Post Mortem

[richiebee]

My reaction to a chalky edition of the Derby..
How bout that Bartolo Colon!

[FrankD.]

Otherwise known as jug head anemology !!!

[ringato3]

Mike,

Agree for sure.  GunRunner was another (along with Nyquist) that outran their figures (not just TG, but Beyer and others as well).  Got the same trip as Outwork and couldn\'t find Outwork with a telescope at the wire while GunRunner was in it to the wire.  HE fired out hard, pressed a 45 and change half, moved with Nyquist at the top of the stretch and then got leg weary late, which he had a right to do.  He is a nice developing 3 year old.  

Rob

[TGJB]

I don\'t think there is anywhere they can run Gun Runner where I won\'t bet against him next time.

[T Severini]

Bartolo Colon is the real Mr. October!!!

Just reviewed TGraphs sheets via Red Board and I can see why many are pining for the fjords. No argument with the numbers, they are what they are and am in no position to say otherwise.

Maybe I would have favored Outwork, like many here, on the pair of deuces and projected improvement.

Destin had the best number, but maybe here they figured long rest and bounce, which may have happened.

Mor Spirit looked like a play.

I really like the look of Suddenlybreakingnew\'s sheet with the TU and dang was he moving strong late.

Gun Runner looks unplayable on the Sheet, but in a large field saving ground he was on my tickets.

I\'m still high on Mo Tom and believe he will make noise when he gets a clean trip.

[dskidmore1]

Mohaymens biggest problem in the FD was his post position.

[T Severini]

dskidmore1 Wrote:
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> Mohaymens biggest problem in the FD was his post
> position.


He got beat 10 in the Florida Derby by Nyquist and then by about 4 3/4 in the Derby.
 
Mohaymen ran a little flat early, but Nyquist is clearly a better horse right now, don\'t sell him short. We\'ll be looking for holes in the Preakness, but he\'s game.

McLaughlin has put Mohaymen away until the Travers and since he\'s a May foal its a wise move.  He ran a decent race, he just needs some time.

[Paolo]

Old Mr. Boston Wrote:
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> Simple post mortem, the points system has changed
> the Derby for bettors. Without the cheap 2 year
> old speed, chalk will reign supreme and we get a
> result where the best horses run the best, but no
> money is to be made.

Agree. The precocious 2 yo\'s (aka \'cheap speed\'), who previously would have taken some serious dough, are absent. We\'ll see fewer 2 yo\'s with good foundation and good breeding that are just rounding into form for the Derby (a la Giacomo, Charismatic, Mine That Bird, etc.) at juicy mutuels.
The good 3 yo\'s are now almost required to participate in one of the big 4 preps at 1 1/8 to guarantee themselves a spot in the gate, so more of them are meeting in a race before the big one. They have pretty much sorted themselves out. And they are all in good current form, judging by the almost unheard of lack of scratches in the final month this year.
Therefore, I also expect the reign of chalk to continue. No hard data to debate. We\'ll know in another two years.

[miff]

\"EDIT - Also, I can\'t think of a single factor that people waste more time on in the Derby than \"Pace Scenario\". People waste so much time pouring over this point and then it never turns out the way the majority of people expected it to\"


Seriously??the pace scenario played out rather exactly as predicted relative to where most would be the first half mile.Assuming a clean break, SC and Nyquist were right where they figured along with a few others.

[miff]

Also time to put a fork in the dosage index and, to a lesser extent, distance breeding. Nyquist yet another heavily sprint bred on immediate dam side, believe that\'s 3 years in a row for Derby winners.

[HP]

The pace scenario did indeed play out exactly as anticipated.  And when I saw the fractions I thought the race would collapse and I would be cashing tickets.  Gun Runner holding on for third tells me more about the race than Nyquist winning.