Smarty Jones - Triple Crown / B.C. Thoughts .

[marcus]

Smarty\'s pattern does seem to have that look to it . Although each 4 of this horse\'s last efforts ( real big ones - the biggest kinds ) all came on very short rest , Smarty Jones still has really delivered .  Everything seems to be going his way ... formfull pattern that performed as one might expect - excellent numbers pairing top\'s off a 0 2 X patteren in the Preakness last time - lots of wins & money + Love from fans etc. - now comes into the Belmont off an 0 2 X 0 ( all negative - #\'s ) with a chance to make Racing history nailing down the 3rd Jewel of the Triple Crown and the Belmont Stakes . Personally I would have recomended that Smarty Jones pass the Ark Derby . Even had I been in a position to do that , how does one talk race horse owners , trainers and general connections out of probably the winners share of a $ 1 million dollar race and a $5 million bonus ? and never race Smarty Jones again after the Belomont win or lose ...    Well I know enough about the game to know the answer to that question ! However I would seriously advise Smarty\'s people to buy lot\'s of horses ( from jerry ) to run in all those spots they\'d like to go in after they retiere Smarty Jones to stand for breeding after saturday . The economics of breeding would have a tremendous upside and they must be thinking at least from a risk assessment point of view ( one would think ) about protecting their  investment ... ofcourse that mean\'s no Breeders Cup for Smarty which might possibly provide an oppertunity to find out who\'s the best of the rest in 2004 , Purge comes to mind ... It\'s been a Remarkable 3 year old season for racing this year so far and no doubt will continue to get more interesting as the summer progresses , I would like to see some big big prices however .



Post Edited (06-03-04 01:11)

[bdhsheets]

The owner has already told prospective suitors that he wants to watch Smarty run next year because of the joy it brings him and other people.

I\'m guessing they\'ll take the summer off. They\'ve indicated they\'d like to run in the PA Derby in front of the home crowd, followed by.....? JCGC and off to the BC? We\'ll see.

[irontank]

Had SJ skipped (or failed to place in) the Arkansas Derby he would not have qualified for the Ky Derby

[Mall]

It\'s anything but. Bill Nader of NYRA is predicting, probably corrrectly, that more money will be bet on Smarty Jones Sat. than on any other horse in the history of racing. The biggest single bet, however, is one which won\'t find it\'s way into the mutuel pool. And while it doesn\'t make sense to question the business acumen of anyone who is able to thrive in the cutthroat world of auto sales, & the hope is that I am dead wrong, it is not entirely clear from published reports that the Chapmans, who have turned the entire matter over to George Isaacs of Bridlewood, fully understand the nature & amts of the bets they are making.

As has often been the case, Point Given, the last mega-syndication, was a failure financially, a fact well known to the very limited number of players who can participate when things reach the $40-60 million range, a list which is considerably shorter when you publically indicate a preference for US ownership. Smarty is worth some number of millions more today than he will be after the Bel if he loses, but those millions are nothing compared to what will be at risk if he races at 4, particularly as there is not enough insurance capacity to cover the potential loss.

Perhaps the Chapmans really don\'t care about the extra millions, although it\'s hard to argue with those who point out that in the final analysis money made the difference in virtually every other case in recent memory, despite what was said initially & in the press. If, as I firmly hope, the Chapmans are planning on keeping Smarty on the track for the good of the game, they deserve all the credit in the world, & in the estimation of this fan will leave a legacy of doing more for the sport than all of the bluebloods who run things behind the scene combined.

[Silver Charm]

Excellent post Mall.

When I read the brief Bloodhorse account of Smarty going to the Track this morning at 6:00AM they made mention that Roy Chapman was there, in his wheelchair, at the backstetch entrance to the main track. One truly has to wonder what is going thru his mind at this point in time. A guy lives for almost 90 years and thinks he has seen it all and then the man upstairs says \"You haven\'t nothing yet.\"

Roy Chapman will probably not live long enough to see if the Smarty syndication was a profitable deal or not. If Smarty was a great stallion, good one, or a total bust. Roy Chapman knows he has caught the Ultimate Rogue Wave and as far as he is concerned he is going to ride this one for as long as he can go because in his mind, at his age, HE KNOWS there won\'t be another.

[Mall]

If you weren\'t already gainfully employed, I\'d hire you as my publicist, though some might say that I don\'t need one. In any event, thanks for the kind words.

I have limited personal experience & my only \"evidence\" consists of asking a surgeon who posts here fairly often, but I am of the opinion that this horse is giving Mr Chapman a reason & a will to continue living, & that he will be around a lot longer if Smarty continues to run. A variation, so to speak, on the old saying that no one with a promising two yr old has ever committed suicide. For someone in his condition, the will to live is a little like some horses\' desire to compete, in that they\'re both underrated.

[magicnight]

Mall;

Must concur with Silver - great post!

This horse could not have wound up in a better barn. Chapman did not name his operation \"Someday Farm\" on a whim - what was he hoping that he might get \"someday\"? A horse like Smarty Jones. What\'s that Visa tag line? Priceless.

