73 so far

[bluechip21]

I leave for a day and it resolves to this?

Who is Joe Rogan? Must be a TGJB troll.

The fact that this has degenerated back to politics really shows how the NHC chatter has deteriorated. Fine with me. Perhaps Richie Curtis made a typo and meant to say “Native American” ... regardless. The Dems aren’t going to let Bern Dogg win. Amy K has the personality of a door knob. Mayor Pete, while I love the guy, isn’t gonna happen. Here’s to four more years of President Business. Plus side? At least congress won’t tie them selves up with horses coming up lame after a Santa Anita work report.

All that aside, NYRA XC p5 looks pretty legit this weekend.

[hellersorr]

You, sir, are clearly a man of considerable wisdom and exceedingly fine judgment.

[TGJB]

Ummm… how do you know who is underrated?

[Rich Curtis]

I can tell by comparing the number of views their posts get to the number of views their posts deserve to get.

And in the case of BitPlayer, there is something else: Several years back, he praised a book by Daniel Kahneman. That was really all I needed. If BitPlayer is not on Mount Rushmore, BitPlayer is underrated.

[skitimber]

Not sure if this was overlooked or someone else commented. If so, my apologies.

So many reasons to prefer hitting six 5-1\'s than one 40-1.

a) More plays.
b) More money (yes, more money!) Just letting your winnings ride on a 3 horse parlay would get you 125-1.  Six in a row: 15625 - 1!!!  Better than 40-1.
c) If you bet big on a 40-1 shot, you would cut down the odds far more than on a 5-1 shot
d) If you can winning 5-1\'s consistently, you would be the better handicapper because . . .
e) There are fewer opportunities for winning 40-1 shots.

Sure there are more, but if I had a choice between going to the track with the guy who made only 6 bets last year, all winners at 5-1, or the guy who made only one bet and won at 40-1, I\'d want to go with Mr. 5-1 and would seek his advice.  Then, after the races, would ask Mr. 40-1 to get a beer and explain his luck (sorry, his thinking!)

[P-Dub]

skitimber Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure if this was overlooked or someone else
> commented. If so, my apologies.
>
> So many reasons to prefer hitting six 5-1\'s than
> one 40-1.
>
> a) More plays.
> b) More money (yes, more money!) Just letting your
> winnings ride on a 3 horse parlay would get you
> 125-1.  Six in a row: 15625 - 1!!!  Better than
> 40-1.
> c) If you bet big on a 40-1 shot, you would cut
> down the odds far more than on a 5-1 shot
> d) If you can winning 5-1\'s consistently, you
> would be the better handicapper because . . .
> e) There are fewer opportunities for winning 40-1
> shots.
>
> Sure there are more, but if I had a choice between
> going to the track with the guy who made only 6
> bets last year, all winners at 5-1, or the guy who
> made only one bet and won at 40-1, I\'d want to go
> with Mr. 5-1 and would seek his advice.  Then,
> after the races, would ask Mr. 40-1 to get a beer
> and explain his luck (sorry, his thinking!)

You missed my point.

The original comment was that 40-1 and other longshots were luck. Quite an assertion.

You\'re also making an assumption that the guy who can hit 40-1 shots can\'t hit a 5-1 shot. Those get hit also.

You\'re also making a huge assertion that the 5-1 horses can be strung along for winning parlays. They can, but you really think these guys are stringing together 3-6 race parlays???

Betting big depends on the size of the pool. Large bets into smaller pools knock down those prices also.

Hitting more 5-1 shots make you a better handicapper than a guy hitting fewer at 40-1....how so?? Because you pick more winners??

I guess Lemons Forever, Storm The Court, Volponi, etc...those were \"luck\"?? Not if you used this product. Guys that hit 5-1 shots are all brilliant handicappers??

I think finding longshots at 40-1 takes more skill than hitting 5-1 shots. Just my opinion.

BC day was very good to me, getting \"lucky\" with that 45-1 shot. I think I\'m pretty good. Not the best, but better than a lot of guys who hit 5-1 horses and can\'t pull the trigger on a long shot. I sat next to a couple pretty good handicappers on BC Friday, they thought I was nuts playing STC.

You can hang out with your 5-1 guys, I\'ll hang out with the guy that takes home more cash and ask him how he did it. It aint always luck.

[skitimber]

Not trying to offend and I wasn\'t comparing a single 40 - 1 shot to a single 5 - 1.

I was comparing a single 40 - 1 vs. SIX 5-1\'s.

We\'re assuming that the one guy gave you a single selection and the other gave you six selections, and all seven horses hit.

Just looking at the odds against both: one is 40-1 while the other is 15625 to 1.
That\'s not even close.

If you\'re making different assumptions, different odds.

[Bet Twice]

You guys are mixing in “real life” with NHC tournament play.  The point of the original post and article is that the 2wp format favors those taking stabs at bombs in every race and hoping to get lucky, and is not a true reflection of handicapping ability.  Sure, we all hit some long shots based on handicapping, but the format lends itself to random results, where luck plays a much larger role than it should.  I think most would agree that the live money format tends to be more reflective of skill.

[P-Dub]

skitimber Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not trying to offend and I wasn\'t comparing a
> single 40 - 1 shot to a single 5 - 1.
>
> I was comparing a single 40 - 1 vs. SIX 5-1\'s.
>
> We\'re assuming that the one guy gave you a single
> selection and the other gave you six selections,
> and all seven horses hit.
>
> Just looking at the odds against both: one is 40-1
> while the other is 15625 to 1.
> That\'s not even close.
>
> If you\'re making different assumptions, different
> odds.

Nobody disputes that a 6 horse parlay at 5/1 each wins more than a single 40-1 shot.

How likely is it that someone is going to feed you six consecutive winning 5/1 shots?? I was never making that assumption. I don\'t know of many people that would receive picks, and decide to run them all together in a parlay.

My point, and I\'ll leave it alone after this, is that hitting 40-1 shots isn\'t always \"luck\"......and that hitting 5/1 shots isn\'t a better show of skill.