The Jerry Brown Strategy

[jimbo66]

CH

I am with you on High Limit.  I posted before the race, as you did, that I thought he had no shot.  I was surprised to see he was JB\'s play, but I do understand the reasoning, his pattern did look good and he looked likely to fire a good race in the Derby, based on his pattern.  JB has been pretty clear that pace is not often factored into his selections, except as to the associated ground loss.  After listening to the seminar, I wrote off High limit as one of those \"methodology plays\" that a sheets player might like, but I couldn\'t play becaus of pace concerns.  

So, I see your point in the Derby that High Limit was pace hindered and it was very foreseeable BEFORE the race, regardless of injuries and drugs.  However, that doesn\'t mean injuries and drugs were not a factor.  We just don\'t know.

But I really think you are out in left field on Summerly and the Oaks.  What race were you watching where Summerly got a soft pace and no pressure and that was the driving force behind her win?  Sis City pushed her into the first turn, sat on her shoulder the entire race, drew even on the far turn, and then Summerly kicked away.  I thought that Summerly was a play based on T-Graph figures BEFORE the race, and posted as such.  She was AS FAST as Sis City before the Ashland.  Sis City freaked in the Ashland, Summerly didn\'t run at all.  That race was at Keenland.  Almost anybody would agree that at times keenland races have to be looked carefully and sometimes discounted as many horses LOVE that track and others don\'t run a  lick on it.  Before the Ashland both horses were around the \"3\" level on T=Graph.  So, Sis City at 3-5 was an underlay relative to 9-2 on Summerly.

Pace didn\'t make the race at Keenland and didn\'t make the race at Churchill Downs.  

You can\'t fit every race under the \"pace\" category.  

Derby this year, maybe.

Oaks this year, probably not.

[jimbo66]

CH,

don\'t count on High Limit running any better at Pimlico, at least not substantially better.

If Bellamy Road runs, I throw out High Limit again, regardless of the drug issues.

If you are Zito and watched the Derby, you have to come away with the conclusion that your horse is not rateable.  He will put Bellamy on the lead in the Preakness if he runs.  Did you hear Zito after the Derby, unlike yourself and Chuckles, he didn\'t think the pace was the deciding factor. He said Bellamy was in perfect position, as was High Fly, but they just didn\'t fire.  \"No excuses\".

He might conclude High Fly is distance challenged since he and Bailey both were concerned about that to begin with, and he probably concludes that Bellamy belongs on the lead.

I don\'t want High Limit on my tickets if he is chasing Bellamy or if he tries to rate off him and run him down.

Jimbo,

I didn\'t say Summerly\'s win on Friday wasn\'t OK. I said that her figure for the win looks no faster (and was probably slower) than her figures for the races she won earlier in the year under complete wraps (in other words where she probably could have run faster).

So my view from several weeks ago that her early season wins weren\'t as impressive as they looked because she was loose in soft paces was not disproved by her performance on Friday.

I think Sis City ran very subpar on Friday and Runway Model was obviously terrible. If I am correct about that, then their poor races make Summerly look better than she actually was.

jimbo,

>Did you hear Zito after the Derby, unlike yourself and Chuckles, he didn\'t think the pace was the deciding factor. He said Bellamy was in perfect position, as was High Fly, but they just didn\'t fire. \"No excuses\".<

He also thinks Sun King is his best horse.

:-)

[jbelfior]

Someone ask Edgar Prado who he would rather ride next...HI FLY/BELLAMY or SUN KING?



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

CH-- knock it off. The issue wasn\'t whether Summerly\'s races \"were as impressive as they looked\", it was whether the figures she earned in those races were accurate and representative. Right after the Ashland you posted saying the reason she got pasted was that those figures were NOT indicative-- that she only got them because the FG track  last time out was speed and inside biased (never mind that she wasn\'t even on the rail).

TGJB,

\"The issue wasn\'t whether Summerly\'s races \"were as impressive as they looked\", it was whether the figures she earned in those races were accurate and representative.\"

What are you talking about?

I completely agree with the above.

I don\'t have all your figures for her, but Beyer gave her a 95 \"ridden out\" in the Silver Bullet and a 96 \"easily best\" in the FG Oaks. I said she benefitted from a loose lead and easy pace in the FG Oaks and wouldn\'t run as fast if pressed by a quality horse (like Sis City) early.

