Belllamy Road to carry 326 pounds in the Derby

[miff]

Joe B,

Someone I respect alot at CD said HL has trained great. I can\'t forgive HL for his gutless performance in the BG.To me he laid perfect behind a \"target\" in Spanish Chestnut and he followed the pace, Joe, he didn\'t make it,imv.

Anyway 15-1 or not,the stretch at CD is not for the feint of heart,and I do not think he can finish with this group .With 20 going, you have take stands \"against\" and he\'s one of mine.If I\'m wrong,I won\'t cash. That happens to me about 70% of the time.

Joe,

Naturally it\'s going to depend on the post time odds, but right now I am leaning towards Bandini, High Fly, and Greely\'s Galaxy based on what I \"think\" the odds will be.

I don\'t buy the straight up stats on bounces for big figures, new tops coming in, etc... I think each horse has to analyzed individually.

I sort of think that BR ran the best race last time out. However,  between having quality speed inside of him, 10F, the potential for lesser performance than that, and the fact that that last race was against garbage cans on a track that certainly wasn\'t hostile to speed, I wan\'t to play against him as the favorite (assuming he is). Naturally, he has a big shot if he fires close to his last. I just see a lot of ways for him not to.

To me, Bandini\'s figure is a key. I think the pace was a bit fast and impacted several of the horses. On paper, I also totally agree with JB that it doesn\'t make sense that all the horses that finished well behind him ran poorly/slowly. They are mostly a very consistent group of lightly raced improving 3YOs. So no matter how you get there (numerically or subjectively, with pace or without), I think Bandini\'s BG was probably a high quality peformance. I love Pletcher and I think he will get another big race out of him.

I think High Fly\'s Florida Derby was better than it looks. He raced close to a fast pace and finished well enough. I think he is better than most people give him credit for. I think he has a similar chance to Afleet Alex and Greely\'s Galaxy.

I more or less make Afleet Alex and Greely\'s Galaxy similar.

AA has the much better overall record but he has never looked like a 10F horse to me. Maybe I\'m wrong, but I\'m discounting his chances a little based on that. His last race was a slow pace that turned into a sprint home and so was his Champagne. I\'d be more confident if I had seen him cope with a tough pace at a route and finish well at a distance.

GG has just that one huge figure and only 4 starts. Not sure what to expect, but it was a fast race last out. Both AA and GG killed similar \"2nd string\" fields by similar amounts.

I\'m not sure what to make of Sun King. If he wins it won\'t be with my money, but it\'s not impossible.

After that I think horses like Wilko, Noble Causway, Giacomo and other big long shot closers are very live to get a piece of the super or triple if the pace is fast enough to take out a few of the speeds and/or a couple of others don\'t want 10F.

I haven\'t actually created an odds line yet and I might still change my mind a little, but that\'s my thinking right now.



Post Edited (05-05-05 15:42)

[flushedstraight]

I have formulated a betting strategy based on the following points I have deluded myself into believing. Feel free to throw poo on it.


- Bandini is a must toss at the expected low price; they cashed (literally, at the windows) in the Bluegrass, now it\'s derby fever; big top (I have faith in the TG #) with little foundation, only 3 weeks off

- Must use Bellamy Road for obvious reasons; too short a price to key and low fun factor being the big chalk and Kinsman

- Must use to a lesser extent Afleet Alex, Greeley\'s Galaxy, & High Limit; AA has the nice neg # AND the foundation but also Rose, a relatively short price, and a decent chance at a wide or troubled trip; GG & HL could either run well and odds will be fair (or maybe not for HL, we\'ll see! toss at < 10-1, win saver at > 20-1)

- In tris & supers must use Sun King, Noble Causeway, & Wilko in 3 & 4 slots

- The key in all exotics is High Fly; I have no good reasons not to expect him to either pair up or move slightly forward off his last, considering 5 weeks off and the strong foundation; Based on his PROVEN effective stalking style he projects to have a good trip; he might not be as fast as some of these but he\'s been the most consistent this year; the proven faster ones look all too shaky to key on or too short, HF just needs to run his race (probable) and has a decent chance at a top 3 finish unless 3 of the big figure ones pair up (not probable)

- Since Bellamy Road can still bounce and trounce (trademark) he will be used heavier in tris and keyed on top in the super, and also on top in a saver exacta with HF; the super is more of a chalk saver, too many combos using so many in here


Wagers will look like this:


Tri;

HF
BR(x2),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
HF
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL
HF


Super;

BR
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W


Ex;

HF
BR(x5),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x10),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF


Win;
HF(x40) at > 10-1
HL(x10) at > 20-1
GG(x5)  at > 20-1

[jbelfior]

CH--

OK. Not sure Pletcher can get another one out of BANDINI. I do not agree with you on that.

As for HIGH FLY, now there\'s a tenacious fighter who will be tough to pass in the lane.


It may be too much to ask GGlxy to give another ace performance off of too little foundation.

I\'d bet GIACOMO before I bet SUN KING.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe,

Yea, I didn\'t want to start that whole foundation debate again, but I think that is a small negative for GG.  

Pletcher is one notch below God. Just keep that in mind when you bet the exotics. ;-)

[sekrah]

Miff..

Was Dominguez using the whip on High Limit down the stretch?

I haven\'t seen the race.. What was the \"Bobble at 1/16th pole\" ?


There\'s one fact here that I think is important..  High Limit\'s effort in the LA Derby was a big one coming off a 6 month layoff.

A month rest for the BG was probably barely enough rest.  If Frankel knows he has a derby horse, he\'s not going to crack HL to win the BG.

If Dominguez wasn\'t urging HL around the track, then it was nothing more than a workout.

[RICH]

Watch them on kentuckyderby.com, HIGH LIMIT looked under the whip at the to of the stretch. In the Florida derby, HIGH FLY looked looked like he was doing it much easier, kinda under wraps, check it out.