Everyone just waking up and smelling the Quay to the roses?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Hey Ctc,
> >
> > After Dominicano\'s Bullet Work today at CD, can
> I
> > get some of the 125-1 action you are proposing?
> >
> > NC Tony
>
> A fast horse should be able to shade a minute
> flat. I told you that he had some semblance of
> speed. He\'s an El Corredor after all. Hes Super
> Testacular!!! But, damn he left his Derby on the
> training track. I\'m sorry Tony, tough break. Post
> work odds reassessment. Dominican 150-1.

Does that make the 1:01:+ workout for Tueflesberg a tad slow, indicating a slow horse? Want to book my bet?

The problem with saying anything on this board is simple fundemental value betting as the opportunity arises. To say I am betting so and so right now without having live odds is rediculous tobe quite honest. Sure you have an opinion going in, I thought Barbaro was the best horse last year, but thought the betting public would make him 5/2 or 3-1 range. Never thinking 6-1 was possible (my assessment). Also always knew that Keenland runners who threw clunkers on the old surface had run well in the derby (Invisible Ink, Closing Argument, Lion Heart,Proud Citizen). Anyway, it\'s all about being adaptable and finding value.

You think Tberg is value, as you and I tought Sin Min might be value last year, but at 9.7-1 Sin Min was an underlay, that day as compared to Barbaro that day.So even though I don\'t owe you a damn explanation about anything I thought I might teach you a little about value handicapping since you apparently are hell bent in trying to make me look bad.

Handicapping is about adapting and finding value that day.

Right now I would say Domincan might be good value, but they still have not drawn PP\'s and set ML odds. But he has proven he can run on Dirt and not just a poly horse, and he looked awsome according to my clocker at CD. Do you have one btw? At those odds you are proposing, I\'m willing to put some money up are you?

NC Tony


>
> NoCarolinaTony wrote:
>
> >Kinda Like I did last year on Barbaro @ 6-1. But
> I liked BG Cat to finish in the >$ too at those
> odds.
>
> >NC Tony
>
> NoCarolinaTony posted:
>
> http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,28258,
> 28259#msg-28259
>
> http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,28450,
> 28570#msg-28570
>
> I lost to Barbaro twice, but kicked his butt too.

[SoCalMan2]

I think Dominican is pretty interesting.  As a 2 year old, he ran a new top every time he ran on dirt and he only bounced once (that bounce was the only time he ran on poly).  As a three year old, he has only run on poly.  He has not run a new top yet, just paired up his 2 yo dirt top.  It seems to me that the case can easily be made that Dominican prefers dirt to poly (the horse runs a new top every time he runs on dirt and has never run a new top on poly).  If that is the case, then perhaps his two three year old efforts on Poly should be looked at is if they were a few ticks faster since they were on a less preferred surface. If that is the case, he is actually quite competitive. I take the fact that CtC views the correct odds on the Bluegrass winner as 150-1 as a positive sign.  This is the same guy who thought Scat Daddy was only playable in Pool 1 at 300-1.

[magicnight]

So Cal;

Not only does Dominican clearly prefer dirt to poly, based on my recollection of his sheet (it\'s at home, I\'m at work), he also appears to LOVE CD (although that\'s debatable as the sheet may just indicate that he was getting much faster late in his 2yo season).

What makes him really interesting (besides all that you say) is that his wins are on poly while his better (2yo) figs are on dirt/CD. The wins make him seem like the \"rug warrior\" in the public\'s eye, but the sheet says the opposite.

In many cases you would expect the BG winner to get a lot of action at the windows. But, with the dirt/poly confusion, and, the slow-paced BG ... he may not get bet as heaviily as his performances would otherwise indicate. But that is also a dilemma. Will he be closer to 10-1 (ho-hum), or 20-1 (hmmmm!).

Another dilemma. Picking last (does picking last even constitute \"picking\"?), does he get the 20 (ho-hum), or the 1 (hmmmmm!).

If I get two \"hmmmms\", I\'m using him a lot, if not making him my key. If I get two ho-hums, I\'ll probably toss and hope for the best. If I get a hmmm and a ho-hum, well, that just makes a tough derby even tougher.

Re CTMC, it\'s just his hyperbole on horses he\'s betting against. Great future on SD! Good luck!

Bob