Will Buddy Gill Bounce??

[TGJB]

Tell you what-- there is no way they would ever post them, but since you know the guys in the Rag office see if you can get them to show you the sheets for the horses that ran in that turf sprint that BG won. Hint-- he didn\'t win by 10. See how the numbers look on the sheets for all the horses in that race.

Second hint-- you don\'t make figures so this is something you might not get, but it is some amazing coincidence that BG exactly paired the turf number I gave him in his next start-- and that dirt number is confirmed by 1) BG,A, and DD, all of whom came out of different races, all running at or very close to an exact pairup of a top run in their previous race, which is exactly what you want to see as a figure maker, especially looking at spring 3yos, and 2) in your terms, by Ragozin doing that race (the San Felipe) exactly the same as I did, once you make the correction for their numbers running 3 points slower.

[Silver Charm]

Marc,

I just don\'t get it when it comes to the logic of Ragazin/Sheet users, certainly those that are as smart as yourself. You did an analysis of Empire Maker the other day and posted it the Sheets Board that was outstanding. I printed a copy and saved.

But then you follow up with


\"No, not in my book. We know how well Mullins is doing, and why would we make so much out of a turf sprint, when looking at this horse\'s line? Turf sprinting is such a quirky little part of the game, and with no other turf sprints on Buddy\'s resume, it\'s literally the single number on all of the Ragozin Santa Anita Derby PPs that means the least to me.\"


We heard some of this same logic in the Chilukki argument(we can start that one over again if everyone would like). That this is a figure or race on Ragozin a handicapper should ignore or place limited value upon. Do they put this type of thing in their introductory kit. \"Races to ignore or place little value in.\"

The same thing was said about Laurel 2/22. \"Ignore those races, don\'t place any value on the numbers they were given when making handicapping decisions\".

Reading lines on sheets can be difficult enough, now Friedman is asking his players to guess which numbers are totally meaningless, partially meaningless or meaningful.

One final note to the Ragozin customers--Bet with confidence this weekend.

[Marc At]

\"but since you know the guys in the Rag office\"

Not true.

 \"See how the numbers look on the sheets for all the horses in that race.\"

I\'m sure they all ran huge new tops. Whenever the Ragozin operation sees a race in which all of the horses run huge new tops, it never stops to review the race, and just hopes no one notices that they screwed it up so badly-- they\'re that sloppy in their work.

\"but it is some amazing coincidence that BG exactly paired the turf number I gave him in his next start-- and that dirt number is confirmed by 1) BG,A, and DD, all of whom came out of different races, all running at or very close to an exact pairup of a top run in their previous race, which is exactly what you want to see as a figure maker, especially looking at spring 3yos,\"

Classic Brown dogma. Others think Spring 3-yr-olds notoriously develop at rapid rates. Why would they *all* pair up from their previous race? Buddy Gil: From a turf sprint to a dirt route, he paired up the number. Wow, that\'s an unusually versatile colt, that Buddy Gil.

[Marc At]

Races run on off-tracks are the most likely races to have aberrent results, on a figure-making front.

I handicap with figures quite cautiously on this front, whether it was when I was using figures that weren\'t Sheets figures, or to this very day.

If you think there\'s something to be proved by the most aberrant situations, yes, we will see you at the windows.

[TGJB]

Marc,

One of the problems with dealing with your line-by-lines (and to a much lesser degree those of your dearly departed buddy) is that you think a comment is a response, and it takes a lot of time dealing with the minutiae and quantity of your posts, time I don\'t have. So rather than do a point by point, I\'ll just say 1) you CAN at least look at those horses out of the grass race when they come back, and see how the figures Ragozin gave them look on their sheets, and 2) get your buddy, who has made figures, to explain to you how figures are made. It is not a question of whether 3yo\'s go forward in the spring-- do you think Ragozin does a race and says \"this looks right, they all went forward 3 points\", or that he is happier when lots of horses pair up? There WERE horses who ran significant new tops in the San Felipe-- and one reason I know that is because of the others, the ones that paired up, and 3) if you go to the archives and look at my response to Jason Litt on 6/12/02 you\'ll get a fuller explanation of what is wrong with your point about \"dogma\" regarding pairups, and how those pairups confirm not only the pairup figure but the first half of the pair.

[Michael D.]

how anybody can connect a six and a half furlong turf race and a mile and a sixteenth dirt race, and somehow make a \"pattern\" out of the two is a giant mystery to me. seriously, is this what people refer to when they talk about \"sheet patterns\"? is there anybody out there who really thinks that BG\'s last two races, taken together as a \"pattern\", will give us any indication of how the horse will run tomorrow?

[HP]

Yes I\'ll take a stab at it. I think BGill\'s last two races (2\'s) equal a bounce. I think he\'ll run poorly in the SA Derby. Looks like two big races in a row and I\'ll think he\'ll feel it Saturday. Looks like a sheet pattern. I\'ll play against at a short price. HP

[Frank]

TGJB,

Your reference to Marc\'s buddy, also my buddy, as \"dearly departed\" is offensive. Try and show a little respect.

Frank

[Bystander]

Have watched all the disputes going on between both boards over the last 5 years (or however long it has been).  Interesting. Handicapped this race using both Ragozin and Thorograph.  Although there are lots of differences on individual horses both in terms of relative number strength and pattern, my conclusion on the race ends up being the same regardless of which product I look at.  

The horse with the strongest number already run looks too good.  Although a lot of people seem to think he is spent, his pattern on both sheet products is actually excellent.  If you were to add 5 points to all of his numbers on either set of sheets, people would be slobbering over this horse as a pattern play -- in normal situations, I believe most rational handicappers would forgive the last number (not that is sucks on its own right).  I do not know where he will be Kentucky Derby Day, but I am sure he will run the best number on both products on April 5....would be afraid a bad trip will allow a slower horse to win but the jockey change does give me some comfort.

Don\'t know how much value will end up being there when all is said and done, but, if the price is right, this could be a solid punch play.

Good Luck to all!

[TGJB]

Frank,

I have been trying not to open a can of worms, but let\'s just say I am privy to e-mails to which you are not (both from and to, where I gave a whole bunch of warnings and requests to knock it off, you should ask to see them), and that you may not have read some posts that I deleted as soon as I saw them, or recognize some posts on the other board that were put up in other names. I was called a lot worse than dearly departed, repeatedly, and believe me, I\'m the one taking the high road-- if I wanted to I could handle this the way Friedman does, calling names and deleting responses.