ten cent supers and 50 cent trifectas

[colin]

A bird in the hand. Of course it is better to get all of the money in your hand and pay the taxes later(if you can\'t offset them which I find hard to believe unless it\'s a real big number) but to think the winnings are diluted by small players pushing all buttons is ridiculous. They just add to the pool which can\'t be bad. To change topics a bit, what about takeout. Monmouth offers a 15% takeout pick 4 twice a day. The problem is with the pool hovering around 20k it is a great bet when the parlay is 500-2000 as the payouts are oftens 2 to 5 times the parlay but eventually the pick 4 should pay over 20k and you will be stuck with a ticket that is short due to pool size. I guess the pick 4 probably will only pay 20k a couple a times a meet but it is still a factor. Maybe Monmouth should offer 10 cent pick 4\'s. E

[BitPlayer]

JTC -

How is the book?

[JohnTChance]

> JTC -
>
> How is the book?

I went to the DRF site to buy Jim Mazur\'s Trainer detail books for the upcoming Del Mar meet. I saw Crist\'s EXOTIC BETTING book hawked there too, and I said: \"What the heck. Toilet reading. Let\'s throw that one in the cart too! Let\'s see what Crist has to say about my favorite wager, the superfecta.\"

I think what he\'s done is very worthwhile. Thumbs up. It\'s not a picking-winners handicapping book. Since any knucklehead can pick a winner, and the real key to profiting at the races is betting well, the subject matter is certainly worthwhile. Yes, he covers topics we all may already know about. But it can be good to get his approach on a lot of things and see specifically how, for example, he lays out his Pick-6 tickets. My only nitpick would be that I found his discussion of the superfecta lacking. Telling us that a popular way to play the super is to consider it a combo of a win selection and a trifecta... well, that\'s nice, but I thought he could have gotten more sophisticated about it beyond the obvious. For example, in my opinion only, that four-tiered bet essentially needs TWO keys: The top winning-tier horse who can win the race; and an UNDERKEY horse who will NOT win, but WILL finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th [because he\'ll have to go wide, is not fast enough, is from a low-percentage trainer that never gets the job done, or whatever].

In my opinion, the best writing about horse race betting is in Chapter 8, MODERN BETTING STRATEGY in Andy Beyer\'s book THE WINNING HORSEPLAYER, wherein he talks about \"constructing a situation\" [of bets] around several reasonable outcomes of a race. But to each, his own.

[MO]

First of all, regarding novice handicappers using the \"All\" button in 10 cent superfectas: On the very few ocassions where I invest in a race these days, this is actually a very good play. Why? Because of cheaters. Trainers who drug thier horses, jockey\'s who use buzzers... you get the picture. Why only 2 weeks ago I hit a $1200 super at Monmouth keying 2 horses to be on the board in a 7 horse field. My keys were the favorite who ran 3rd and a longshot who figured no worse than 4th. They ran 3-4 with 2 hopless longshots filling the exacta. I invested $124 into the race with my strong plays being exactas, win and trifectas. The super tickets were \"savers\".

So I signed for the ticket. Big deal. The law sucks. It was introduced by Bobby Kennedy in retaliation for the mafia doing money laundering back in the early 1960s.

When I hit for $133,000 in 1992 (\"Beyer On Speed\", chapter 7) the IRS audited me. But I had my shit together with losing tickets and programs. After I got done with them (not the other way around) they paid me the $3500 they owed me.

The moral of this story: HONESTY IS THE BEST POLICY!

[richiebee]

JTC:

   Is it fair to say that PERFECT DRIFT is the Eclipse Award winning \"Underkey\" horse?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Not sure I\'ve read that Beyer piece, may have to check it out. To my knowledge all winning exotics players propose a race theory and construct a bet based upon that theory. The form of that bet depends upon how complex the exotic wager is and how strong the theory is held.  The more complex the wager and complex the bet obviously the greater the chances to miss the cash or dilute the return. Its not Rocket Science. If it was guys like Crist and Beyer would never cash. Beyer picked A.P. Warrior to win the Kentucky Derby and after the race annointed Barbaro the Triple Crown winner. The kiss of death? I know, I know, I picked Sinister Minister. My horse still has a shot however. Beyers don\'t.

They sure do write a lot of books explaining how it is done though don\'t they?

Welcome back Bobinphilo, you\'re posts have been enjoyable to read. This time you\'re in agreement with my soundness principles. Last time I disagreed with your assessment of Barbaro. It appears you were correct both times even if Barbaro\'s big Derby win was part illusion.

[affirmedny]

1st time lasix Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wonder how the lower denomination wagers are
> affecting the pools at the tracks that offer them.
> I know my group at the simulcast venue {where we
> can\'t get the same bets} are now completely
> avoiding the tris and supers at those tracks.
> Since we try to structure our tickets for underlay
> value ...{splitting favorites, only using chaulk
> underneath etc} we feel there is dilution to our
> occasional winners. The price is now too cheap so
> gamblers {not handicappers} use the all button and
> spread their tickets much more easily.

It doesn\'t affect the payoffs AT ALL because just as much extra money gets bet on the losing combinations as the winning combination. The only difference is you have less chance of getting the rare \"all\" payoff in the 3rd or 4th spot. Avoiding these bets because the pools are \"diluted\" is foolish. Allowing these bets at smaller denominations lets more people in the pool (and in many cases they\'re not the savviest of handicappers). It can do nothing but good for the game.    

[JohnTChance]

> Is it fair to say that PERFECT DRIFT is the Eclipse Award winning \"Underkey\" horse?

richiebee,

Absolutely! Webster\'s Dictionary should consider amending their definition.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Underkey....Now you\'re talking. Perfect Drift and Place..... Perfect Together....ohh that was New Jersey and You...

NC Tony

[BitPlayer]

JTC -

Thanks for the review.  I generally like Crist\'s stuff, and this sounds like it\'s worth a purchase.  I\'ve also pulled out my copy of The Winning Horseplayer and read the chapter you suggested.  Good suggestion.  It\'s been a long time since I read it.  Maybe I\'ll reread the rest of the book as well.

Gratefully,

BitPlayer

[Boscar Obarra]

  Actually, small bettors polluting the pool with lots of random plays, is very likely to cost you when you like a longshot .  A few accidental hits by stabbers will cut your payoff sharply on the big ones.

[1st time lasix]

my point exactly!  I believe the nature of the paramutuel game is to have winning tickets that others do not.  I like to structure 3 or 4 horse exotic tickets after my dilligent handicapping in a way that will catch a nice price....perhaps with a vulnerable favorite keyed third or fourth....or splitting favorites with longer shots that might have a chance to hit the board for some solid handicapping reason. The lower denomination {10 cents} gives the stabbers and \"all\" players a chance to dilute my big tickets because their outlay is so small. Despite the arguments that it really doesn\'t matter....I don\'t buy it. You know syndicate groups or a crowd of buddies are going all/all/and then throwing in a couple of keyed contenders at the dime level trying to take down the whole pool. I no longer play trifectas or superfectas in the pools that allow it..... since at my simulcast venue I can not. At $1 minumum prices...you get less \"all\" play. It gets cost prohibitive.