Fate of Smaty Jones is in the Ride

[ronwar]

I think whether Smarty wins the Belmont or not will come down to if Stewart Elliot moves to soon.  Anybody remembers Kent ride on Real Quiet, Stevens ride on Silver Charm, or Antleys ride on Charismatic?  I\'m not saying any of those were deserving triple crown candidates, but with a more patient ride I think all could have won.

Will Elliot be over confident as the others and push the button too soon only to be run down in the final strides?  My thought is, there are not that many 1 1/2 mile races, and jockeys that are on pressing horse tend to move a little to soon. Whats good for a 1 1/4 is not good for a 1 1/2.

We all know who the best horse is...but then again so was Real Quiet

[Silver Charm]

Your stealing my Thunder with this one.

I\'m still going to hold off until next week.

Nice Post

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Before you can speculate regarding a premature move it might be necessary to ascertain who the leaders are likely to be. I\'m not certain theres a set field yet and I haven\'t begun to analyze pace.

In projecting premature moves I\'d analyze the moves in the first two legs. Did you see anything premature about them? Granted the distance is a quarter mile greater and Lion Heart apparently won\'t be in the race.

The other factor to consider is John Servis. Does anyone really think this man doesn\'t know what he\'s doing? He was fully cognizant of Demon\'s Begone and the bleeding issue in the Kentucky Derby that may of cost that horse a huge bonus. That race was 1987 if I\'m not mistaken. I\'m certain John Servis and Stewart Elliot will view many races and discuss strategy. I seriously doubt there will be a premature move. I think its much more likely that theres a bounce, lack of affinity for the track or hitting the wall, like Funny Cide may have done.

[ronwar]

CtC,

Don\'t get me wrong, I think Smarty just may well win by the length of the stretch.  I\'m just of the opinion that Smarty has predominately dominated his races from just past the far turn to just into the stretch.  Elliot has made that same move at every distance that has:
1) Put him at the throat of the pacesetter
2) allowed him to kick away from everyone else
3) have the race decided by mid-stretch

It actually reminds me of my favorite horse Best Pal in his 4 yr old year, when he was really good.  He would make a huge move on the far turn and at the top of the stretch the race was over.

All I\'m saying is, if makes that same move at around the same time, ala Real Quiet. Once he reaches mid-stretch, Victory Gallop er Hard Rock Ten may be hitting his best stride.
 
Or of course, Smarty can hit mid-stretch leading by 15 widening links and we can all get goose-bumps. lol