Danzing Candy

TheBull · April 29, 2016, 03:21:56 PM

While a poster made a good comparison of Destin to Orb in 2013, I will keep that theme going.....Is Danzing Candy coming into the race similar to the way Palace Malice came into the Belmont? PM, a son of Curlin, steadily improving with each race albeit, slower than others, caught a horribly sloppy track in KY Mike Smith let him run off hopelessly, only to return fresh with rest, a dry track, and a better set up to score in NY. Seems DC coming into the race off a similar flop where he cooked himself. Granted that\'s his style and PM sat off in NY (not to mention TAP going from Ky to Ny).....but at the price and a more friendly pace with that flop out of the way, why can\'t history repeat itself?

jbelfior · April 29, 2016, 04:59:12 PM

For two reasons that I can think of (1) DC is not a son of Curlin and (2) prior to the Derby,Palace Malice had already indicated he could relax off of the speed.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

ringato3 · April 29, 2016, 05:17:08 PM

The Bull,

He can. He is a very viable longshot in the race.

Joe B.,

Palace Malice pressed a very fast pace in the Belmont, going 1 1/2. And DC doesn\'t have to, and SHOULD not rate in the Derby. He is the clear speed.

Rob

Focus959 · April 29, 2016, 05:39:12 PM

Palace Malice freaked with blinkers on in the Derby. They were off for the Belmont and I crushed that race.

jerry · April 29, 2016, 10:02:50 PM

DC is reportedly a head case. If he came unglued in front of the SA Derby crowd, imagine what he\'ll do in KY? Rank speed. Only proven at 1 1/16 mi.

boardedup · April 29, 2016, 10:53:30 PM

Why would DC ever be asked to rate? He\'s the clear speed here. Is he as good as PM, probably not, but he doesn\'t need to be, this crop is slow, period.

At ~30-1 I personally see this horse as being the best value play in many many moons.

I mean arguing against him basically means you like a slower horse with a trip/pace disadvantage in the case of about 15 others.

He may finish up the track, but I\'ll still sleep well on saturday

TheBull · April 30, 2016, 05:21:56 AM

Yes true on both accounts Joe B.....I did not mean both were sons of Curlin, but it was a reference to both being by a young sire, whose better races came later at 3 and beyond. I remember Twirling winning a turf route at DMR at 3 and then running huge in the Malibu in December.

jbelfior · April 30, 2016, 05:37:23 AM

I knew what you meant regarding a son of Curlin.

I agree that Twirling was a runner. Fast early if I remember correctly. I\'m far from a pedigree expert but that combined with the Songandaprayer on the dam side and from what I have seen doesn\'t add up for me.

Besides, with all the chatter I have heard about him (not only on this board), seriously doubting you see 20-1 on him. The lone speed in a slow field, hated the slop in last, expect to run back to prior number angles are all over the place.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

JEB · April 30, 2016, 07:04:53 AM

I also would be surprised if he makes 20-1. Everyone seems to love him. Hard not to like the West Coasters this year. They seem to be stronger than their eastern counterparts.

TheBull · April 30, 2016, 07:42:58 AM

All good points. At 6/1 the negatives are what id focus on, but at 15/1-20/1 there are enough positives to get excited. The cali horses being superior is part of my logic. There are 4 cali horses (Nyq, Exag, Mor Sp, and DC) and if it\'s true that they are a superior group (and I think they are), DC is the longest price of them, and has beaten them/run well vs them recently, Nyq excluded. It appears from Outwork\'s training he is going slower early and finishing strong late. Leads me to think they are not looking to hook up early in a duel with DC. Outwork is a load and really gets over the ground so easily. Seems to be doing fantastic from all my reports fwiw.

Speaking of Outwork....boy there are some major differences in Rags vs TG sheets on this one, but I will let TGJB hit on that in the seminar if he chooses (another free seminar tease for ya Jerry).

miff · April 30, 2016, 08:46:10 AM

It is nearly impossible for a horse to get a big fig on Rags without sustaining substantial ground loss....BRILLIANT!

jbelfior · April 30, 2016, 10:09:06 AM

Outlook is being asked to do a lot in a short time. Repole a St.John\'s guy. Wood was primary in their plans.
Is that what one wants next week, especially after 2 gut busters one being at Tampa.
.....and the .023 batting Toddster thrown in for kicks.

Good Luck,
Joe B

boston · April 30, 2016, 10:45:56 AM

Did the Rags miss the Wood again? My thought is that it is hard to mess up the Wood this year. The slowest one could make the Wood number is pair Outwork\'s last number. In doing this only Trojan improves and all other healthy 3 year olds go backwards.

Given ground lost Beyer has the Wood the same as TG.

Chas04 · May 01, 2016, 06:59:09 AM

The Rags gave Outwork an 8 for Tampa and an 11 for his Wood. Absolutely huge regression.

miff · May 01, 2016, 07:11:18 AM

Chad,

The way Rags makes figs,can see it but neither fig is close to being reflective of Outwork\'s performances or the dynamics of either race. Both figs are not even close to reconciling with the other credible fig makers or the adjusted clock/pace adj,way too slow.

If you believe RAGS, the Wood was won with like a TG 7 and an adjusted Beyer of like 85.....hard to swallow, notwithstanding where Outwork finishes on Sat.

Mike