One snake to jump for Orb

[TGJB]

Jim-- take what you get paid per hour, multiply it by the number of hours you will be travelling in traffic to and from Belmont that day, and tell me whether you\'ll still be ahead.

[covelj70]

JB,

you can\'t put a price on the adreneline rush you get when the horse is the top of the stretch with a triple crown on the line

didn\'t you read the article from Derby week that called me \"an adreneline junkie?\"  

that was pretty much spot on except it might have been better if the word \"legal\" adremeline junkie was added in there but what are you gonna do?

I wake up in the middle of the night sometimes thinking about Durkin\'s line in the Smarty Belmont

\"And Smarty Jones is a quarter mile from racing immortality\" (or something like that)

I was there live for that and I will never forget it.  I had goosebumps then and I have goosebumps now just thinking about it. I can only imagine being there live if one actually wins it!

[vp612]

Mjellish.sorry but I am cold and calculating, I don\'t look at how he ran, come from behind or on the lead.I look at the number and how it fits into his  pattern.I am not a vet and I don\'t look at easily,handily or whatever.His line is what it is and I have said it several times,we shall see what happens.

[vp612]

I go every year but I am going to be away and I come back on belmont day .It is a great day in the garden room.

[mlnolan00]

I like Mylute for the Preakness off of the 3/4 he ran in the Derby (second fastest race behind Orb) and receiving the \"!\" designation as well.  Wynn has him at ~11/1 currently and that works for me.

[TGJB]

Listen to Durkin\'s call of the 98 Belmont some time. Forget me being involved, probably the greatest call of all time.

They say a picture\'s worth a thousand words...

[Niall]

Went to HS on one side of the track, my folks house was on the other. Park in FP and take a cab or hoof it through the west end ... You can thank me by buying me a cup of suds at the Travers Bar !!! Oh snot, they took it down ... Ok Jim Dandy ... MF @#!% They ruined that one too ...

[richiebee]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> \"And Smarty Jones is a quarter mile from racing
> immortality\" (or something like that)
>
> I was there live for that and I will never forget
> it.  I had goosebumps then and I have goosebumps
> now just thinking about it. I can only imagine
> being there live if one actually wins it!

...and I got goosebumps in the now razed New Dorp (Staten Island) OTB branch
when I saw Prado, well behind Smarty, start to scrub on Birdstone...

[Silver Charm]

Ritchie only you could take pleasure in a finish like this. Was Allday working for Stronach by then or was it Pat Byrne with Countess Diana and Favorite Trick....sheeeesh!

1997 Belmont Stakes

[FrankD.]

Jim,

Read my mind I was on stub last week thinking the very same although I did not hit the purcahse button. I\'ve been to many Belmont\'s including the last Triple Crown as a naive 20 yr old.

My friend and race track companion is a big event person who begged me to take her last year and has been in a steady lobby for this years version. For the very reasons JB states below I could not pull the trigger and drag myself through that mess. After all I\'m almost Richiebe\'s age and getting as grumpy as Miff, whom I miss !!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[richiebee]

FrankD. Wrote:
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> Jim,
>
> Read my mind I was on stub last week thinking the
> very same although I did not hit the purcahse
> button. I\'ve been to many Belmont\'s including the
> last Triple Crown as a naive 20 yr old.

Uncle Frank:

That was probably you who was blocking my view in 78. Strange that I\'ve lived in
NY for more than 1/2 my life but been to more Derbies than Belmonts. The 78
Belmont was the only one I attended that I got right; I didn\'t have a sniff of
longshots Avatar (Shoemaker, 1975) or Colonial Affair (Krone, 1993).

The way I look at it I can go to Belmont on any day other than Belmont Day (or BC
if it ever returns) and basically have the place to myself; very difficult to go
when there might be 100k plus, with long waits for all conveniences such as
food/drink, restrooms and mutuels.

As Yogi said, no one goes there anymore, its too crowded.

