Belmont Thoughts

[jimbo66]

Been awhile between posts.   Hope all are well.

I see some things on the board haven\'t changed over the past two years.  FrankD still the best weatherman east of the Mississippi, RichieB the best writer east or west of the Mississippi, Miff/mike still has never been wrong about anything, rags still coming up with incongruous figures in big spots yet the Jim jones like followers are not deterred, and of course the California figs for TG look a tad slow......

A few thoughts on the belmont, although of course not all entries are clear at this point and we still have to have the draw (although this is one race the draw seems to be less relevant).

The conversation has to start with Exaggerator.   Disclaimer - I have bet him four straight times now, cashing twice, so I am a bit biased.   I guess he can run another \"0\", which makes him tough here.   That said, could there have been a better scripted trip than the one he got in the Preakness.  Crazy duel up front with some questionable to dumb tactics by several front runners, followed up by a hall of fame inside out ride/trip from Kent D.   With all that, he won easy, but was maintaining late, not drawing away.   I know the figures sort of say he is as good on a dry track as he is wet, but even if that is true, it seems others regress on the wet track making him stronger relatively speaking.   Now he has to go 1 1/2 miles in a relatively paceless race.   Does Kent move earlier or does he continue what has been working.  At 4/5 or so, there see, to be enough questions for me to look elsewhere.

I can\'t believe what I am about to write, as I am president of the \"hate Pletcher\" club, but it feels like the two best alternatives are both trained by him.   I give both Destin and Stradivari a big shot.   First off, the one race where betting Pletcher hasn\'t been a triple crown disaster has been the belmont.  He also seems to get it that the longer race makes early position and speed more dangerous.  He had his jockey put commissioner on the lead (still can\'t believe Jim Covello called that) as well as closer whose name escapes me the mine that bird / summer bird year.   As the entries stand now, there are zero front runners.   Destin and Stradivari should sit 1/2 or 2/1 and set a mild pace.   Both have numbers strong enough to win with good trips, even if exaggerator fires a \"0\".  Destin has now had 11 weeks since his 0 and Stradivari ran well in the Preakness considering the experience he was giving away.   His figure 2 back is very competitive. Pletcher, who lives by giving rest to his horses, sel dome runs back fast.   As much as I hate him, if he decides to let Stradivari run back on 3 weeks rest, it would be a huge sign of confidence.


I know suddenbreskingnews looks good on Tg, but hate his running style in what looks like a paceless race.

Good luck.   Haven\'t read anything on the undercard, but assume it has to be good.

Jim

[colt]

No thoughts on the Belmont w/o the position draw/TG#s, but welcome back.  Was it you who turned $2,160 into 1.4M at the Meadowlands?

[TGJB]

He\'s baaaaaaack....

I have to leave the office, but there were plenty of California horses that ran on Derby and Preakness weekends, look at what they ran as a group relative to their Cali numbers. Ex among them.

[johnnym]

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2016/06/01/sheet-music-has-different-tune-for-destin.aspx

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

WELCOME BACK!

All it took was a Travers day string to get your juices flowing. I hope you and yours are all well.

I have to laugh in one of my posts I said something to the effect of missing our dear friend Jimbo. Someone sent me a private message and asked if you had died?

Glad to see you\'re still kicking. Now get your butt up to the Spa this year.

Frank D.

[jimbo66]

Frank

Thanks.   After a 2 year hiatus, will be back at the spa.  Will private message u and richieB when dates are confirmed.  I didn\'t die, the business I was in did, and this is a tough hobby to have when cash is tight.

TGJB - I was only kidding.  I noticed particularly on derby day that the California horses who were bet off big beyers were awful all day long.

Colt - I am more likely to turn 1.5 million into $2100 then the opposite....

Best

Jim

[TGJB]

Two things. First, Haskins writes really fast. He called me around 6:00, waking me from napping on my desk.

Second, from an entertainment point of view, it doesn\'t get much funnier than seeing the Jake house horse discussed with TG figures.

[smalltimer]

Jimbo, good to see you back again.
Hey, did you see that Zenyatta and that other mare were inducted into the Hall of Fame?  Just kidding, welcome back and sorry business soured, at least you have your health, right?

[richiebee]

Hey Jimbo great to hear you are OK and that you will be returning to the Spa.

