KING OF THE ROXY...

[gowand]

Miff
We all know(as you stated before the derby) that pletcher seems to come up empty on the first Saturday in May.(and the last saturday in October or whereabouts)  The question is why. I guess I am an \"idiot\" in your eyes if I think this is going a bit beyond coincidence.  Maybe there is nothing going on here but I don\'t think you can say someone is an idiot because they ask the question.  I think it would be naive to think that there is no illegal drug use in racing.  For years \"idiots\" like myself knew it was going on in professional sports and due mostly to financial concerns the respective sports ignored this.  If you are willing to admit it goes on in racing then why would you not look at TAP\'s record with suspicion.

[miff]

Gowand,

We are on very different pages. TAP\'s record is the reason why I think he\'s NOT using and if he is, it ain\'t working. Don\'t know how long you are playing the racing game but check out the Oscar like move ups of today and NONE of them are in TAPs runners lines.And yes, I believe that anyone who thinks that the pre derby EPO test is the reason why TAP\'s runners bombed is clueless about the game.From memory TAP had about 15 compettive horses run on Fri and Sat, he won two races. How come he did not win more, since he\'s this prolific drug trainer the conspiracy idiots say he is.

TAP has app 200 horses of very good overall quality. Do you think he should win one out of four? If not, why?. And to all, again, what are the names of the Oscar like move up runners of TAP. Left Bank was mentioned,freaky fast horse, died from illegal drugs according to the conspiracy idiots but yet LLoyds paid the insurance, makes sense.

Take a look at runners trained by, Dutrow, Levine,Amoss,K Ziadie,Mullins,Autrey,Lake to name a few.Compare the calibre of their stock to TAP\'s and the results achieved.I\'m aware they are claiming outfits tapping joints et al, but take a look and post. I already have most of the TG data.

The conspiracy idiots have been asked several times now, still no answer. Chuck, cat got your tongue or did they take you back to the asylum?


Mike

[marcus]

King Of The Roxy is a better horse imo than just one to play spoiler with and with his numbers , should probably get more time off - maybe even just track the horse for MTH or Sar /  BC / Nad @ 4 yo / Retirement - although i don\'t know if he had an equipment change    ...

 Also  fwiw ,  imo - KOTR , with his somewhat unhealthy pattern and all , and the fillie  R2R - who looked in bad shape to me after leaving the Oaks winners circle , have good chances to break-up a TC if are % 110 right  ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Sure,

Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby;
Cowtown Cat in the Illinois Derby;
Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby\'
Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby;
King of the Roxy in the Hutchenson and Santa Anita Derby.

That group just for starters.

What I\'d like to see now is a ThoroStats probability for all 5 of Pletchers horses going \"OFF\". Fastest finisher had to be in the 4 range no?  What are the probabilities of 5 Pletcher horses going OFF in the same Grade I race?

I was factoring Pletchers drug moves pre Derby and stated even before the drug test that I thought he\'d get out trained. Once the test was revealed I got that spiritual feeling and bet with conviction that he would miss the board.

Was it mere luck? What is the probability?

No grassy knoll gunman here
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lance,
>
> The conspiracy idiots are alive and well. Pletcher
> only drugged Rags to Riches, thats why she won,the
> rest of them he could not drug, thats why they
> lost.
>
> Incidentally, why don\'t you or anyone else list
> the names of the horses that re-broke and
> won,running move up type TG figs, I missed those
> performances.
>
> Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
>
> The idiot brigade is suggesting that the pre race
> test was known and the horses weren\'t
> drugged,BRILLIANT.Small problem the idiot brigade
> forgot that(Jerry noted) epo is not race day and
> is spoon fed overtime so when the test came TAP
> should have had 5 positives for all the stuff in
> their system pre-test day.
>
>
> Mike

Miffed, I\'ll tell you why I have credibility upon this issue. Pletchers horses did not only miss the board. I tossed them from it and cashed without them.

Now, regarding EPO, my last knowledge upon it was that they cannot even detect it. They can detect an antibody the animal produces once its admiminstered. That was a year ago, so the tests may be more precise now. This much I do know: A body will return to equilibrium and thus any use of EPO where red blood cells are artificially increased would have to be maintained. Its in the maintenance that such a test would be effective. The key to this inquiry is \"When did the stables know\" To this point no one has answered that question and I\'d be very cautious in asserting the \"drugs off\" people are crazy this time too. The ancillary issue regarding the test providing a chilling effect upon the trainers in regard to using other performance enhancers was stated by TGJB.

All the trainers I knew are gone now. I really don\'t have someone inside to ask the pertinent questions. I\'d think someone here would have that opportunity. But that question is in regard to when did the Derby Entry Stables know. It is not related to Pletcher being a performance enhancing drug abuser. He and his vet are a poverty upon this game and their day of reckoning may be upon them.

