Here We Go -- Skippin' the Cup

[kev]

Well said.

[TGJB]

Catalin-- good idea. YOU tell him.

As for the % of tops being different-- shipping (especially from cold to warm) can make a difference, as will the races coming at the end of a long campaign. But these differences should be the same for everybody if you compare their % in other races to the BC. I definitely do NOT think the level of competition etc. should result in the % going down-- it doesn\'t in other races throughtout the year. Stake horses run a much HIGHER % of tops than other horses-- the exception being the Triple Crown, and that has to do with other factors.

>I definitely do NOT think the level of competition etc. should result in the % going down-- <

If I am understanding you correctly, I have to disagree.

The average stake (these days) has about 3 legitimate contenders, a handful of other horses that would have to improve to get the money, and a couple of duds.

Breeder\'s Cup races are sometimes 6-8 deep (or more) with horses that have a very legitimate shot. In a large field of very high quality and fairly evenly matched horses you are going to get more horses that aren\'t going to reproduce their typical figures because of their position and pace preferences relative to where they actually wind up and other aspects of trip and ability over and above the impact of ground loss.

I agree that there are other reasons why the Derby often produces failures besides what I am highlighting above, but some of it is the same.

In the old days, typical Grade I races were a lot like the BC is these days. A few top notch horses would routinely get trounced (and produce subpar speed figures) because the fields were so deep with talent. Then they would come back with their typical figure when spotted where they got the position and pace they wanted and slightly weaker competition to contend with when the battle began.

If you think every aspect of a horse\'s ability and performance can be reduced to a number, you obviously aren\'t to agree with me. That\'s OK. But IMHO, you are misunderstanding the impact the depth and quality of a field can have on the speed figures of individual horses. The BC is a perfect example of it.

Now if you are saying that everyone else\'s stats should be similar to Frankel\'s, you are missing one of my prior points that Frankel\'s greatest skill is in spotting his horses properly. That skill gets neutralized in the BC and puts him on a level playing field with everyone else.

Finally, again, we are talking about small samples. If Frankel has 2-3 very good years in the BC in the next 5 years, the stats might look very different.



Post Edited (10-15-04 14:43)

[asfufh]

Current Top Ten Trainers/Purse Money


          Trainers
                                 --------
 
  Name                 Starts           1st    2nd    3rd       Purses
  ----                 ------           ---    ---    ---       ------
 Todd A. Pletcher        764            192    134    101   $13,301,307
 Robert J. Frankel       392            111     72     52   $11,930,412
 Steven M. Asmussen     1730            424    271    274   $10,720,289
 John C. Servis          217             50     25     30    $8,456,684
 Bob Baffert             460             87     56     66    $6,741,724
 Jeff Mullins            428            123     81     45    $6,145,741
 Richard E. Mandella     127             18     22     23    $5,905,978
 Nicholas P. Zito        365             64     52     43    $5,732,393
 Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.  473            129     92     69    $5,728,535
 Scott A. Lake          1310            283    240    190    $5,710,402

[P.Eckhart]

Is there any confirmation to the speculation that GZ has developed foot problems again?

[bdhsheets]

10-12 Zapper worked 6f in 1:11.12 at Bel. and has a steady work tab. Not exactly a work you\'d expect from an ouchy horse, but who knows fer certain.....after cranking out a -4.75 and back to back -6.5\'s on relatively short rest, wouldn\'t surprise me.

[TGJB]

Cole Norman trainee Beau\'s Town has been withdrawn from the BC Sprint due to \"his blood being a little off\". This despite being stabled locally, no less.