The Ashland was a debacle and \"I CAN\'T\" account for how dreadful she was based just on pace/trip even though I thought Sis City would put her away like she did. I would have thought she would run better than that. We never got in details of what I expected of her here, but I conceded to Len that I couldn\'t account for how badly she actually ran that day. She was terrible.

My premilinary estimate for the race Friday is somewhere between 90-96 (probably on the slower side) but I havn\'t seen what Beyer gave it.  A wrapped up easy win in the FG Oaks earning a 96 probably translates into something \"like a 100\" if ridden out harder?  

So with the passage of almost 2 months of potential development it looks like she still didn\'t run as fast Friday as she ran when loose on the lead in the FG Oaks.

Plus, IMHO Sis City was dreadful Friday so getting loose of her in the first half Friday should have helped not hindered her speed figure Friday.  

I don\'t think there\'s anything wrong with your figures. I thought Summerly was nothing special going into the Ashland and nothing I saw Friday has changed my mind.



Post Edited (05-09-05 17:24)

[TGJB]

CH-- I give up.

[jimbo66]

JB,

CH has a skill.

If you do a search on the words \"I give up\", I think the only times you see it under a TGJB post, are in reference to a CH thread.....  

[miff]

TGJB,

How could you let Class wear you out so easily, I\'ve been debating you off and on for years and you come at me every time.Must be Post Derby syndrome.

TGJB,

If you want me to stop talking about PACE you should just say so and or send me an e-mail and I\'ll stop.

I thought the collapse of the Derby had inspired more interest in the result and preps. I can see from Jimbo\'s comments I have overstayed my welcome again.  

Just don\'t misrepresent what I have said or think either intentionally, because I haven\'t communicated it all well, or because you don\'t agree with it.

jimbo,

I\'ll be happy to leave now, but please don\'t ask me to interpret results in ways I think are not correct. I\'m entitled to think the pace was a factor to whatever degree I think in any race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

class,

I recall attending a thorograph seminar back in about 1992 or 93 and pace or free winging horses were a topic in regard to being careful with the probability a better figured horse would overcome a quicker one with an \"all his own way scenario\".

Now, it wasn\'t Jerry that said it. It was a younger man and I dont remember his name. And if that was a TGraph tenet, it may have changed.  However, its an angle i\'ve played for years. when I can truly isolate a front end horse that will be alone even though his numbers are inferior to stalkers, I\'m usually gonna bet that horse, especially at a price.

[jimbo66]

Class,

You give the SAME interpretation to every result though.  Of course, there is free speech on this board and I shouldn\'t have asked you to stop posting about pace.  

But really, there are so many things that affect outcomes, you seem to retrofit EVERY race to the pace.  

I am sure many on this board do put more credence in pace than Jerry does, but pace is not the explanation for every result.  And I don\'t know why you would want to post on the thorograph board that it is the reason for every race.

Look at the Oaks again.  You really think Summerly walked on an easy lead. She didn\'t. She ran a nice race, under pressure and pulled away nicely.  Good ride by Bailey.

But the race fits nicely with the T-Graph figures.  As I said before, Sis City and Summerly both ran \"3\" tops before the AShland.  Sis City freaked in the race, Summerly didn\'t seem to like Keenland, not even showing her usual speed.  

Sis City maybe bounced off the big effort in the Oaks and Summerly ran back to her \"3\" (maybe, we will see when the figures come out).  The point is that \"pace\" is not the explanation for that race.

Arguing pace in the Derby is a much better debate.  It certainly did play a part, who knows how much.  Which is what might make the Preakness a good betting opportunity.

Jimbo,

Last one and then I\'m gone.


I didn\'t say that.

I said she ran no faster Friday than she did earlier this spring (IMO she ran slower). I think the race Friday was pretty honest though. Pace was not a factor.

I don\'t think pace is a factor in every race. I only tend to talk about it when I think it was and leave it out of the conversation completely when I think it wasn\'t. So it seems like I think it always was. It just so happens that in IMO several of the preps this year (and the Derby) were impacted by the pace to varying degrees.