Derby Pace

[johnnym]

Basically the field is set and unless Cupid doesn\'t go we have 3 horses that like the lead or right up on it..
In Orb\'s Derby victory it only took one horse to start the stampede and the pace melt down that was
Palace Malace..

This year Danzing Candy could well be that horse,with Outwork and Cupid not far behind..
My 2 cents we very well could have a melt down..
Good luck
John

[mjellish]

It\'s ironic to me that everyone keeps saying there is no early pace in this year\'s KY Derby.  But I keep reading posts and articles about how the race shape for all the preps is too fast early.

Also, I keep hearing how the last 3/8ths of these races are slow.  Sure, the last 3/8ths may look slow for the race overall, but the winners of those races are coming from behind and running faster than that.  

I like to look at the last 1/8ths to get an idea of who may like to add another 1/8th on to that.

Creator got his last 1/8th in about 12.60 yesterday. SBN and Whitmore were just a tick or so slower after wide trips.  

Brody\'s Cause got his last 1/8th shading 13.  My Man Sam in about 12.60.  

Nyquist got his last 1/8th in about 12.8.  

Gun Runner shaded 13 and was drawing off from the field.  

Exaggerator got his last 1/8th in about 12.5.  

Outwork got his in about 14 on a tricky, greasy strip at AQU.  

Destin\'s was about 13.1, which I got by hand timing it off a replay so not sure that is 100%, but its close.

Those are just raw times without factoring in wind/track speed.

[ajkreider]

I agree, especially when the last 1/8 time is:

a) with weight
b) with a wide trip
c) results in a top placing
d) by extension, would result in a final raw time that could win a derby.  

Something at least sub 2:03.  The derby surface can usually be counted on to be pretty tight, which maybe shaves a bit off of these. But, a horse rolling along the rail to pick up 4th at 115 pounds doesn\'t do much for me.

My Man Sam, Ex, and SBN look especially good on this measure. They have to be put in the tri.

FWIW, from the replay I\'m pretty sure SBN finished slightly faster than Creator, despite what the chart says.

[big18741]

Exaggerator last 1/8th was 13.36 in the SA Derby.

A lot of the preps this year were fast early.

SA Derby in particular because of the presence of two stretch out sprinters in the field.Denman\'s Call on the rail and Iron Rob in the middle with Danzing Candy in between.Uncle Lino in search of points from the outside was also gonna go.

Perfect storm for a hot pace with Danzing Candy strategy to send because of his draw.

Ark Derby you had the two horses drawing outside of Cupid needing points and sending.

Bluegrass you had Laoban get off a little slow then rushed up to the lead because of the presence of Twizz another stretch out sprinter to his outside.

Nyquist was sent from the inside in the Florida Derby and was pressed by a couple of 90-1 shots.Pace wasn\'t really hot but they weren\'t gonna give up the front end to those horses.

So the preps weeded out most of the horses that were forcing/causing the early pace.Closers can hit the board in the Derby because of the distance but to win it they likely need a dream trip,or weak horses sitting in the first group of seven or eight,or a really hot pace.Maybe all of the above.

BTW Palace Malice ran off in his Derby getting first time blinkers.

[johnnym]

Valid point regarding Palace Malace and the blinkers.
Rest of the post, that is what makes wagering so much fun difference of opinions.
Good luck to you.

[mjellish]

You are right about Exaggerator. It was the maiden in the first race that day that came home last 1/8th in 12.5.  I had written that for comparison purposes and misread my notes.