A few early thoughts

[jimbo66]

Haven\'t seen the TG numbers yet as i am waiting for them to be available this afternoon, but a few early thoughts/themes that are in play this year.

A trap I often fall into with the Breeders Cup races is betting horses that are \"over the top\".  It is late in the racing year, many have had quite a few races and have fired a few big numbers.  When a good horse that has run a number of really good races throws in an off race or a slight regression in their last race before the Breeder\'s Cup, the question becomes - an aberration or a sign of \"over the top\".  It gets trickier when there is some type of excuse that seems valid for the off race.  This is the trap i have often fall into.

Again, without seeing numbers, i think a few fit into this category:

1.  AP Indian in the Sprint.  Fired quite a few big races, I think in the TG negative 2 range.  Then ran what I presume is a regression last time where he held on by a  nose over an average horse at Keenland.  Maybe he didn\'t like Keenland?  Or is he tailing off.  I am inclined to think this one is tailing off.

2.  Lord nelson - I suspect his TG numbers, earned in California, may make him look a tad slow, but nonetheless, he had fired some nice races until his last, which certainly seems to be a regression.  I am not as firm as i was on AP Indian, but again, somewhat inclined to think he is heading the wrong way.  (the Baffert factor gives me hesitation)

3.  Flintshire - I think the toughest call.  I know some here think he was overhyped based on figures, but I am not one of them.  Think he is a monster and ran some big figures, while only asked or allowed to run for a small portion of the race.  His last was awful.  Of course, the soft turf is a big excuse, but it could be he is tailing off as well.  I lean towards accepting the excuse, and thinking he is the most likely winner of the BC Turf, but can\'t fault those that think he is tailing off.

4.  Tepin - Didn\'t look right in the stretch to me in the Woodbine race, in a winning effort.  Then looked very average in a strange losing race at Keenland.  To me, clearly over the top and a bet against.  

Another theme is the fresh horse.  Specifically, Baffert training two top contenders in two big races, off of layoffs since August.  Drefong in the Sprint and Arrogate in the Classic.  Can he get them to fire big shots off the extended layoff?  Getting the 6 furlongs off the layoff much easier than the 1 1/4, but this is Baffert, the best trainer in the game, by many counts.  Ron Ellis also bringing Masochistic into the Sprint off a layoff I believe (not sure, but think so)

BTW, when was the last BC sprint, which had as little early speed as this year\'s?  Drefong from the inside and Masochistic from the outside look like the speeds.  A bunch of mid pack and closer types after that.  Interesting.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is the BC Turf sprint which has 3 of the horses with the best early speed in the worst draws, posts 1-2-3, which almost guarantees an insanely fast pace going down the hill.  

Have no idea what figure ironicus got in his last and for the most part, i don\'t care, as the turn of foot he showed late in the Keenland race, being in an impossible position, was breathtaking.  With speed on the rail and on the far outside, the BC Turf Mile should be at a fast pace.  Expect Ironicus to be VERY VERY hard to beat in that race.  Also expect nowhere near 8-1 at post time, unless people somehow never saw replays of the Keenland race.  

More thoughts after the TG figs come out.

Good Luck,

Jim

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:
I agree with your assessment of Tepin. Not sure about Flintshire however he is now a 6yo.

As for the Mile--the question in my mind with Ironicus is giving you 2 in a row. Motion horse is just as dangerous with better tactical speed however news of hoof issues is troubling over a rock hard surface. Perhaps the reason that he did not race for 15 months after his Kilroe eye opener last year.

See potential value in F/M sprint with Carina Mia taking a chunk of money. I\'m tossing. Check archives for reasons.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

I have a hunch the seminar will confirm/agree with some of that, and some not so much (we disagree with Beyer and Jake about Lord Nelson\'s last figure. And I\'m right).

[FrankD.]

BTW, when was the last BC sprint, which had as little early speed as this year\'s? Drefong from the inside and Masochistic from the outside look like the speeds. A bunch of mid pack and closer types after that. Interesting.


Jimbo,

Drefong ain\'t gonna get a 23 first quarter like in the Kings Bishop, Delta Bluesman and he will be on a suicide mission with Masochistic pressing from the flank. I would be extremely surprised if the first 1/4 isn\'t a 21 and change.

Frank D.

[Silver Charm]

To both of you what is the best finish by a New York based Sprinter in the Sprint out in California? Have they ever won? Alydeed maybe? Does Smile count?

There have been plenty of Groovys who got their doors blown off by a Very Subtle west coast early foot type. This is whole nother level of early pace....

[jimbo66]

Frank,

I only agree with Silver Charm about once a year, but this is the one.

DeFrong can go much faster than 23.  Doesn\'t need a slow pace.  Believe he is much quicker than Delta Bluesman.  West Coast speed is real speed.

Masochistic a \"poor man\'s\" Commentator in my opinion.  When he gets hooked, he folds.   When allowed to run at his own pace, he is dynamite.  Masochistic gets hooked one way or another on Saturday.  (no reason for any commentator fans to slam me, I loved the horse, and he was a freak when allowed to set his own pace at any distance, up to 1 1/8, but he had some bad races when pressed).  I think Masochistic is the same way.  of course, no horse likes to get hooked hard with a fast early pace, but some only regress a bit when it happens, while others collapse, relative to their other figures.

[jbelfior]

Another consideration is how quickly quality 3yo male sprinters close the physical gap on their elders between August and November.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

That\'s why God invented speed figures.