Early Stab at Derby M/L

[Fairmount1]

Here is the way too early balanced derby morning line based on the current points list.  I don\'t look at the books or offshore whatsoever when I do this.  Please feel free to tear it apart as I say every year as I\'m looking for feedback of where others believe the odds will be.  Or post the offshore odds if you are so inclined although I don\'t believe those represent a balanced morning line.  

A couple of notes.  The more formful derby results the last 3 years I think will drift the bottom horses back to closer to appropriate higher odds.  Last year, we started to see that happen even with only 18 horses.  Also, I disagree with the assessment of Mo Tom at 5th choice if he gets in as was posted.  Likely, Cupid would be first to defect from this list to get Mo Tom in but injuries could change all of that.  If Cupid doesn\'t go and Mo Tom slides in I see him as 8th or 9th choice right around that 20-1 mark and then adjustments needed to others to reflect the change.

As always, I am curious phil23\'s thoughts on this list.  I wavered on Creator and Mohaymen a few times.  Gave Mohaymen a slight edge in rank due to reputation but Winstar Horses seem to get bet in the Derby, See Carpe Diem last year.    


1.  Nyquist, 3.50-1
2.  Exaggerator, 4.80-1
3.  Brody\'s Cause, 6.10-1
4.  Destin, 6.60-1
5.  Mohaymen, 10.70-1
6.  Creator, 14.30-1
7.  Gun Runner, 17.10-1
8.  Mor Spirit, 19.80-1
9.  Suddenbreakingnews, 24.60-1
10. Danzig Candy, 26.70-1
11. My Man Sam, 30.20-1
12. Whitmore, 31.20-1
13. Outwork, 36.00-1
14. Shagaf, 40.60-1
15. Cupid, 42.40-1
16. Tom\'s Ready, 44.40-1
17. Majesto, 49.00-1
18. Lani, 57.80-1
19. Oscar Nominated, 65.60-1
20. Trojan Nation, 75.90-1

[ringato3]

Fairmount,

Looks very good to me.  Usually when people post these kinds of lines you can see multiple \"dumb\" numbers (for lack of a better/kinder word).  Don\'t see anything out of line with your numbers.

A few small thoughts:

I think Exaggerator will be a bit higher, maybe 6-1.  Brody\'s Cause and Destin closer to 8 or 9 to 1.  Mor Spirit and Gun Runner will be lower than what you posted I believe.  Gun Runner was 13-1 in the last derby pool and nothing but bad/slow races since then for the others.  (Yes, I know TGJB has him a turtle, but others disagree).  Mo Tom being a top 5 betting choice would be idiotic.  But who knows.  WAsn\'t Dollar Bill single digit derby odds?  (similar style to Mo Tom except I think Dollar Bill had the \"Pat Day bet down at Churchill angle\" going as well.

Good luck,

Rob

[ajkreider]

A pretty good stab.  

Usually when there\'s a tepid favorite, there\'s some compression of the odds - maybe 10 horses under 20-1 and 14 or so under 30-1.  Other than that, pretty close, though I think Lani goes off much shorter.

[Tavasco]

I think ajkreider is on target and expect the Lani price to be surprisingly short. Also hard for me to imagine Mor Spirit. that is Bob Baffert\'s, price inflating much. C/B single digit if he tosses in a patented fast workout.

Since the General Public doesn\'t know nor care so very much about Lani\'s performance numbers. I believe this horse could develop a U.S. cult like following in the weeks leading up to the Derby. Not to mention his fans in Tokyo whom I assume can wager from their homes.


Good start. Gonna go take an aspirin feel a fever coming on.

[Gerard]

Thank you for this.

Would you care to project where you think Adventist would be on the off chance he draws in? Maybe take Cupid and Trojan Nation out of the mix, and Fellowship takes a pass.

[Fairmount1]

Updated based a bit on the comments and the Cupid defection.  My last public attempt/adjustment until Derby week.  But certainly hoping to hear more comments about anticipated odds.  

I do not believe Exaggerator will reach 6-1 so I pushed the envelope as far as I could.  As for Lani, I moved him up the ladder a bit and had considered the Japanese angle but I\'m not certain if their money can reach the pools here or not.  As for a cult following, last year\'s UAE Derby winner and 2009 Desert Party both went off at 14-1.  But they were hyped based on their time, margins of victory, etc.  Lani earned an 83 Beyer apparently which word will spread about among the masses and I anticipate he won\'t get hammered below 25-1 in the pools and obviously I\'m thinking longer than that.  Lines of Battle was 32-1 in 2013 and Master of Hounds in 2011 was 16-1 after he ran second in UAE Derby.  Lani doesn\'t have the steam of the big names and seems more like Lines of Battle.  

As for Adventist, I wouldn\'t venture a guess unless I had the full field to line him up against so I won\'t even try at this point to give you a number due to who would have to defect, etc.    

