3 Year Old Stakes this weekend

[jimbo66]

Dark day at Saratoga has me thinking ahead to the weekend stakes.  Haskell/Jim Dandy weekend usually one of my favorites of the year, outside the Triple Crown/Breeders Cup.

Looking forward to seeing the sheets, but some early thoughts.

Haskell

Most will be expecting Nyquist to get back on the winning track here (although he ran well in defeat in the Preakness).  

Gun Runner, much more popular with non-TG users, could be interesting in the race.  While he was \"slow\" heading in the Derby, I thought he was an underneath use, off his improved tactical speed in the Fair Grounds race.  I have long been a believer that when non-front runners suddenly show improved gate speed/tactical speed, it is a sign they are hitting a form spree.   (not a red-board, as Nyquist wasn\'t on any of my tickets in the 1st slot, so using Gun Runner underneath was meaningless).  He ran well in the Derby, likely a better performance than his TG figure will show (he saved ground).   Haven\'t seen a figure for the Matt Winn race, but he won and visually looked OK.  

American Freedom.  Baffert has won how many Haskell\'s?  6? 8?  Lost track.  Unfortunately for anybody that likes this horse, he will be an underlay because of Baffert.  Extremely popular at Monmouth.  And why not, he almost always wins.  As for American Freedom, he will be another that I think will look a bit slow on TG (from memory of the California figure).  That said, at Saratoga this weekend I must have had 10 people tell me that Baffert is telling anybody that will listen that American Freedom is a monster.  Whatever that is worth.

Interesting post draw there in shortish expected field and jockey decisions will be key.  None of Nyquist, gun Runner or American Freedom are blazers out of the gate, but all have gate speed.  Jockey intent and post position could be key.

As for the Travers, I start out by hating Creator, regardless of what his sheet looks like.  cost me a bundle in the Belmont.  Going to say the 1 1/2 miles made him best there, not that he is an improving horse. Mohaymen, a \"hate and toss\" for me in the Derby off the bad effort at Gulfstream, will go favored, i would think.  Kiaran extremely unpredictable.  Starting Saratoga hot and has loved this horse all winter/spring.  Expecting an extreme underlay versus actual chances of winning, but will be hard to discount if he runs back to his figures earlier in the year, or improves on them.

Destin will be worth a look for sure.  Had the big figure early in the year and after a deceptively decent Derby ran very well in the Belmont.  Feeling pain as I type this, as I was sure JAvier was getting him home.  Shortening back up, with some time and perhaps the best tactical speed of the contenders, he could be very tough here.

Governor Malibu, another horse I expect to be overbet, will be a likely toss for me.  Talk to too many people who thought Rosario cost this horse a win in the Belmont.  Agreed that he got stopped and lost some momentum, but to me he isn\'t getting to either Destin or Creator and with too many people giving him credit for a race he didn\'t run, he figures shorter than true odds.  (if that isn\'t true come this weekend, I will have to reconsider)

As for a horse who it seems isn\'t running this weekend, Exaggerator is a \"summer long toss\" for me.  Don\'t care where he shows up.  I liked him in the SA Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but with the up and down workouts over the past month, followed by indecision and now maybe a decision to run 1 1/4 off a layoff, it smells too much like Texas Red to me.  Texas Red still hasn\'t crossed the finish line in last year\'s Travers....

Looking forward to the weekend.

Jim

[trackjohn]

Question...what does one do with the Navarro horses that are supposed to run in Saratoga this weekend?

[mjellish]

Surprising to me that Romans is sending Brody to Haskell vs going in the Jim Dandy.  I would think Saratoga would play much more to his running style than Monmouth.  That horse has cost me a lot of money this year.  I expected him to move forward off a very forward looking line after the Bluegrass, but he never got going in the Derby and didn\'t move forward at all in the Belmont.  He\'s likely to get overlooked in the betting and it is going to take all my willpower to lay off him until he shows he me he has actually moved forward rather than betting him on the come again.

[johnnym]

Only reason I could think of is there seems to be more speed in the Haskell then in the Dandy.

[richiebee]

Navarro has 2 in 7th race Thursday...

[jimbo66]

MJ,

Always tough when u get \"married\" to a horse.   Wouldn\'t want to talk bad about a horse that will go off a price, but it seems like the bluegrass has turned out to be a weak race.  I know cherry wine ran second in the slop off a vicious pace in the preakness, but other than that Brody has been mediocre to poor twice since that race and without seeing a figure, I think my man Sam was poor in s weak field Saturday (lost to tale of verve who blew start and was wider on both turns - and not fast)

I guess if the pace heats up in the haskell, which is very possible, Brody will pick them up late.  But do t think much of him as a horse.

Good luck

Jim

[FrankD.]

MJ,

He did the same thing with Keen Ice last year, chased Pharaoh at the shore and caught him at the Spa!

[mjellish]

Yeah, I know.  Romans likes the Haskell.

Got to say though that Brody really, really fooled me.  His sheet said he looked ready to explode in the KY Derby.  I\'ve learned not to chase a horse though, and I\'ve also learned not to chase beating one too.  

On that note, Songbird made a believer out of me.  Maybe the new top she just ran will finally take some starch out of her.  I dunno though.  To play against her and for her to bounce I would also want to know she was not acting/working up to par in the AM.  Or when entered I would want to see one or two verified speed horses to try and hook her early and a very good stalker/closer to come get her late.  Maybe the Alabama will shape up that way.  Maybe someone will enter a rabbit...  In any case, that was a very, very good performance she gave on Saturday, and I admired it for what it was.  I give a lot of Kudos to the connections for shipping her out east and pointing for the Alabama when most would have stayed home and run at Del Mar.

[TempletonPeck]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As for a horse who it seems isn\'t running this
> weekend, Exaggerator is a \"summer long toss\" for
> me.  Don\'t care where he shows up.  I liked him in
> the SA Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but
> with the up and down workouts over the past month,
> followed by indecision and now maybe a decision to
> run 1 1/4 off a layoff, it smells too much like
> Texas Red to me.  Texas Red still hasn\'t crossed
> the finish line in last year\'s Travers....
>
> Looking forward to the weekend.
>
> Jim

Per David Grening of DRF, Exaggerator to run in the Haskell. I don\'t pay for DRF+ so I don\'t know who he got it from..

[Wrongly]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/213654/exaggerator-to-run-in-haskell

Funny what rain in the forecast can do.  T.

[big18741]

Brody\'s Cause headed to the West Virginia Derby next weekend.