered showers)

It looks faster from the 6th race on and I think you can make a good case for cutting the 1st race loose from the 3rd and 5th.

I don\'t have a very current or good 1 1/2 par time for Belmmot, but if the one I am using is still reasonably accurate, I have Birdstone more or less matching his peak, Royal Assault running similar to his recent performances, and everyone else\'s figures collapsing at the 12 furlongs.

That conclusion is very similar to what my eyes told me and also makes sense in light of the 1 1/4 time.

[TGJB]

I won\'t be doing the day until at least Monday, and the track may very well have changed. But there really is no such thing as an accurate par time for the 1 1/2 at Belmont because of various moisture issues-- NYRA track superintendent Porcelli tells me there are days when you can see the water on the track on the backstretch, and the stretch and clubhouse turn are bone dry-- he thinks it\'s because of wind currents around the grandstand. Having said that, my starting point in looking at the race will indeed be to give Royal Assault his previous top, and see where that leads.

Catalin-- pretty funny about Harthill. I was at a TOBA event Fri night, and got into a conversation with someone directly involved with the graded stake commitee\'s attempt to clean up the drug stuff, and it confirmed both our hopes and fears. More on this sometime later.

On the rides-- it is worth keeping in mind that both SJ and Real Quiet cleared the rest of the field by a whole bunch, and if Stevens had not split horses 3 times RQ would have won. The most startling thing to me about this year\'s race, which I don\'t think anyone has commented on, is that the 3 other horses with numbers, all of whom were relatively fresh (3rd start in 8 weeks), and 2 of whom were really bred to like the distance, just spit it out. Everything considered (like, the sheer number of starts and stressful efforts he had coming in) it is amazing that SJ was the only one with big figures who ran.

Actually, I take it back, that was the second most amazing thing. How about that place price on SJ.

[Silver Charm]

Wonder for the sake of trivia if you could get give out an informal number or a formal quit figure for a Mile and Quarter.

I will be the first to admit to having no clue on figure making but here goes....in the Beyer Range a 110-115 and on TG maybe a Neg 2 or Neg 3 considering he was three wide or so on the first turn.

Which means for a three year old going a Mile and a Quarter this horse is an absolute @ss kicker. But those are just guesses, would like to here the pros weigh-in.

[Holy55]

Since we are guess....I would guess that the Beyer speed figure will be 100-105. Just a guess, but I think the number will be lower than we might think.

[Josephus]

Another big race day which confimed my switch from Rags to TG. I had Seek Gold at $45.80 ( note the parallel in terms of figs, trainer, etc. to the Bel. Stk ).  Country Judge at $11.40 + got dq from the Exacta which would have been juicy ( can somebody tell me what happened? I couldn\'t hear anything at the track ) Board Eligible at $30.00, Fire Slam $7.60 and the 12th race exacta $83.50 I thought all of these prices were overlays and cashed thanks to the great job done on these figs by TG. So I have every confidence that your fig for the BS will be just as good.

[Silver Charm]

Holy I may have been unclear in the way my post was interpreted. The numbers I was speculating on are for a 1 mile and 1/4 not a mile and 1/2.

I think this horse ran another great race for a mile and 1/4 but......

I think the final mile and 1/2 number will be SLOW.

Which begs the question if it was a giant effort for a mile and a quarter but slow for a mile and a half is a quit figure more accurate for Smarty Jones???

[thomas]

Silver Charm, you can\'t give a \'quit\' number to a horse beaten a length for all the money no matter the distance or how slow the final time may be.He didn\'t \'quit\',he got tired.

[Silver Charm]

OK,

A Got Tired Figure.

You get my point....this horse is anything but a quitter.

This from Servis in the Bloodhorse,

``Stew did a good job. You can\'t drag him off the pace,\'\' Servis said. ``He was a little upset. He felt he would have settled if those guys hadn\'t pressed him so hard,\'\' Servis said of Elliott. ``He knew they were just sacrificing their horses. He had horses breathing down his neck. I kind of thought it would set up like that.\'\'

Now go back and read my,\"The Great Ones Post\". About Smarty having to take on all challengers and defeating them on-by-one. You could see it coming.

No one gives these type of Championships away, you earn them, and that is the way it should be.

This is sports and competition at the highest levels and defeat is sometimes difficult to take. But that is OK because it shows how much you care.



Post Edited (06-07-04 06:52)

TGJB,

>Everything considered (like, the sheer number of starts and stressful efforts he had coming in) it is amazing that SJ was the only one with big figures who ran.<

I mentioned it from another direction.

My feeling is that the contest on the backstretch took a lot of energy out of Eddington, RHT, and SJ. (Purge also but he was done too fast to attribute it all to that pressure).

Had the race not developed like that, I think they all would have run at least closer to their normal races from a speed figure point of view.

So indeed, I also believe it is amazing that SJ held together for the whole campaign and deomonstrated his superiority to these other horses.

I credit Servis.

The more I look at the fractions the more convinced I am that everyone\'s speed figure collapsed except Birdstone and Royal Assault. The 1 1/4 time is some pretty strong evidence.

>Since we are guess....I would guess that the Beyer speed figure will be 100-105. Just a guess, but I think the number will be lower than we might think.<

I agree.  If anything it should be at the  low end or lower.

However, it would not shock me if some speed handicappers give it a higher figure.

Some might consider the energy expended on the backstretch - which reduced the speed figures of all that participated - as part of the track variant and make a figure that is more representative of the horses\' abilitites and less representative of how fast they actually ran.  

In other words, the trip will be built into the figure.

If people do that, they will tend to overrate both Birdstone and Royal Assault.

If some people then use that higher figure and supplement it with the trip, they will tend to overrate the horses that participated in the contest on the back.

I hope that made some sense. It\'s not easy to express what I am saying.

>I think this horse ran another great race for a mile and 1/4 but......<

Exactly.... and that  1 1/4 time (as well as visual skills) is the key to realizing that the race completely fell apart in the last 1/4 mile and deserves a pretty low figure.

[fasteddie]

My \"guess\" would be that Bird ran a 0, Smarty  a 1, Royal a 4, and everybody else collapsed! Kudos to the Smarty team for holding him together for so long.

It is time to shorten the Belmont; even older horses in this country do not run a mile and a half on dirt anymore. The Jockey Club Gold Cup USED to be 2, then 1 1/2, now it\'s 1 1/4, all because the BC classic is the Holy Grail!

[Florida Phil]

I give you all the credit in the world if you can read TG and pick Seek Gold to WIN.  And some of your other selections have to begin by eliminating the fastest three horses in the race....we certainly read numbers differently.

[thomas]

the Sartin crowd may judge SJ's performance differently then the sheet/Beyer camps probably will.

[jimbo66]

Absolutely agreed.  Belmont day was NOT a day where being a T-Graph customer paid off at all.  I bought the figues and Jerry\'s analysis (I am still learning how to use the figures myself).  Jerry was zero for the card.  Not sure any congratulations or thanks are due.