Back to the Maiden Well, Race 4 Belmont

[dodie]

I\'ll write at the outset that Maggie Wolfendale\'s comment\'s will carry a lot of weight in both the 3rd and 4th races at Belmont today:  Maidens, and lots of horses coming off layoffs.
  With that said, I like Shug\'s Morse Code in the 4th.  He\'ll need to improve about 3 points from his Nov 15 2yo race, which is within his sire\'s TGI improvement range.  I\'ll take 5/2 on him to win.
  Second choice at 10/1 ML is the longer priced half of Kirian\'s uncoupled entry, Exulting.  Also by Tapit, he\'ll need to improve about 5 points from his troubled, wide first start.  He\'s worth a win bet at 8/1.
Encrypt is a logical favorite, but he\'s had 3 months off after a route X effort (that incidentally still puts him in the exotics) and at 2/1, I\'m willing to bet the juice has been squeezed and he runs another 10, which will not win this.  
The 3rd horse I\'d have to use in Bryan Lynch\'s  Basic Hero.  Although he is showing signs he needs to drop to the Mdn clming ranks to win, I can see him in the trifecta at 4/1 ML.

[dodie]

Addendum: Yes, I\'m a superstar must be considered at 4/1 ML; probably more  so  than Exulting; let\'s make it Morse Code at 5/2; Imastuperstar at 3/1; and Exulting at 8/1.  Maggie\'s comments will make the decision easier, I hope.