The Saratoga 2 Y/O Phenomena

[Tavasco]

Summer racing at Saratoga is enjoyable for many reasons. Not the least of which is welcoming in the new crop of two year old race horses. They are a mystery to most not on the backstretch. But a mystery that tugs at our imagination.  Saturday has three MSW races. Reasonable to think one or more performance will be impressive maybe eye popping.

Race 1
I\'m probably not the only handicapper who immediately got stuck on the first horse in the first race Saturday. Frankel\'s 1st colt to race Cunco won @ first asking in May @ Newbury. But today Brooklyn Bobby\'s Dam Balance, as precocious as she was, has yet to drop a winning foal in three chances. Trainer Lynch batting  11% first out turf winners and a paltry 26% in the money. When you have a horse as valuable as this one might become patience is prudence. Yet the workout tab shows promise and the sire\'s celebrity is sure to attract attention. Will be surprised if price is not less than 5/2 at post time which I suppose makes the race playable. That is unless Ticonderoga draws in?

Race 2
Trainer Lynch has a runner in this heat also as if he may be considering the daily double. But I doubt if this heat is easier than his first try which was good for quite awhile and then not.

A couple of former lime lighters Zito & Lucas are awarded generous morning lines which imo are unlikely to drop much. Yet I do have confidence in the Sires if questions about first time starter from both barns. Air On Fire for the fans of Unbridled Song (this is his last crop isn\'t it)

Then we have PP\'s 5,6,7,8 with contenders with top win early trainers and winning jockey\'s. So I expect none in this group will be persevered with. Maybe limit Amoss trainee to second and third slots and give Ward the nod?

Then we have the outsiders, If my math is correct Albertrani has won 6 out of 144 first out MSW. How can he be 10/1? Rosario (post 9) one good workout, his last, carries that much influence? I suppose certainly stops me from otherwise completely disregarding this one. Then Rudy, who has surprised on more than one occasion. But its an Ortiz and Zayat and Jump Start was a good sprinter if memory serves. I think he\'ll need one here.

No million dollar babies yet but apparently a nice crapshoot.


Race 6
Here we go Godolphin, Tabor, Brooklyn Boyz. Street Cry, Bernardini, Curlin, Union Rags. Half this group destined for routing as their best distance and another group I see as more sprint oriented. Tha might make for and interesting heat with some early speed and more than a couple making up ground late.

Hmm... Classic Cotton, small trainer sample but you have to like his stats, good sprint sire, good works, good m/l apt to be overlooked at the windows. Team NY (Klaravich, Brown Irad) expected to be the choice vs experienced Out-of towners (Frenchie, Casse, Casses Story) how good is Bitumen (very I suspect). Another crapshoot for me imagining money to be made with the right guess.

[makomaniac]

I am very interested in the early races at Saratoga today. In the first I will be betting #3 Ultron for Mott. Very seldom does Mott come back in 7 days, This colt was in with Theory last Saturday(Pletcher\'s killer). Horse made a great impression on the track and clearly wanted more distance. Not sure that turf is going to be the answer but he is definitely worth following and the dam has produced a turf winner who is a full to this colt.Also in this race, the Lukas horse should take to the turf. Good early speed n debut and now gets Lasix and Saez and being by Blame should take to the turf.Dam has produced turf winners.Lets just hope that the Frankel is not as god as advertised.
Race #5 I have been waiting for Weaver to go to the turf with #3 Abstract Cape.Expensive son of Cape Blanco($250K) might be a turf move up. Takes blinkers off and has good speed on the dirt. I think it is very positive that Weaver actually tried this turf bred horse on the dirt off the trainer change. He must train very well in the AM. Just hoping that both these races actually stay on grass.

[Silver Charm]

Seems like they are running more Baby Route Turf races than ever before. Which is a little odd considering they wont be stretching the Dirt Babies out beyond 6.5 until later in the meet. This is a really big shift. I would wager a Saratoga stalwart would report this was unheard of 20 years ago. Now its a Dirt Baby/Route Turf Baby race every weekend. And people launching expensive well meant firsters in both!!

[richiebee]

Is this the TG board?