Travers

[sekrah]

Playing Arrogate. Pattern setting up for a huge top. I rate his last effort a hair better than what TG has it due to slow pace and poor start.  Maybe closer to a 3, setting up a big move forward here.  Runs a 0 today, 1w1w.  Love the stride, kind of reminds me of Pharoah.

Can\'t play Exaggerator off the 2 pt top on slop.  Destin and American Freedom would be my backup/saver plans.  Connect and Gun Runner are going to run a negative number one of these days too, hope it\'s not today, I\'ll play against the posts.

Good luck.

[TempletonPeck]

Sounds like you should have gotten all the money, good picking!

[Silver Charm]

Yes indeed. Well done. I\'m impressed

[johnnym]

Nice call.

[sekrah]

Thanks guys. Needed that one.

[FrankD.]

Sekrah,

Great pick and I hope you cashed well.

No one can ever doubt a lightly raced 3 yr old running a jump up number and your target of a 0 was my projected number to take the heat. On a personal note I was all in on the wrong Baffert horse!

Arrogate\'s last a 3 horse NW of 2 optional claimer was a tough race to evaluate. Baffy pulled no punches as the Travers was this horses target via the Jim Dandy but missing a couple days of training forced a switch to the Del Mar race.

A big new top may be the understatement of the year!!! He caught the perfect storm on a souped up speedway running a sub 24 last 1/4 after fast early fractions.

Frank D.

[boston]

Some might call me a redboarder - but what the hell.  Thank You.

[Dana666]

That\'s awesome handicapping but very much reading between the lines; just doesn\'t really have ANYTHING to do with the sheets. He was one of the slowest horses in the race, only the 5 & 6 were slower, and so he breaks the track record! Yeah that makes sense. So he went from a 4 to like a negative 4. Not exactly predictable. The only idea I had is I think all these 3 year olds stink, and I was looking for a new face. Unfortunately, I got suckered in the direction of the Chad Brown runners and Pletcher\'s giant rat Destin (hardly a new face but one I thought would stay the distance for sure) who looked like he sweat 100 gallons of water before the race but I used him anyway. And Mike Smith deserves praise for a heads up ride. Everybody grabbed so he took the initiative. You wouldn\'t be touting the sheets for that one though--just your good old fashioned skills and intuition which I checked with my pork pie hat at the door.

[jerry]

A string of 4s was never going to point you to this horse. Sekrah\'s \"adjustment\" to a 3 in the last would have been a significant move to me but it wasn\'t there. The fact that he was 11-1 tells me someone new something we didn\'t. I thought his price was short based on his numbers.

[sekrah]

I\'ve discussed this before but if you\'re playing TGs without pace and trip adjustments(beyond ground loss), you\'re playing with one hand tied behind your back. I find way more explainable jumps and bounces when I adjust the figs than if I just swallow them at face value.

I would be lying if I said I wasn\'t shocked yesterday. No way on earth is anyone going to predict 8 pt tops and track records. But adjusting his last to a 3 made him a powerful pattern and a serious contender with an inside trip when it didn\'t look particulary likely that anyone else was going to run faster than a 0.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Arrogate was trained by Baffert and had a 103 beyer which was 2nd fastest I think.

There was no \"somebody knew something\" about the horse.  It was there for everybody to see.

He looked bad on TG.  For sure.

What percentage of the betting pool is looking at TG sheets?  (don\'t know, perhaps TGJB has a guess, but best case is single digit percentage)

What percentage of the betting pool sees the PP from the DRF?  (maybe 75 to 80 percent?)

[jerry]

I said somebody knew something we didn\'t. I should have said somebody knew something I didn\'t since I stopped looking at the Form and BSF a long time ago. They\'re junk, remember?

[johnnym]

Nobody is right all the time and I hope, none of us are wrong all the time..

[P-Dub]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I said somebody knew something we didn\'t. I should
> have said somebody knew something I didn\'t since I
> stopped looking at the Form and BSF a long time
> ago. They\'re junk, remember?

You\'re getting awfully worked up over one race.

There are countless times TG figs trump any other figure. You want perfection? It ain\'t gonna happen.

When its BC day try handicapping those races using the DRF and Beyers. Let me know how that turns out compared to those using TG figures.

For every one race like this, someone could probably find 10 that go the other way.

[jerry]

I\'m just having a hard time getting my arms around the idea that a horse improved 40 lengths in a little over 3 weeks. If you\'re suggesting I\'m dwelling on one race, remember, all of these races are interrelated. The figures assigned are relative to the figures assigned to other horses racing on other days at other tracks. If there\'s a flaw in the code there\'s a flaw in all of the data.