Gettysburg impact

[jimbo66]

No comment on the board yet about Gettysburg being entered and the impact on the race flow (and result)

I realize that on the TG board a pseudo-rabbit is sort of irrelevant as pace is generally viewed as a minimal factor (since class handicapper was banned).  But I am guessing many of us factor it in.

One thought.  I am running the risk of falling in love with my original assessment and not reassessing with the new variable of Gettysburg, but my first read is that it doesn\'t hurt destin or Stradivari, despite conventional wisdom that it will.   I don\'t think either Destin or Stradivari are true front runners.   I think both seem to be just fine with a target.   I think having s longshot front runner may make make jockeys on mid pack and closers feel more comfortable letting the pace just go up front (whereas with Destin / Stradivari running 1-2 I could have seen Kent with a premature move)

Last year, I had the quasi-brilliant/moronic pick-4 strategy to get live to the two horses I thought could beat AP, materiality and frosted.   After going 3 deep, 2 deep and 3 deep to get Tepin, honor code and slumber, was feeling ill looking at a gigantic payoff to AP that I didn\'t have.  

Probably gonna not learn my lesson and try to get live to two horses with solid numbers and a good race flow (Destin and Stradivsri).   I don\'t think exaggerator is AP and he won\'t have the huge race setup edge that AP did.  And I think the odds will be about the same (aP was 4/5 last year, exaggerator likely the same this year)

Feels like a race to take a shot.

Jim

[HP]

I don\'t think pace is \"generally viewed as a minimal factor.\"  It\'s a matter of how you express it.  The problem is a lot of people talk about pace exclusively in terms of the clock/time.  To interpret TGs it\'s also (more?) a function of potential ground loss.  

If Gettysburg is lone speed he is more likely to save ground.  And horses that have to close and weave through traffic are more likely to lose ground.  Based on your idea, if Destin and Stradivari \"let the pace go up front\" they risk having TWO disadvantages.  They have to catch a horse loose on the lead and possibly weave through traffic and lose ground to do it.  If Gettysburg gets loose and hugs the rail all the way around the other horses can run much better TG figures and lose.

[ruthlessman]

I agree to an extent.
Stradivari might lose ground on 2nd turn (1 path) and do not foresee a traffic issue for him, based on where I believe he will be placed.
In this race I want to settle my horse, establish position, tip out at 3/8ths and hope we are good enough. Just like his Keeneland race. Problem is, this bunch is not   the bunch he faced in Keeneland.
Obviously this is just my opinion, but I think Stradivari has a big shot here.

[jimbo66]

HP,

Not sure where to even start with your post.

if you think Gettysburg wiring is a risk that anybody is seriously worried about, you must have missed almost all of Gettysburg\'s races.  

Getting to the lead and setting the pace being just a matter of ground loss is circa 1970\'s sheets reading... (maybe early 80\'s).  There is all kinds of stuff out there.  Pace figures, compression figures, etc.etc.  Plenty of science to attest to the value of setting a slow pace vs fast pace.  Very hard to quantify relative to sheets methodology, which is exact in the sense that ground loss can be definitively measured (unless you are on the Rags staff, in which case it can be roughly estimated only apparently....)(

Gettysburg being in the race is one extra horse,  Sure, it could cause more traffic, but what, 1/11th more traffic?  Let me know how you are factoring the potential extra traffic into your handicapping.

Don\'t think Gettysburg is gonna D\'Tara the field, but you never know.  

Good luck

Jim

[Tavasco]

It is puzzling to me that Gburg has been entered in this race. Hard to believe that any save the Kool Aide Krew would give him any chance of hitting the board.

My mind wanders then to Pletcher\'s strategy? The Pletcher barn now appears to have the first platoon and sufficient horsepower to fill available space on the inside of the second turn. Such a Pletcher Phalanx could be designed to force traffic and ground loss for late runners. My guess riding instructions ... block the inside paths.

What should we think about the early rankness of Stradvari in the Preakness? Adding Gburg seems to create a potential for a repeat performance. To his credit Stradavari didn\'t collapse in the Preakness, seemingly a strong horse with some upside. Rank and marathon not a good combo for me.

[HP]

Hey Jim - I wasn\'t really addressing Gettysburg\'s chance of winning as much as you saying \"generally it\'s (pace) is a minimal factor\" on the TG board.  It\'s a factor period.  You can address it with TGs or other pace figures if you like but you can certainly integrate it into TG handicapping.  I think the problem comes up when people say things about pace based on visuals or other things you can't really back up.  I liked the 70s so I\'m cool with that part!

Traffic could be a big deal if Gettysburg gets a slow early lead and everybody waits?  Sometimes in the big dances a lot of jocks have a wait and see approach.  

As for Gettysburg\'s chance of winning it\'s a time of year when horses improve and he should be a big price.  He\'s had a break, in the ballpark with improvement and some racing luck, plus he\'s facing a favorite that has thrown down a lot of big numbers in a row.  Can\'t say anything more just yet.

[jbelfior]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> HP,
>
> Not sure where to even start with your post.
>
> if you think Gettysburg wiring is a risk that
> anybody is seriously worried about, you must have
> missed almost all of Gettysburg\'s races.  
>
> Getting to the lead and setting the pace being
> just a matter of ground loss is circa 1970\'s
> sheets reading... (maybe early 80\'s).  There is
> all kinds of stuff out there.  Pace figures,
> compression figures, etc.etc.  Plenty of science
> to attest to the value of setting a slow pace vs
> fast pace.  Very hard to quantify relative to
> sheets methodology, which is exact in the sense
> that ground loss can be definitively measured
> (unless you are on the Rags staff, in which case
> it can be roughly estimated only apparently....)(
>
> Gettysburg being in the race is one extra horse,
> Sure, it could cause more traffic, but what,
> 1/11th more traffic?  Let me know how you are
> factoring the potential extra traffic into your
> handicapping.
>
> Don\'t think Gettysburg is gonna D\'Tara the field,
> but you never know.  
>
> Good luck
>
> Jim


D\'Tara was in the race to win, not to set it up for someone else. Was relaxed early and kept going. No reason to believe a sharp outfit such as Winstar actually believe this colt can wire this race, relaxed or not.

In the race for 2 reasons---(1) Exaggerator and (2) Creator.

If you like either of the Pletchers, my guess is your price just doubled. People who want to beat the favorite will be knocking each other over to bet the Brody\'s Causes, Creators, Lannis, Governor Malibu\'s,etc.


Good Luck,
Joe B.