Nyquist vs AP

[johnnym]

Nyquist ran the derby in 2:01:31
AP ran the Derby in 2:03:02
Since 1 second = 6 lengths advantage Nyquist by approx 10 lengths

Ground loss
Nyquist ran 2W and 3W
AP ran 4W and 4W
Since 1W = 2 length\'s around 1 turn advantage AP approx 6 lengths

So Far advantage Nyquist by 4 lengths

Now the last item is track variance.
While watching a video on this site regarding this subject,biggest conclusion I came away with is moisture content,and the ideal moisture content is between 4-12%.

Reflecting back to AP Derby,no rain prior to the race and ideal weather. I do not know how much watering was done,I am assuming though since it was a big race day they had it somewhere between that 4-12%.

Nyquist Derby, down pour prior to the race and the race went of with water still showing on the track.
I am going to have to assume that the moisture content was above the ideal level of 4-12% which in return affected the ideal energy return.

For their Derby Nyquist received a 0.2#-
AP for his Derby received a 3#-
This is a difference of approx 6 lengths difference.

My thought or question is how? How does AP receive the better figure? Only advantage I see for AP is the wide trip which is still not enough to overcome Nyquist,faster time and the slower track.
Unless there is yet another part to this discussion on figure making,to say that Nyquist is not in the same class as AP is no more than Bantering between friends.

John

[T Severini]

I think the track has a story to tell, though I\'m not sure I\'m capable of understanding how you\'ve reduced the ideal surface to a moisture content figure, though we all understand that there is a relationship.

We understand how changing track speed, especially on moisture changing days, is a variable that has to be considered in figure making. But would you agree that even taking a moisture reading is rife with potential misinformation?  The Derby track was wet at extreme wide paths and possibly tacky near the rail. A wide sample would sure appear to contain more moisture than say a rail sample.

[johnnym]

Either way the track for Nyquist Derby had to be less than ideal compared to AP Derby.

[Chas04]

Also - What about factoring in how much AP was pushed in the stretch... or no? We all remember the articles after last years Derby. Victor whipped AP somewhere between 29-33 times in the race. Most of this occurred in that grueling stretch to get past Firing Line. Dortmund and Firing Line were whipped 11 and 9 times during that same stretch run. I have no idea if whipping that much pushes a horse to go even faster...but from all the races I\'ve watched it certainly seems like it does. After Nyquist took the lead he really wasn\'t pushed by Mario much. A little right at the very end but that was it. I know he didn\'t need to....he blew it open by 8 lengths....but it just seems like those things need to be looked at when comparing both Derbys as well.

[clemsonjc]

you are forgetting that this years 3 year old group was slower than last years.  that showed up in a lot of the figures as well as the experts on derby day, this was a \"wide open field\".  to me its comical that so many want to compare the 2, lets wait 4+ weeks and see what happens.  many forget the dominating performance in the BC Classic, and Baffert\'s comments post race, before beyer put out his number, \"andy was that fast enough for you?\" The only shop to have AP that fast early on was this one.  the first horse to win the crown in 37 years and we have more than a few people who want to say Nyquist is as good or better....again its comical...

[johnnym]

Only race I am referring to is the Derby.
I am saying that Nyquist Derby performance was every bit as good as AP Derby performance.
To this point no one has made a point to change my mind.

Also this years Derby was not wide open to me it was Nyquist all along..

[HP]

It\'s cool that you think it was \"Nyquist all along\" but that had to have been based on something besides TG.

[Strike]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It\'s cool that you think it was \"Nyquist all
> along\" but that had to have been based on
> something besides TG.

I would like to replace your \"besides\" with \"instead of.\" Nyqvist looked like a bad bet at 7/2. Terrible bet at 2-1 in a 20 horse field. The line at the Wynn was huge after the race to cash. No salty racetrackers were in that line just those up from the pool to bet and watch that one race. Attractive crowd though.

[HP]

Johnnym I did some checking.  

Here\'s what you said BEFORE the race.  I added in the names of the horses to make this clear.