Choose this day whom ye shall serve

[miff]

Chuck said these performances of TAP\'s runners were drug like move ups:


Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby;
Cowtown Cat in the Illinois Derby;
Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby\'
Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby;
King of the Roxy in the Hutchenson and Santa Anita Derby.


Chuck,

You need to take your meds. I can\'t debate with someone who knows nothing about a drug induced performance from a visual or performance fig perspective.The examples you have cited confirm your overall lack of knowledge of the subject being discussed.


Mike

[Barry Irwin]

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It sounds to me like Barry uses the TG figures,
> but doesn\'t limit his thinking about his horses to
> the numbers alone. If I am correct, I think he
> looks at every horse as an indvidual and every
> figure in light of how it was earned. So I guess
> the decision about KOTR will be based on what KOTR
> is telling him and not what Keyed Entry\'s pattern
> looked like last year.


Thank God somebody gets it. And thank you fkach.

I just got back from South Africa, so this is my first chance to see this thread.

Jerry, numbers are valuable and part of the puzzle, but only part.

I humbly submit to you that the use of numbers had a detrimental impact on the way some horses were trained up to the Derby and the results speak for themselves.

People that rely n numbers solely, whether for the placement of their horses or for gambling, cannot consistently win, because they do not supply all of the answers.

That was my point.

[high roller]

barry don\'t become a steve irwin, your horse is a 7f to a mile horse, he ran in a garbage race at santa and you got lucky, i\'m sure its good publicity for your syndicate but do what\'s right for the horse.

that horse is 3/5 to be off the board.

[Barry Irwin]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I see now why Barry Nomad Irwing excoriated you.
> Team Valor made the plunge upon that questionable
> specimen of a horse. He thinks he may better the
> last place Derby finish of Keyed Entry. The only
> good horse this outfit ever bought was Captain
> Bodgit.
>
> Later, They get credit for Prized too, but they
> screwed up changing trainers on him.
>
> You can\'t live in the past. Its amazing that they
> have a business going. Maybe they dont. Maybe
> thats the root of the ridiculous response.
>
> Once again, great post John, I think you said
> volumes about the Pletcher methodology. What Team
> Valor needs is thirdly a better horse, secondly, a
> better trainer and most importantly better
> decision making as to the two preceding issues.
>
> He\'s a candidate for last in the Derby, last 1/4
> of the field in the Preakness.
> CHICKENS!
>
> Barry, you need someone to review pedigree and
> conformation. Badly. I can help. Thats a statement
> of fact. It\'s not easy and I\'m not cheap. I\'ll
> even prove it. You provide me with the documents
> upon your top ten prospective Derby intended
> purchases next year and I\'ll pick the one that
> produces the most...gratis.  After that, when you
> want my imput again, you\'ll pay dearly for it.
>
> John is right. Sell that hay burner.
>
> CtC
>
> JohnTChance Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > On this particular forum, opinions stem from
> > numbers and number analysis. It seems that,
> though
> > \"a lot of variables go into this game,\" numbers
> > ARE the overwhelming part of the puzzle these
> > days, changing the way horses are perceived,
> and
> > even handled. When HARD SPUN ran that \"clunker\"
> in
> > his loss at Oaklawn, it was \"numbers\" that
> > redefined the perception of his performance.
> > Thoughts that the colt may not have handled the
> > Oaklawn surface, gave way to trainer Larry
> Jones
> > defended his colt by referring reporters to the
> > good sheet figure he ran. On the ThoroGraphs,
> HARD
> > SPUN had run another 2. That is, he ran well,
> not
> > poorly. And recently, Todd Pletcher changed the
> > schedule of his Derby-bound colts, giving one
> more
> > time. Wasn\'t that decision based, not so much
> upon
> > the horse\'s weight, blood count or breeding,
> but
> > as a sheets-influenced decision? There\'s
> tangible
> > sheets evidence that Todd\'s horses do well off
> > layoffs.
> >
> > The young Pletchers that run these huge orgasms
> > early on in their 3-yr. old year at GP - I\'m
> > thinking of those from TEXAS GLITTER through to
> > LIMEHOUSE, VALUE PLUS, KEYED ENTRY and now KING
> OF
> > THE ROXY. When you run a -1 as an early 3 yr.
> old,
> > what do you expect next out, and thereafter? Do
> > you project they\'ll IMPROVE??? That they\'ll run
> a
> > -3 soon? A -4 on dem bones? The point is that
> > improvement has not been the norm, and whoever
> > manages a fast colt\'s future is viced in by
> that
> > magnificent early effort.
> >
> > I\'m not surprised an uncharitable expression
> about
> > pharmacology as it relates to performance is
> > ridiculed. How \"absurdly naive!,\" eh? Mindful
> of
> > your comments on this forum about Dr. Harthill
> a
> > while back - something to the effect that \"he\'s
> > the best, and it\'s to my advantage to use him\" -
> I
> > can twist the argument and throw it right back
> at
> > you to meet you at mid-field. So you think that
> > Pletcher\'s horses aren\'t profoundly effected by
> > steroids and injections? They run these -1
> > ThoroGraphs just on their own natural God-given
> > development? Hay, oats and water only? Yeah.
> > Right. God Bless America. You\'re wrong.
> >
> > JTC


Chuckles, first of all, how dare you use a handle from my favorite play \"A Thousand Clowns.\"

Secondly, nowhere in the history of the Turf do we read of Chuckles the Clown\'s impact in the major races on the calendar.

