Derby Week wrap up

[FrankD.]

Glen,

Hope all is well up in Minny. I know I\'m in good company when I make the same mistakes as you with Cali Chrome. Too many variables too short a price.

A TG novice who is not a particularly big bettor shows up at the Spa seminars sometimes bumped into me on Friday at the Tele in Albany and asked me who I liked.
I switched the I pad over to Saturday and the Derby and showed him Commanding Curves pattern. He simply responded WOW I love it when the pattern takes a left handed turn. Say no more and check the red board room if this is Greek to anyone.

Frank D.

[jbelfior]

Mike: Curve had no speed and no turn of foot. With that pace, I was shocked to see it was him running by the rest.
Golden Soul last year I could buy.... chaotic early pace combined with a strong outside closers bias.
This year\'s race results and time (sprinkle in the low Beyer) leads me to think that the Preakness winner did not run this weekend.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[vagrant]

Thomas on California Chrome:

California Chrome has the pattern of motion of an older horse. His running style really has not changed at all since his debut last April at Hollywood Park, but it has become much more powerful.

He breaks from the gate, seeks to get into the clear toward the front of the pack, platforms at a high cruising speed, then re-breaks. California Chrome is fairly heavily slanted toward the Individual Herd Dynamic, and he is very strong in this area as long as he is in control of his motion – running in the relative clear.

California Chrome is a horse at the apex of his development. He has learned his game and honed his tactics. He is much farther down the road in the development of his pattern of motion than most three-year-olds at this time of year. ...

California Chrome is not a highly efficient horse when his forward motion is being impeded. If traffic slows him down by 5 lengths early, he won't necessarily get those 5 lengths back later. In the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Golden State Juvenile, where he finished sixth, California Chrome was unable to move horses with presence. He didn't have the "part the seas" move that we have seen from some other Derby winners (Animal Kingdom, for example). He was just another frustrated driver caught in traffic. ...

The blinkers haven't helped him learn how to deal with traffic, but they have sharpened his forward drive. They have made him better at getting the trip he wants – near the front in the clear – and imposing his will on a race. ...

California Chrome had an air of assurance in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby. He walked proudly, independent of his pony. Interaction with the pony serves as stress relief. A lot of horses suck right up next to the pony, sometimes as an act of agitation, other times as a safety blanket. California Chrome wasn't feeling any stress that day. He likes to run, and as a high-level horse, he is not herd dependent. California Chrome enters the Derby an extremely confident horse.

Time in motion up to nine furlongs did not wear California Chrome down. He has the emotional conformation to handle the Derby distance, but the ride could be very important. This is a luxury sports car that needs proper steering.

California Chrome appears to be the dominant Individual Herd Dynamic, on-the-pace horse in this field. If he gets his preferred trip, he is going to be a tough opponent. The amount of energy he expends attaining position and defeating the other speed horses will determine his vulnerability in the late stages.

If he gets held up early, we will find out if he has grown in the group dynamic. He hasn't been put in that scenario since last fall, and he didn't handle it well then.

[Edgorman]

Commanding Curve had never bounced.  Betting TG numbers to continue to move forward has always been a good angle. Better than playing alliterative alphabet letters.

[TGJB]

Not this time.

[TreadHead]

Joe, that\'s just complete rubbish.  Horses with \"no turn of foot\" dont finish the last part of a 5F workout in 22.4.  It\'s a real shame we didn\'t get to see his stretch run unleashed without a headwind, it would have been interesting.

[jbelfior]

Yep, his turn of foot is all over his pp\'s. Six months from now he\'s still eligible for nw-1.

Good Luck,
Joe B