Donn Handicap

[FrankD.]

Fairmount,

I guess you answered Boscar\'s question it\'s you that is in the place pools all around the country. As far as special counseling, you\'re not there yet maybe another Spa weekend in the back yard with Richiebee\'s guided tours will qualify you? If he mentions Schenectady call in sick.

Whatever works for you and is in your comfort zone that\'s turns a positive ROI cannot be argued with for sure. Those of us of a certain age cut our teeth that way and many old timers swore off exotics as voodoo for sure. When I started playing daily in the 70\'s there was only a triple on the last race, exacta\'s in the 3rd, 5th & 7th, Quinella\'s in the 2nd & 4th with early and late doubles in NY.
You had 9 races a day, no simulcast, no co mingling of pools on special days the Derby etc... NY had a separate wagering pool. You would bet out of town tracks with book makers and the Saturday NY feature had the bars packed to watch Frank Wright and Charlsie Canty with the only non triple crown televised racing.

Even the bookies resisted exotic wagering as they didn\'t want to get beat for a lot on a small bet. They capped exotic payouts at 50/1 and most even had $1,000 cap on a total payoff at first. That always made me scratch my head there were guys that would take $ 1,000 win bet at 10/1 but would only pay out up to $ 1,000 on an exotic bet.

I can remember my grandfather screaming at me calling me an idiot when I wasted a $10 horse on an exacta key as opposed to betting to win. He would think we were all nuts betting pick 3\'s, 4\'s, 5\'s, 6\'s, tri\'s & supers!!!!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[BitPlayer]

I saw a study quite a while ago that concluded betting longshots to place was disastrous.  I wonder, however, whether net pool pricing and larger spreads between WPS and exotic takeouts (~7% difference between WPS and exacta in California) have changed things.  My Dad bets to place a lot.  I think it works for him because he\'s betting primarily for entertainment and cashing is more important to him than ROI.

[Boscar Obarra]

Many who bet to place claim they do so ONLY on longshots.

 That leaves next to no one betting chalk to place, and yet, lots of money is right there in the pools.

  I mean if a horse is 6/5 , who is making a substantial place bet? A secret subset of the betting public?

[Mathcapper]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I saw a study quite a while ago that concluded
> betting longshots to place was disastrous.

Betting longshots to win is no bargain either, unless of course you're adept at identifying overlays.

The table below is from a massive study (covering almost 1.8 million horses from 1996-2004) done by Steve Klein in The Power of Early Speed in 2005 :

Odds | ROI
.10 - .49 | -13.0%
.50 - .99 | -17.5%
1.0 - 1.99 | -18.0%
2.0 - 2.99 | -18.5%
3.0 - 3.99 | -19.5%
4.0 - 4.99 | -19.0%
5.0 - 5.99 | -19.5%
6.0 - 6.99 | -18.0%
7.0 - 7.99 | -18.5%
8.0 - 8.99 | -16.0%
9.0 - 9.99 | -19.5%
10.0 - 10.99 | -17.5%
11.0 - 11.99 | -19.0%
12.0 - 12.99 | -18.5%
13.0 - 13.00 | -20.5%
14.0 - 14.99 | -20.5%
15.0 - 19.99 | -21.5%
20.0 - 29.99 | -24.0%
30.0 - 30.99 | -37.0%
40.0 - 49.99 | -37.0%
50.0 - 59.99 | -41.5%
60.0 - 99.99 | -57.5%
100+ | -71.0%

These results are in-line with the well-known favorite-longshot bias -- the public tends to underbet favorites and overbet longshots. I believe this effect has diminished over the past decade though as the computer guys and rebaters have siphoned much of the value out of underbet favorites.

I haven\'t seen any studies in reference to place bets, so it\'s hard to say how it compares with the win bet results shown above.

Rocky R.

[Mathcapper]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Many who bet to place claim they do so ONLY on
> longshots.
>
>  That leaves next to no one betting chalk to
> place, and yet, lots of money is right there in
> the pools.
>
>   I mean if a horse is 6/5 , who is making a
> substantial place bet? A secret subset of the
> betting public?


My guess is it\'s the computer guys and/or Dr. Z-type arb guys, along with the invisible hand of market efficiency.

[RICH]

interesting just did a quick 120 day data dump over 4k races

tote odds even - 2/1 win roi .83 place .87

10-12/1              win roi ,83 place .77


win roi basically the same as mathcappers above from years ago

[richiebee]

Thanks to RICH and Rocky for bringing some statistics aka facts to an exchange
which has consisted primarily of opinion and anecdote.

What someone should do is take all mutuel pools for a particular year and
determine how much is wagered win and place. Lets say the result might be that
nationwide 100 million dollars a year is bet win, and 30 million is bet to
place; then after seeing that 30 million (hypothetical) sum we can all agree
as reasonable men that \"nobody\" bets to place. OK.

Fun fact: Average place mutuel, Ky Derby, last 11 runnings: $19.00, skewed of
course by Giacomo\'s Derby, where Giac paid $45.80 to place and Closing Argument
paid $70 to place.

All of that being said, I must anecdotally add that probably less than 5% of my
lifetime wagers have been place or show. If that much. I would not be surprised
to find that in recent years a large portion (almost all) of my straight wagers
have been part of a scheme to \"hedge\" a multi race wager.

Speaking of \"hedging\", really enjoyed the four part ABC treatment of Bernie
Madoff. Amazing that Richard Dreyfuss has now played two of America\'s most
beloved men -- Dick Cheney (in Oliver Stone\'s \"W\") and Bernie Madoff.

[johnnym]

Good discussion I know on The betting guide line here their is no mention of place betting..
Personally I think I may be done with place betting. Part I am having issue with  is you handicap a race come up with 10-1 horse or greater and he places and you get nothing out of it..

[Boscar Obarra]

While on the subject, maybe someone can explain to me who is doing all this show betting on ridiculous horses.

 Today in the 3rd at AQU , some maiden , 1/2 shot, 160,000 to show.  

 Off the board, and the usual balloons on the 1/2/3 finishers

 Got to be some angle to it, there aren\'t enough people in the world with that kind of money to burn on nonsense bets, to make 1/20, or more probably to lose  money overall.

PS Seen dozens of posts over the years where they say they bet against the bridge jumpers, never once has anyone claimed to be that sucker.