As for Prized, he was trained by Neil Drysdale the entire time I had anything to do with him. When he won the Breeders Cup Turf in the first grass race of his life, I won enough betting with bookies in England to buy a house.

I humbly submit to you that whatever you think you may have accomplished, that every single year we at Team Valor do more.

This year we have already had 6 stakes winners, 5 of which were bought by me as yearlings, including Fairbanks, who is one of the few high-priced yearlings in recent years to perform well on the track. His 115 Beyer (did I actually say BEYER! What an idiot I am!!!) is the best over a route of ground by any horse in the country this year.

Good luck with your fantasy stable, pal.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Miffed,

Last time we were here you had to elaborate upon your position. Are we really at a point now that theres a disagreement over what a \"rebreak\" is?

The videos of those preps are available at RaceReplays.com, Kentuckyderby.com and bloodhorse.com I\'d recommend close scrutiny of them in regard to the post race number assigned by TGraph.

Once again, I\'d ask the statistical probability of all 5 of Pletchers horses Off to xing on the first Saturday in May.

I\'d say I\'m arguing data and you are arguing angry.

lol

CtC

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck said these performances of TAP\'s runners
> were drug like move ups:
>
>
> Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby;
> Cowtown Cat in the Illinois Derby;
> Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby\'
> Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth and Florida
> Derby;
> King of the Roxy in the Hutchenson and Santa Anita
> Derby.
>
>
> Chuck,
>
> You need to take your meds. I can\'t debate with
> someone who knows nothing about a drug induced
> performance from a visual or performance fig
> perspective.The examples you have cited confirm
> your overall lack of knowledge of the subject
> being discussed.
>
>
> Mike

[high roller]

> I humbly submit to you that whatever you think you
> may have accomplished, that every single year we
> at Team Valor do more.
>
> This year we have already had 6 stakes winners, 5
> of which were bought by me as yearlings, including
> Fairbanks, who is one of the few high-priced
> yearlings in recent years to perform well on the
> track. His 115 Beyer (did I actually say BEYER!
> What an idiot I am!!!) is the best over a route of
> ground by any horse in the country this year.
>
> Good luck with your fantasy stable, pal.

i\'ll bet my life that no partner at team valor makes money this year, all these cheesy syndicates are, are a vechicle for people to say they own a horse, yadda , yadda, yadda, its the barry irwin\'s of the world that are smart & shrewd. after they take their expenses off the top nothing is let for the bagholders. you guys are smart like dogwood you came up with a great idea to rein in suckers, but please don\'t pretend that you are doing anyone a favor.

[miff]

Chuck,

Ye of little knowledge. What you call a rebreak in most cases is nothing more than a lead change which allows a horse to kick in.Sometimes a horse will \"come again\" in a show of heart/gameness.The conspiracy theorist believe that the sudden burst is from epo or other stuff,I guess.Horse that are \"juiced up\" usually just run away from the pack, imo.


Mike

[fkach]

Since when do people buy horses for profit?  

I\'ve been saying for a long time that the economics of racing are preposterous.

IMHO, until owners start thinking like businessmen and start insisting on an adequate risk adjusted return on invested capital for horse ownership, the growth of the sport is going to be hurt by the fact that almost everyone is losing money. How can you grow if everyone is going broke?  

That doesn\'t even begin to address the fact that owners are often forced to make decisions about horses that are not in the best interest of the sport because of the crazy economics.

I am not holding out much hope for that though because people buy lots of things like horses that give them intangible pleasures even though they are bad investments.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Miff, I don\'t believe in surges with or without injections. Most times it involves energy dissipation regardless of what its called. The issue is energy which doesnt dissipate as quickly as it should.

I\'ve looked at Jerry\'s numbers and will concede that Pletcher did not \"OFF\" by as much as I at first thought. I\'m gonna add a point to his numbers and if you do so you have one Pletcher topping, One Pletcher pairing, One Pletcher Offing and 2 pletchers X\'ing. I think thats probably a pretty reasonable compromise in the circumstances.

The compromise in no way acquiesces that Pletcher does not drug or was not forced off drugs in the Derby.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Ye of little knowledge. What you call a rebreak in
> most cases is nothing more than a lead change
> which allows a horse to kick in.Sometimes a horse
> will \"come again\" in a show of heart/gameness.The
> conspiracy theorist believe that the sudden burst
> is from epo or other stuff,I guess.Horse that are
> \"juiced up\" usually just run away from the pack,
> imo.
>
>
> Mike