Derby Figs

[ajkreider]

Thanks for putting those up.

Not sure how to read the pattern on Ex\'s sheet.  A paired top off of a paired top?  He\'s got to go back sometime, right.

Destin, Brody, and Lani with sneaky good numbers - Destin\'s the 2nd best is surprise to be sure.  Mo Tom respectable - new top with trouble.

Taris with the figure of the day.  A play against next out off of that one. Catalina Red a big jump but not crazy off of the pairing of previous year\'s top.

P.S. There\'s no way SBN was 1w/1w.  The first turn maybe, but 3-4w turning for home.

[BitPlayer]

True that.  The replay accessible from the Kentucky Derby website has a great aerial view of the second turn.  SBN didn\'t get to the 1 path until he cut the corner turning for home.

[T Severini]

The previous figures appear even more reasonable in consideration of the Derby numbers.

Exaggerator was the 2nd fastest figure.

Mo Tom faces a closers problems, especially in a large field.

Mohaymen ran a nice race all things considered.



ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks for putting those up.
>
> Not sure how to read the pattern on Ex\'s sheet.  A
> paired top off of a paired top?  He\'s got to go
> back sometime, right.
>
> Destin, Brody, and Lani with sneaky good numbers -
> Destin\'s the 2nd best is surprise to be sure.  Mo
> Tom respectable - new top with trouble.
>
> Taris with the figure of the day.  A play against
> next out off of that one. Catalina Red a big jump
> but not crazy off of the pairing of previous
> year\'s top.
>
> P.S. There\'s no way SBN was 1w/1w.  The first turn
> maybe, but 3-4w turning for home.

[miff]

Took a standback look at CD results. Interesting,while the rail did not seem dead, posts 1,2,3 went only 1-39.

[big18741]

Was there enough moisture in the track from the earlier rain to effect some horses good or bad?

[miff]

There are a few pictures which show excessive amounts of dirt/mud stuck to the chest of all the horses except those up front. Shots of standing puddles just before derby also noticed. Track easily could be considered heavily moist for derby.

[T Severini]

miff, I missed the sites rating for the track, but I believe the inside was not ideal.  The jockeys seemed to be avoiding it. Before the next race, I will be analyzing it more closely for possible influence on returning Preakness Starters.

Regarding the moisture in the track, I commented upon it with company immediately before the race. There were non drained areas and as you say horses were spackled. To my eye they were generally up more towards the outer rail.

Nyguist topped and may be vulnerable. I will review the Preakness Archive here from 2012 to get a feel for O\'Neil\'s I\'ll Have
Another heading into the Preakness.

Observant points.

[sekrah]

There\'s an argument to be made that, if you factor in his troubled trips, Suddenbreakingnews has never gone backwards.

[jbelfior]

Is he skipping the Preakness?


Good Luck,
Joe B

[sekrah]

Yep, just seen that a little bit ago that they are pointing him towards the Belmont.

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-brodys-cause-suddenbreakingnews-await-belmont-stakes

[Leamas57]

I\'m disappointed that Sharp Azteca isn\'t going to Maryland. That\'s a fast freaking horse. Put him in the Preakness and Nyquist would have some real competition. There will be some speed in there, but nothing like this guy.

When I saw the first two fractions, I thought he would be toast. .22 and .44? And 1.08 and two? I guess I don\'t blame them for not wanting to run back in two weeks for his first Grade I, but if that horse didn\'t bounce, he would shake up that race: either by winning or screwing up the pace for Ex to close into.

Leamas

[rhagood]

Inside sticky and not the best, Moyhamen was only 1 wide and was climbing badly until he got off the rail and leveled off down the lane.  Had shown this dislike to a sticky track in FL.  One small sample but echoes the premise.  Middle of the track has standing water so that leaves the ground in between as the only good footing. Nyquist tactical advantage help create a perfect trip and also assisted in getting to the best paths as well.

[Topcat]

Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m disappointed that Sharp Azteca isn\'t going to
> Maryland. That\'s a fast freaking horse. Put him in
> the Preakness and Nyquist would have some real
> competition. There will be some speed in there,
> but nothing like this guy.
>
> When I saw the first two fractions, I thought he
> would be toast. .22 and .44? And 1.08 and two? I
> guess I don\'t blame them for not wanting to run
> back in two weeks for his first Grade I, but if
> that horse didn\'t bounce, he would shake up that
> race: either by winning or screwing up the pace
> for Ex to close into.
>
> Leamas


Quite the bouncy CD strip, if one chose the righteous path -- and the Magic Beans never hurt, either.

[T Severini]

rhagood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Inside sticky and not the best, Moyhamen was only
> 1 wide and was climbing badly until he got off the
> rail and leveled off down the lane.  Had shown
> this dislike to a sticky track in FL.  One small
> sample but echoes the premise.  Middle of the
> track has standing water so that leaves the ground
> in between as the only good footing. Nyquist
> tactical advantage help create a perfect trip and
> also assisted in getting to the best paths as
> well.

I like the way you think...gonna keep my eye on you!

[Leamas57]

Well that makes it relative, though. The same track and two seconds faster than Nyquist for six furlongs? Okay his mile was only one second faster, but that\'s four or five lengths.

 Besides, I once heard O\'Neil used magic beans and I suspect Frenchy was feeding his mounts a special chevalier camembert, too.

Leamas