Saturday Night Pick Thread

[sekrah]

Playing the Foster card boys.  Let\'s see if I can stay awake before the main event goes off.  Let\'s start with the warmups.


CD-1

Really like #3 Place Des Vosges a lot . Turf breeding is all on the dam side. Awful start last time and passed a pile of horses. Looks like she\'s screaming to run a much better number than the last.  A pair crushes these.

Don\'t like Ellens Birthday\'s long-term conditioning. I see a bounce off the last.
Don\'t see Curricula liking the turf.
Part Time Model too slow
Not buying Goose Lemon Drop\'s March Fair Grounds figure.
Dream To Dream is a threat to move forward off the last.  Definitely use her in your exotics.
Wouldn\'t fault anyone for gambling on Shoni.
Hopefully this Maker first timer doesn\'t screw me.

[Airnate012]

Gun Runner seems like the pick 5 single.

[sekrah]

CD-2

Put a line through #6 Ivy Bell\'s Keeneland race where she set some wicked fractions and she looks very difficult to beat here.

Laxfield Road looks like a bounce.
Tessa\'s Treat and Covey Trace are interesting and I won\'t knock anyone for trying their prices.
Northern Michigan feels like a bounce to me. Underlay.
High Legend is probably an overlay at 17-1.

Making a stand with the 6.  Looks much the best.

[sekrah]

CD-3

#5 Corby switching to the dirt here makes a ton of sense. She ran pretty good in three turf starts despite zero turf influence on either side of the pedigree. Should move forward on the dirt.  Brendan Walsh spits out a bunch of tops on turf to dirt switches.

Impossible to give anyone else serious consideration over Romans\' favorite #2 Ma Can Do It, but she could be in the middle of an 0-2-X.

[Michael D.]

sek, who do you like in the 6th?

[sekrah]

CD-4

Lots of firsties.  The #2 Itsthebourbontalkn really jumped out at me in the post parade. Non effort in his debut last August for Motion.  Awesome workout tab coming in. Might make a small play on him.

Michael D, I\'ll let you know about the 6th shortly.  I didn\'t have a chance to pre-handicap.  Going as the card rolls by.

[sekrah]

CD-5

Going to play a cold exacta, Gun Runner w/ Cutacorner.  This combo is paying about 6-1 right now.  Cutacorner has yet to break through his 2yo top but looks to be coming around to a good number.  I thought he got a couple of terrible rides from Birzer in those TC preps at Oaklawn. Gets Stevens here.

[sekrah]

CD-6

#6 Brooklynsway is the clear value.  Exploded for a new top on dirt at Keeneland and had every right to back up at CD in the next one but instead ran pretty strong again.

Betting the 6 to win with a 1-6 exacta saver.

[Michael D.]

nice try with the 6 horse there. good 9-1 shot. gets the best figure in the race, easily.

[sekrah]

Dominating 2nd place tonight.  6 definitely ran the furthest.  I need a winner soon.

[sekrah]

CD-7 Wise Dan S.

Even with the Pimlico dead rail factor, I really dislike Za Approval.  Horse always just seems to hang in races he should have won the past couple years and will lose some ground here.  7/2 seems awful to me.

I\'m going to try Pleuven.  Has a number just a touch slower than Pizza, and with his tactical speed should be able to overcome wide post.  They\'ve had trouble keeping this one on the track and it\'ll be the first time he\'s run 3rd off the layoff, so it\'ll be interesting to see how good he really is.

[dcost328]

Nice one, thanks!

The Preakness dead turf rail project has been horrific thus far.

[sekrah]

Perfect ride.  Thank you Channing Hill.  Needed that one.

[sekrah]

CD-8

Bradester seems like an obvious Thorograph choice and at 12-1, but the extra 1/8th mile here has to really worry you with this one.  He does have a good one at 1 1/16th at Monmouth, but most of his best races have been at 1 mile and 1 1/8 does not fit his breeding. Real easy to see this one take the field into the stretch and just hang.

I\'m not going to try to beat Effinex here.  I\'m going to try to take advantage of an exacta pool imbalance and play Effinex-International Star cold.

Star should run a good one here and save all the ground.  Eagle\'s the only major threat but he could easily lose lots of ground.

[johnnym]

LMAO who hasn\'t