Any love for Carina Mia in the Oaks?

[Agastache]

Carina Mia is a daughter of Malibu Moon from a mare that produced Grade 1 winner Miss Match.  Miss Match won the 9 furlong Santa Margarita and was a salty foe in Argentina.

She stamped herself as a potential superstar with a crushing victory in a maiden at Keeneland over Breeders Cup weekend. A victory that earned her a top ThoroGraph fig.  She followed that up with a Golden Rod Stakes win over Stageplay, going 8.5 furlongs.

I thought Carina Mia\'s effort in the Ashland was ok. She appeared to be a bit headstrong through the first 1/2 mile of the race and was tackled going into the far turn by both Cathryn Sophia and Rachel\'s Valentina, fading in the final sixteenth on a track that wasn\'t necessarily kind to front runners.

I have no stats to back this up, so this is only an assertion (sorry), but I believe that many of the Payson Park horses that are making their 2016 debut at Keeneland have been short horses. There was a quarantine at Payson that precluded many stabled there from getting a Keeneland prep in.  Perhaps, Carina Mia was one of those. (just a guess)

If she draws in and if she works well coming up to the race, I think Carina Mia will be much stronger than her Ashland performance showed. A return to her top will likely land her in the winner\'s circle.  More importantly, she should be a price, maybe 10-1 or more? Rachel\'s Valentina, Land Over Sea and Weep No More will get a lot of interest at the window.

I\'m just spitballing tonight and this is what I came up with. What say you?

[ringato3]

AgastachE

A couple things here:

1.  Zero chance she doesn\'t get in if connections want to run and she is healthy.

2.   Carina Mia will be one of the top 4 or 5 betting choices.   You aren\'t getting 10-1.  (You may get 7-1 or so though)

3.  Forget about the Payson conspiracy theory and she still figures to improve off the Ashland, which was a bad race for both her and Rachel\'s Valentina.   They got beat by a slug.   That said, the reason I still like Carina is that she is trained by Mott.   Expect her to be better next race as Mott horses not cranked off layoffs the same way Pletcher horses are.   I believe carina mia is a very interesting filly in the Oaks, while Rachel\'s Valentina will be a toss for me.  She is going to be either favored or second choice and I don\'t think she improves sneer out the same way Carina will.  (Sounds like a contradiction since I do believe rachel ran a much better race than carina, but for me this race has clear trainer tendencies when it comes to the trainers of these two fillies and that plays to Carina.

Good luck

Rob

[FrankD.]

IMHO you are on the correct path,lots of valid points and the price after a disappointing effort will be right for sure.

One more wild card you did not mention,she is a filly (obviously) and a lot of really good ones have disappointed now and again for no apparent reason.

Oaks/Derby double possibilities are surely mouth watering!!!!

[BitPlayer]

According to the Kentucky Oaks website, she is currently 17th on the points list.  With Songbird out, she would move up to 16.  If memory serves, the field is limited to 14.  With Songbird out, there may not be many defections.

[ringato3]

Thanks for correcting me Bit.

I was under the wrong impression that the Oaks was like the BC Classic where a panel selects the top 14 and not that it was like the Derby, purely based on points.  

My bad - a bad \"assertion\"....

Rob

[miff]

Rachel\'s Valentina ran best ever in last vs Carina/Sophia...probable favorite?

[ringato3]

Mike,

I think she is the favorite.  Yes.

I guess we differ on that race.  Sophia got a perfect trip, albeit with ground loss on 2nd turn, and spit the bit, clearly not a 2-turn horse.  A horse with 70 beyer figures won the race.  Ugh.

Yes, Rachel went head to head with Carina and battled hard all stretch.  But when a can of shit wins, how good can the race be?

Some offshore outfits have Rachel\'s Valentina as low as 9-4 right now.  Ugh.  

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Think it\'s the classic slug benefitting from the contenders roughing it up,like Keen Ice sucking up past American Pharaoh and Frosted in the Travers.

Not sure of RV\'s figure but would be surprised if not a top, it was her best in track performance.She\'s smallish but a hard trier, did try Songbird too one time.

Odds you show, like 6-5 seems way short imo


Mike

[Wrongly]

Mike

There\'s going to be a ton of love from the general public for RV given her breeding!  I also thought she came over hard on Carina Mia and thought we would have seen an objection if CM had finished in the money.  Maybe I\'m giving Mott too much credit but I think she\'s going to be tough 2nd off the layoff in the Oaks.  T.

[TGJB]

Ring-- Easy on the name calling. You do it a lot.

[miff]

Wrong,

Carina was my very early choice to possibly take down Songbird.Guess she can move forward but think she was disappointing in her seasons debut, may have been short.