Is SJ a freak, or is this a bad crop?

[fasteddie]

As a Philly native, I STILL don\'t believe in this horse; yes , he has beaten them all, but he has yet to run FAST....time-wise that is!

Other than his 7F race at 2, you would have to buy into Smarty running on deep tracks with high varients in all of his starts. Could it be  this is just a bad crop, or circumstances (injuries, key horses missing training, etc..)

Thoughts??

[beyerguy]

I think someone is hustling you if you believe that BS fasteddie

[Silver Charm]

The Answer is:

Both

[kev]

Well when he kills them in the BEL by say oh 18L, maybe then?? I think after he wins the BEL they might race him twice more the last being in the BC.

[Bham41]

Post Positioning if you look at the winners in most races they are next to the Morning line with odds of 12-1 or in this case even greater odds.  Combined with a wide area of 10-1 or less odds to the other side especially noticable for a four wide area like this race.  This is a consistent pattern in any race and being the favorite or the least favorite doesn\'t change the winning odds significantly
Look for yourself at any race card the odds of the PP next to the 12-1 is astronomically higher than the norm look at Hollywood Park for May 8th Race 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10 all hold to the pattern 70 percent win ratio. Or look at your own misses and see how many of them were beat by post position factors.


6 Sir Shackleton  30-1
7 Smarty Jones    8-5
8 Imperialism     5-1
9 Eddington       8-1
10 Rock Hard Ten  6-1



Post Edited (05-16-04 16:59)

[miff]

SJ IS A REALLY NICE HORSE, AND A FREAK NEXT TO THE \"COMMON\" BUNCH HE IS EFFORTLESSLY DUSTING EACH RACE.

[Bham41]

I noticed for the Derby they drew order then selected post position as there number came up.  On the smaller races do they do this too and do they pick the whole day at once.  Say would Zito pick 5 PP all day long.   Trying to look for a reason PP\'s come in consistently race after race on the pick 3, 4 and 6\'s.