[marcus]

Thanks for pointing that out , if what your saying is true and I bet it is , I stand corrected . Obviously I\'m more than in a little over my head when discussing many of the conditions of a race . Would a Horse\'s 2 yo earnings count towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby ? If so , this might account for Smarty unquestionably being over raced as a 3 yo . Considering the circumstances of this horse\'s 2 yo campaign it\'s miraculous that he is still racing (overaced at 3 aside)and managed to get two turns early in the year as a 3 yo . I\'m looking at Smarty Jones\'s sheet right now and I\'m struck by the not only quality of pattern and numbers but also the quantity of big number efforts . As the qualifying rules for the Derby are presently structured would have there been any 3 yo race\'s Smarty could of skiped in your opinion ?

[mrhill]

Overraced at 3?  He was given a rest after the count fleet and prepped at arkansas starting off at 1m, then progressing to 1 1/16 then to 1 1/8. That sounds like a pretty good schedule to me. You have to plan for the kentucky derby first and not the triple crown.

[marcus]

You know I had previously heard what your saying about Smarty but I quess it didn\'t register , now it does - thanks . Though I really hope that how the horse comes out of the race on saturday is a main consideration and factor in determining Smarty\'s future career path . To me it all looks pointed to a BC prep(Pa Derby?) , the BC and then off to UAE as a 4 yo . I really can\'t say if Smarty\'s owners are being entirely genuine about bringing the Joy to everyone - we all know that racing is a business and the importance of good public relations .

[cozzene]

Gentlemen

I am a rich guy with emphysema; what do i need more money for, it will not bring back my lungs.

I like to watch my horse run.

Get it fellas.

Cozzene

[P-Dub]

Agreed. This horse has already earned $7 million dollars with a chance for another 6 million. If he loses the Belmont, he\'s still worth millions.  Not as many millions, but milions nonetheless. The Chapmans aren\'t in this to see if they can cash for the maximum, they want to see their horse run and hopefully become a champion. They are in it for the thrill of the chase as much as the prize itself.

I see Smarty Jones running through his 4 yo campaign with the culmination of his career coming in the BC Classic in 2005. This horse has the potential to be one of the greats of the past 20-30 years, if not longer. We\'ll never find out unless he races into at least his 4yo season. I couldn\'t agree more with Cozzene. Mall, you make a great point about the legacy being left by the Chapmans and Smarty. Barring something catastrophic, Smarty will be worth a mint regardless of when he retires. But to have your name associated with a great horse, money can\'t buy that.

[bdhsheets]

marcus:

There were $5 million reasons why he raced Rebel Stks, Arky Derby, Ky Derby.

Only money earned in Graded Stakes races count towards qualifying for the Ky Derby. Smarty had zero prior to the Arky Derby.

[wderanged]

I think the points that have been made about why the Chapmans want to continue running Smarty Jones are dead on. Another thing to realize is that Smarty Jones, even if he wins tomorrow, still has more that he could prove. If he wins tomorrow, he will be one of twelve triple crown winners and presumably one of the, say, 25 greatest racehorses of all time. He will be champion three year old and horse of the year. But that is hardly the limit of what he can achieve. I assume that he will be given a considerable break after the Belmont, possibly precluding performances in the major summer races like the Haskell in the Travers. But he still will likely race two or three times this year, in the Pa. Derby and the B.C. Classic, with possibly another race in between. If he were to win those, say, three races, he will end the year 10 for 10 and 12 for 12 in his career, completing arguably the greatest single season in racing history.


But even that would not be the limit. It is still a long way in the future, but I think it is not unreasonable to start considering another of racing\'s greatest feats, 16 wins in a row. The Belmont, then three races this year, would put him only five races shy of Citation/Cigar\'s record. And, frankly, he has done nothing to show that winning eight more races without a loss is unrealistic.

The point is simply this-- Smarty Jones has the potential not only to do something that has not been done in racing in 26 years. He has the potential to do even more. Jerry Brown and co. have already shown quite conclusively his exceptional speed. If he wins the Triple Crown, the Breeder\'s Cup Classic, and gets 17 in a row, we would all be hard-pressed to argue not just that he wasn\'t one of the greatest racehorses of all-time, but that he was THE single greatest racehorse of all-time.

Given, if he loses tomorrow, this might all be out the window. But that\'s racing.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This time the shooters aren\'t the top gunslingers with time off. The primary threat is Purge. Not so much on comparable ability as the one most likely to pick up the pieces if Smarty has a melt down.

The other horse in my opinion to be considered a threat is Eddington. I really don\'t think Rock Hard Ten has been relishing the late part of races. He gave it up late in the Santa Anita Derby and Eddington was getting to him good in the Preakness. He could be maturing into it, but he\'s a Kris S. out of a Prospector mare. I think he\'s a good 9 mark horse, not as good as Purge though.

Can Smarty be beaten? An empathetic yes. He\'s never worked over the track. He\'s never run on it. He\'s breaking from the outside and it might be wet. His wet numbers have been 1.3\'s. Can he run a wet 1.3 at 12 marks? Will he regress? Will he bounce? Who else can run a negative 1 in this race?