Date: May 07, 2016 07:19AM

12) The biggie; Really like SBN going in not to crazy about the draw,he is my longshot play as well to win. Creator getting good at the right time all reports are he is full of himself and training good. Nyquist 7-7 can not look the other way.Hass ran the fastest 7f time and the Fastest 1 1/16 time one to beet. Brody cause training forward nice pattern if somehow he can find a pocket going around the first turn save some ground.

3-4-12/11/1-3-10-12/2 (Sudden Breaking News) - 3 (Creator) -13 (Nyquist) -19 (Brody's Cause) for $1 =$48 no whales in this house just a couple of minnows..

After the race this morphed into hitting the tri and keying Nyquist. It\'s one thing to redboard but it\'s another thing to redboard against your own picks. And NOW of course it was Nyquist all along.  

Date: May 07, 2016 11:04PM

My 2 cents.After a rain scare the track went of fast and no need to adjust my tix. I keyed Nyquist as I truly felt he was the best horse coming in.
I hit the tri needed SBN for the Super but loss $$ on the race,very anticlimactic

[johnnym]

Here is the complete list of my bets for the derby.
As you can see the 13 was my key..With a small saver with the 2&3 but the 13 was On all my tix
   4.00   0.00   3.00
2016-05-07   15:32:43   Bet   Churchill   12   Exacta   2.00   1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20/2+13   76.00   0.00   7.00
2016-05-07   15:32:24   Bet   Churchill   12   Exacta   2.00   2+13/1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20   76.00   30.60   293.70
2016-05-07   15:28:12   Bet   Churchill   12   Superfecta   1.00   13/2+3+17+19/2+3+11+17+19/2+3+5+11+15+16+17+19   96.00   0.00   159.00
2016-05-07   15:25:06   Bet   Churchill   12   Trifecta   1.00   2+3+5+11+13+19/2+3+5+11+13+15+16+17+19/2+3   70.00   0.00   255.00
2016-05-07   15:24:21   Bet   Churchill   12   Trifecta   1.00   2+3+5+11+13+15+16+17+19/2+3/2+3+5+11+13+19   70.00   0.00   325.00
2016-05-07   15:23:13   Bet   Churchill   12   Trifecta   1.00   2+3/2+3+5+11+13+19/2+3+5+11+13+15+16+17+19   70.00   0.00   395.00
2016-05-07   15:20:34   Bet   Churchill   12   Trifecta   3.00   2+3+5+11+17+19/2+3+4+5+6+11+15+16+17+18+19/13   180.00   0.00   465.00
2016-05-07   15:19:43   Bet   Churchill   12   Trifecta   3.00   2+3+4+5+6+11+15+16+17+18+19/13/2+3+5+11+17+19   180.00   0.00   645.00
2016-05-07   15:17:17   Bet   Churchill   12   Trifecta   3.00   13/2+3+5+11+17+19/2+3+4+5+6+11+15+16+17+18+19   180.00   260.10   263.10


There is no I gotcha there,I am much more interested in becoming a better handicapper than anything else.
Let\'s keep to task as I am saying that Nyquist Derby was as good if not better than AP..

[HP]

Meaningless.  

All that matters is what you said before the race, which has very little to do with what you are posting now or what you posted immediately after.  You commented on four horses and you gave no indication that Nyquist was a \"key.\"  It read to me like you thought any one of the four had a shot (and none of them were named Exaggerator or Moyhamen).  

You taking credit for knowing it was \"Nyquist all the way\" is like me waking up and taking credit for the sky being blue.  Just total nonsense.

[johnnym]

You are accusing me of red boarding I am showing you I did not.
Agree to disagree.

[P-Dub]

It\'s also possible he changed his opinion after the initial post. That\'s not a crime, and he also posted his bets.

[HP]

Nothing is a \"crime\" PDub but it\'s the definition of red boarding.  Nothing he said before the race amounted to his current comment of \"I had Nyquist all the way.\"

At a glance he lost money hitting the exacta and I would imagine he lost on everything else too but I don\'t have time to do all the math.  Converting this into some kind of victory lap and saying \"I had it all the way\" is ridiculous.

[johnnym]

It\'s not a victory lap and yes I posted I lost $$ on the race.So I will save you the time..
This is about me and trying to understand why AP received the better number and why...