Covel says the Durkin/Smarty call gives him goosebumps. With the help of
Wikipedia, I leave you with the following, from Chic Anderson:

  \"It\'s still Affirmed as they come to the quarter pole. He\'s holding on to a head
lead. Alydar is outside of him and challenging that lead. The two are heads apart
and Alydar\'s got a lead! Alydar put a head in front in the middle of the stretch!
Its Alydar and Affirmed battling back along the inside! WE\'LL TEST THESE TWO TO
THE WIRE! Affirmed under a left hand whip! Alydar on the outside driving! Affirmed
and Alydar heads apart. Affirmed\'s got a nose in front as they come to the wire!\"

Two great champions stirrup to stirrup, or as Dan Jenkins once said, \"So close
they could fart in the same Coke bottle\"

What makes this game great is that finishes like that happen a few times a day at
racetracks all over the world, and if you have some skin in the game, it doesn\'t
matter if the horses involved are champion grade or what the erstwhile Miff liked
to call \"slow rats\".

[catcapper]

If I may be so bold as to reply. I want to acknowledge your early post regarding Orb as the real deal. I believe Orb is the real deal for all of the reasons so many have already pointed out.  If he is a true champion, the post should stop him, but given the draw, I think it\'s going to be a bit more of a jockeys\'  race now. We have all seen a worthy horse get boxed in and steered around as they keep the pace down, allowing a lesser horse to  sprint away at an opportune moment. The race, as any race, could be won or lost in the first sixteenth. IMHO, victory in the Preakness can get away from you really quick. (Animal Kingdom). I don't have stats on this, but far from moving too soon, I always fear the worthy will move too late in the Preakness. It has been said many times, the finish line comes up quick in this race. Or getting so far back there is just too much left to do.  Rosario\'s hot golden timing and touch has got to be spot on for this one. So tomorrow I'm going to bet Orb...and probably whatever horse Mike Smith is on underneath. We all just want a clean fair race.  As for IMLD, to the extent of my ability to read the figs, I agree his numbers look impressive. But I am not impressed with how he achieved them. Specifically I mean, who did he beat? Shanghai Bobby, who everyone pretty much agrees is an outstanding sprinter/miler perhaps at best, not a classic horse. Also, I get get the gist reading here, that horses whose success has been limited to Fla., aren't too highly regarded. He's been spanked a few times by rivals in here. And something in my gut just doesn't ring true about him. I see questions marks all over. I don't expect him to be in the picture by the sixteenth pole, if he doesn't wilt sooner.

Also, I realize that the thousands and thousands of racing fans looking for a $2 keepsake will skew the odds tomorrow. But this is where I look forward to the Belmont. While everyone gets set to bail on him in the Belmont the second he crosses the finish line first at Pimlico, I am gonna tie on tighter than ever. Horizontals, verticals, diagonals, I will be all over him from top to bottom and all around, too, because at that point, that's the last place I will be looking for him to bounce. I have no numbers to base that on. It is not emotional investment  speaking. That is my gut sense, all things considered.  (I guess I'm hanging out flapping in the wind now.)  And if I am right, major serious kudos to the connections, and the horse himself, and I will have a $2 keepsake from Pimlico.

I apologize for not sticking strictly to the subject of figs and fig making. On a Wednesay, this would be a race for me to walk away from, that much I understand. From here on out, I will try to stick more strictly to the subject of figs. Thanks for your patience. This is a busy time for \'cappers everywhere, I don\'t expect a reply. I just hope my thoughts haven\'t wasted your time.

[MonmouthGuy]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> With NI out, I don\'t see any of the KD returnees
> as viable options.  Out of all of them, I think
> Oxbow is the most likely to run well as he was the
> only horse in the lead pack besides NI to run on
> after the speed collapsed last weekend.  Even at
> that, the best I could see him doing is moving
> forward from his last to a 3. Race looks like a
> pass.

Probably should have placed a saver win bet on him anyway! I passed.

[Rick B.]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Probably should have placed a saver win bet on him
> anyway! I passed.

My long-gone gambling mentor once intoned, \"If
you don\'t occasionally pass on a winner, you are
probably playing too many races.\"

If nothing else, it confirms that your handicapping
is pretty sharp at the moment.