I\'ve adjusted downward with several after inflating 2 through 4.  I am feeling pretty good that this in the ballpark.  The only issue that I could have substantially wrong that could really be a huge impact is Nyquist.  A lesson I\'ve learned since my first serious trips to the track is that undefeated horses are often overbet.  So is it possible that Nyquist goes off at 2.00-1?  I guess so but I really believe comparing him to previous favorites in the recent era that 7-2 is more accurate.  

Usually there are 9 to 10 horses under 20-1. Guessing the top 10 seems to be fairly predictable.  After that, it is sheer guessing.  One example would be that if Mike Repole bet on Outwork if he so desired could skew his odds immensely I would presume.  A few have remained the same and many were adjusted to reflect Mo Tom in the mix and the comments that seemed meritorious.  This is based on a 17.5 percent win takeout from HANA\'s website.  

1.  Nyquist, 3.50-1
2.  Exaggerator, 5.90-1
3.  Brody\'s Cause, 8.50-1
4.  Destin, 9.00-1
5.  Mohaymen, 10.70-1
6.  Creator, 12.30-1
7.  Gun Runner, 12.80-1
8.  Mor Spirit, 13.20-1
9.  Mo Tom, 19.00-1
10. Suddenbreakingnews, 23.30-1
11. Danzig Candy, 27.50-1
12. My Man Sam, 29.30-1
13. Whitmore, 31.20-1
14. Outwork, 34.70-1
15. Lani, 36.00-1
16. Shagaf, 39.00-1
17. Tom\'s Ready, 44.40-1
18. Majesto, 49.00-1
19. Oscar Nominated, 70.40-1
20. Trojan Nation, 82.30-1

[jbelfior]

Great job. I think you\'ll end up close on many of these. Hard to believe that Mor Spirit will be that high or higher than Creator and Brody.

Jerry\'s right. No one in here can go early with Danzing Candy.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGJB]

I think the Destin/Outwork relationship is wrong.

[FrankD.]

Even with a derby day pool the Repole posse can close that gap!

I think Destin will be closer to 15/1 & Outwork 20 something, most of if not all of 5-8 on a very good stab at the ML I can see shorter than Destin. Pletcher on the bench for 8 weeks is a tough sell to even the stupid money in the pool.

[Fairmount1]

Joe B.,

Thanks for the feedback to make me look closer.

Pertinent Notes on this:

2015--the top 6 choices won their last prep before Derby.  EDIT:  Top 7 choices actually (Mubtaahij, 7th choice).  
2014--the top 3 choices won their last prep before Derby. (4th choice was Candy Boy who had a monster bet to drop from beyond 15-1 to 9.40-1 at close)
2013--the top 4 choices won their last prep before Derby.
2012--5 of the top 6 choices won last prep before Derby (Union Rags was 3rd in Fla Derby and was second choice 5.10-1 in Derby)

In last four years, there have been 17 single digit odds horses in the Derby.  All but one of them won at least one of their two previous preps.  Can anyone name the one who didn\'t without peeking?  

Mor Spirit would be a bit of an anomaly in this regard as to why I think he will be double digits.  
________________________________________

Mor Spirit is 7-3-4-0 with losses to Airoforce at CD, then in his last two to Danzig Candy and Exaggerator.  DRF\'s ridiculous pace symbols (which mass public will see) notes a race flow that favored Closers and an extremely favorable race flow to closers in those two defeats.  Mor Spirit was 4th of 8, 5 1/2 back in SA Derby at 2nd call and was 5th of 6 at the second call in the San Felipe 6 lengths back.  Note that the extremely favorable race flow to closers was the San Felipe race Danzig won on the front end......need I say more about those symbols?    

His odds in his 6 starts going backwards were (as the favorite every time):  $1.40-1, $1.60-1, $.70, $.70, $2.40, $.50, $1.80 (highest odds were at Churchill but still favored).

He certainly could be higher up the ladder as far as rank I will grant you but single digits seem very unlikely.

[Fairmount1]

6 of the last 7 Derby\'s, a Pletcher horse has been single digit odds.

7 horses actually single digits in that span (Revolutionary and Verrazano) in 2013.

[jbelfior]

That\'s a good point. Few look past the top line including the DRF \"experts.\"

Assuming a fast track, Mor Spirit will be tough to deal with in that long CD stretch. The type that just keeps coming. Of all his races, I was most impressed by the Robert Lewis. Wore down a good 3yo at a distance and track that do not favor a horse of that running style (not the quickest turn of foot you\'ll ever see).
 Nice exacta use if he\'s double digits,especially on the assumption he comes back to a better number than the SF.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[TempletonPeck]

Wynn has 22/1 on Destin and 14/1 on Outwork, FWIW.