After seeing that you intended to return, I remembered the year we tried to
beat top turf mare and defending champ Forever Together (123 lbs)
(Sheppard/Leparoux)(4/5) in the 2009 Diana. We all (I think NC Tony also) liked
Caribbean Sunset (118 lbs)(Clement/ Dominquez)(9/1) coming off a win at Parx
where she hung up a low TG #. The 5 pounds CS was getting were somehow
counterbalanced by carrying the weight of the wagers of three true T-generates.
Dominguez gets caught in traffic, takes the lead briefly, but we get beat a
head, I remember it like it was yesterday.

Where I\'ve really missed Jimbo the last couple of years has been as the
\"rabbit\" at TGAB\'s Saturday seminars, trying to provide some prompting so that
the seminar has a little more pace to it. One year TGAB insisted on giving a
rundown on each runner entered on the card (including scratched horses), and if
it weren\'t for Jimbo prompting the pace the seminar would have ended sometime
after post time for race 2.

As to the Belmont undercard, some big names which you can check in the stakes
nominations area of the \"Horseman\'s\" section of the NYRA website. The
biggest marquee name might be international turf star Flintshire, scheduled to
go for Chad Brown in the Manhattan on Belmont Day. Should be a great day of
racing given some decent weather and minimum intrusion from Chris Kay.

Great that you are back and thank you for the kind words. Hope the family is
doing well.

[mjellish]

Welcome back Jimbo!

[jbelfior]

Hi Jim:
Welcome back.

Picturing the same pace scenario with Exaggerator making a Real Quiet type move on the turn to go by the Pletchers. Destin, not finished yet, comes back at him in mid-stretch and they are inseparable as they go past the 1/16th pole. SBN is closing on them, but his running style has left him with too much to do......and at the wire it\'s.....

too close to call.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Leamas57]

and here comes Lani...

Lani wins the Belmont Stakes!

[jimbo66]

Thanks guys for the nice words.  Good to be back.

Richie, I do remember that Diana.  It definitely was the weight that held back CAribbean Sunset.....  

I miss Ramon.  Still think he will go down way under appreciated because he didn\'t travel to the bigger circuits when the better horses left town.  Feel he was the best of the last 15 years.  I know impossible to prove, but man, he seemed to always be in the right spot, saving ground, with something left late.  Javier has periods where he rides the turf course like Ramon rode it almost all the time.  

Pletcher committed with Stradivari now.  Still no other speeds lined up. Really wondering if Kent tries to change the running style of Exaggerator and stays a bit closer.  

Too early for Frank D to say whether we get a dry track for the Belmont?  

Jim

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

Ditto your comments about Ramon. I remember TGJB at one of my early seminars saying giving him the rail in a 2 turn race should be accompanied by a 5 lbs weight penalty to be fair to the rest of the field. Miff always referred to him as Ramon \"+2 lengths\" Dominguez. Javier is heads and shoulders above anyone else out there now on a consistent basis. Kent D. Wide Mike & Gary Stevens still show occasional flashes of why they are enshrined on Union Ave. Did you see Miff\'s post about having Trump deport your boy Frenchy? LMAO

The good news IMHO on the jock front is there are 5 on the rise showing talent and heading towards reliability. The Ortiz brothers and Manny Franco along with 2/3 of the French connection Geroux & Pratt.

Way too early for Belmont weather for sure BUT there are some possibilities of doom and gloom?

Frank D.

[Topcat]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo,
>
> Ditto your comments about Ramon. I remember TGJB
> at one of my early seminars saying giving him the
> rail in a 2 turn race should be accompanied by a 5
> lbs weight penalty to be fair to the rest of the
> field. Miff always referred to him as Ramon \"+2
> lengths\" Dominguez. Javier is heads and shoulders
> above anyone else out there now on a consistent
> basis. Kent D. Wide Mike & Gary Stevens still show
> occasional flashes of why they are enshrined on
> Union Ave. Did you see Miff\'s post about having
> Trump deport your boy Frenchy? LMAO
>
> The good news IMHO on the jock front is there are
> 5 on the rise showing talent and heading towards
> reliability. The Ortiz brothers and Manny Franco
> along with 2/3 of the French connection Geroux &
> Pratt.
>
> Way too early for Belmont weather for sure BUT
> there are some possibilities of doom and gloom?
>
> Frank D.


Ortiz Bros. impressive at home . . . but they still have to show their best stuff on the road, on a consistent basis.   Not.   Yet.