Cherry Wine can be your Cherry Bomb!!

Silver Charm · May 20, 2016, 06:41:39 AM

Scooted up a sloppy rail for his 9 length maiden win. Was a handful in his 1X Gulf win. Was more than respectable at Oaklawn and Keeneland against other Derby horses. Probably a blessing (would have been a thrill of the lifwtine for the owner however)he didn\'t make it to the Derby because it gives him enough rest for a good summer campaign whether it\'s in these or on grass. Horse is training well. He will fire. Generally a sloppy track can result in a spread out field. At 12 to 15-1 he is a must use on your tickets. The 20-1 ML isn\'t happening. #dontwewish

TempletonPeck · May 20, 2016, 06:46:45 AM

We now have what, 4-5 threads on this one horse, each with the same 1-2 posts?

Silver Charm · May 20, 2016, 06:58:23 AM

So what\'s your problem? Your recent opinion was he was too slow to win. I got some insight from the connections the horse is gonna run well. Perhaps I should have kept it to myself

TempletonPeck · May 20, 2016, 07:05:39 AM

Please, by all means share the information, I just think it would lead to a more cohesive disucussion if we had one thread with 15 posts rather than 5 with 3.

And yes, I continue to think he\'s too slow to win, but I don\'t recall ever saying he was a total toss-out bound for the glue factory or a hamburger stand at a rural county fair.

HP · May 20, 2016, 07:06:25 AM

Thanks for passing along info, horse has not really backed up yet and Romans\' horses are firing.

Silver Charm · May 20, 2016, 07:13:03 AM

Romans won this race with Shackleford off 2 weeks turnaround. Has Brodys Cause resting and waiting for Belmont. Beat American Pharoah with Keen Ice. Seemed to do the impossible with Little Mike. Can play with the Big Boys when he has a nice horse. This is a nice horse.....

jbelfior · May 20, 2016, 12:33:22 PM

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Romans won this race with Shackleford off 2 weeks
> turnaround. Has Brodys Cause resting and waiting
> for Belmont. Beat American Pharoah with Keen Ice.
> Seemed to do the impossible with Little Mike. Can
> play with the Big Boys when he has a nice horse.
> This is a nice horse.....

Silver:
Is your enthusiasm based on his (1) slop win vs maidens at CD in November (2) Romans barn doing well lately (3) Romans has won big races before or (4) all of the above?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

sekrah · May 20, 2016, 03:05:05 PM

Absolutely impossible to toss Cherry Wine from the exotics, much like I said it was impossible to toss Gun Runner in the Derby for many of the same reasons.

1. Powerful pattern.
2. Almost guaranteed inside trip
3. Positive pace scenario shapes up.
4. Loves the slop.
5. Unlike Gun Runner, you\'re getting a good price

Horse is definitely an overlay.

TempletonPeck · May 20, 2016, 03:31:45 PM

I guess I\'ll take the other side (I\'m leaving out #2, 3, and 4, because I tend to agree on those):

> 1. Powerful pattern.

Agree, the pattern looks nice. Steady improvement, paired tops, and 6 weeks into this. But, how much more do you think he\'s ready to improve? What do you think it takes to win this race? A 1 with a good trip? Maybe even a 0?

In the case of Gun Runner, he\'d only improved 1.5 points from his 2yo top, and his sire\'s average improvement from 2 to 3 was 3.5 points, so a person could very reasonably hope for another 2 point improvement (which is what you got, 2.25 actually). But, with Cherry Wine, he has already improved 2.75 points. His sire is new (so sample size is very small and probably not at all reliable, but it\'s what we have), but gets only a 1.5 point improvement from 2 to 3. So, it\'s much less reasonable to expect such a big jump forward.

Even still, let\'s say that we give him the same 2.75 jump that Gun Runner got, so that means he runs a 2.5. That still leaves him many lengths behind many of these, doesn\'t it?

> 5. Unlike Gun Runner, you\'re getting a good price
>
> Horse is definitely an overlay.

He\'s about 20/1 last I saw.

6 of the 10 other horses in the race have a faster top this year. Of course, some figure to get a worse trip, and some maybe even significantly worse, but there are 4 horses that are four (or more!) points faster than this guy... So now you\'re asking a horse to improve a lot, and you need 3-4 others to not run their best (when at least 1-2 have every right to run their best, if not new tops)... A high price isn\'t always a good price.

By comparison, awesome speed has twice run 2 points faster than Cherry Wine ever has, and is a little better than 2x the price...

big18741 · May 20, 2016, 03:39:43 PM

Ma Can Do It was the Cherry Bomb at 50-1 for Romans.

milwmike · May 20, 2016, 04:07:51 PM

After the race, Romans said he wished he had the exacta, but he didn\'t box it. I can\'t believe that.

T Severini · May 20, 2016, 06:00:42 PM

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Romans won this race with Shackleford off 2 weeks
> turnaround. Has Brodys Cause resting and waiting
> for Belmont. Beat American Pharoah with Keen Ice.
> Seemed to do the impossible with Little Mike. Can
> play with the Big Boys when he has a nice horse.
> This is a nice horse.....

Can\'t disagree that with a wet track he could run well.

To my eye, the Derby is a race where you try to beat a horse like Nyquist, because if you do it can get Youge...........YOUGE!

The Preakness with a sound Derby Champion and shorter field is a tougher Get, so like the implied strategy to come up with a longer priced horse, (Shooter), to make it Return. Derby winners can run out, Super Saver, Orb but I think Nyquist is a better horse than those and we\'d have to get lucky to run Nyquist out.

Heads up though, I\'ll take my handicapping against your inside information, I\'m taking Uncle Lino vs your Cherry Bomb. The Uncle to Mo em down.

Silver Charm · May 21, 2016, 04:04:06 PM

Thanks!! That was a really great analysis...lol

T Severini · May 22, 2016, 02:12:38 PM

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Scooted up a sloppy rail for his 9 length maiden
> win. Was a handful in his 1X Gulf win. Was more
> than respectable at Oaklawn and Keeneland against
> other Derby horses. Probably a blessing (would
> have been a thrill of the lifwtine for the owner
> however)he didn\'t make it to the Derby because it
> gives him enough rest for a good summer campaign
> whether it\'s in these or on grass. Horse is
> training well. He will fire. Generally a sloppy
> track can result in a spread out field. At 12 to
> 15-1 he is a must use on your tickets. The 20-1 ML
> isn\'t happening. #dontwewish

Silver, just want to say \"nice horse\". Your 5 number horse beat my 5 number horse well and you won the heads up challenge. Nice job.

I knew my horse, Uncle Lino, was light on number power but I thought he skip to my lou on that surface...unfortunately Nyquist had the same idea and they both paid the price. Nyquist less so, because he has more bottom.

Nice horse Silver

Silver Charm · May 22, 2016, 03:13:55 PM

He needed some help and he got it. He also faced some adversity and overcame it.

He hit his head on the gate and the break. Got sandwiched into the rail on the far turn and it cost him his air for a couple of strides. Regrouped and did what horse do who are ready to run...he kept running.

Lino was a not bad shot. As Players we have to take them. Look out for Brodys Cause in the Belmont. He beat Exagerator twice last year. Has only really run twice this year. A forward move is coming and he is fresh.