The Ground Pounder

[P-Dub]

Why is it that a horse loses a couple races by a 1/2  and a head and we conclude that he doen\'t have any heart?? This colt finished 6 and 4 lengths in front of the 3rd place horse so its not like he was backing up to the field. TCE had to run a big number to beat him and Imperialism just got up to win from dead last in the San Rafael (45.3 for the 1/2 mile). This horse should be the controlling speed, save ground (even with Smith), and has number power. He\'s never finished worse than second, owns a win in a Gr.1 route.  The only question is can he get the distance. Against this group, I\'ll take my chances with the lead turning for home.

[ronwar]

Hey Chuckles,

It really seems you\'re trying to talk yourself into something or out of something, for that matter.  Obviously you are having a hard time deciding what to do with Lion.  I\'m having the same battle with what to do with Read the Footnotes.

Its been my experience that the hoss that keeps biting at you is indeed the one that will eat you up if you leave him off your ticket.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m not sure he\'ll have the lead turning for home.

I understand the bet on T-Graph though. I know he factors fast with a previous fig that is in the comfort zone regarding regression.

I still think if he was a War Emblem Cliff wouldn\'t have been able to pick him up last.

I think he\'ll be on my ticket. Besides I always fret when I\'m on the verge of Ka-Ching.  lol



Post Edited (04-30-04 02:44)

[FORTKNOX]

What about the horse in the one hole?

If Lion Heart couldn\'t wire the Blugrass, why should he be able to do it in the Derby?

[P-Dub]

Limehouse could gun from the rail, but LH pace figures are better than everyone else. Why the KD and not the BG? Because hopefully the pace will be a bit softer. Also, he was beaten by a horse who had to throw down a big number to win. As stated, he was 6 lengths clear of the 3rd horse so its not like half the field is on his heels. 1 horse beat him in both his losses and it was far back to the 3rd horse each time. In no way am I saying he\'s a sure thing, but when you combine: number power, lone speed (hopefully), no traffic troubles, decent path on the turns.....its going to take either a collapse by LH or someone else to run a big race to beat him. Not to mention who knows how these horses will handle an off track. If this horse has the lead by a couple lengths turning for home, I\'ll take my chances.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

P-Dub wrote:

> saying he\'s a sure thing, but when you combine: number power,

I\'ve never entirely trusted the numbers from the Blugrass. Strange as it may sound, Cliff\'s number is more legitimate than Rion Hart\'s.

> lone speed (hopefully), no traffic troubles, decent path on the
> turns.....its going to take either a collapse by LH or someone
> else to run a big race to beat him. Not to mention who knows
> how these horses will handle an off track. If this horse has
> the lead by a couple lengths turning for home, I\'ll take my
> chances.

Madcap Escapade was a good example of a horse trying to run further than it should. She staggered home. But she was ridden miserably. The BEST thing Rion Hart has going for him is my old man likes him. I think the old guy is wrong however...lol

[Michael D.]

both velazquez and pletcher said they were going to reel in ME any time they wanted. my opinion: i don\'t blame bailey for just trying to catch velazquez off guard. he was not going to beat him any other way. Ash took about twice the money ME did (i think). the public had a pretty good idea that ME was not going to beat Ash. bailey might have saved second by rating a bit more, but what the heck, he went for the win the only way he possibly could have won.



Post Edited (04-30-04 19:48)

[FORTKNOX]

P-Dub:

Thanks for the analysis.  I was actually playing the devil\'s advocate when I posted, just to test my own views with the board expertise.

Chuckles:

Take it from me a long time Keeneland local: THE CLIFF\'S EDGE BLUEGRASS NUMBER IS PHONEY because of the closing bias at Keeneland. All this stuff about a speed bias at Keeneland is BS and has been for years.  If you want a real speed bias try Turfway Park in the winter.  Anyway, on Bluegrass day, it was all closers.

Prediction:

ON A FAIR TRACK, Lion Heart will make the rail (not 3 wide as in the Bluegrass) and put away any and all early challengers with moderate to fast fractions.  And, the closers will be tripping over themselves for the exacta.  Moreover, if he changes leads properly, he will win for fun.

Besides, Beyer has put the kiss of death on TCE.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ve looked at the chart for the entire Bluegrass card 2 dozen times now. The strip played equally well to wire types, pace types and closers Bluegrass Stakes Day. Arguably, as the day wore on it played to speed more. That fact and the closing fractions of the top two are the best evidence the race is legitimate. However, it was sandwiched around turf and cheap racing and the one race that was run in decent time was run four races earlier. I think the track was speeding up but the quality of racing was so pitiful it was hard to get a handle on the speed. Quality speed seemed to fair well. Cheap speed not so well.

However, I don\'t think Cliff  closed into a monster pace horse and I don\'t think a great pace horse set fractions as ridiculously fast as some figures have indicated. Stupid fast...imbecile fast.

To my eye Rion ran the same race he ran in the San Rafael without as much pace to press him.

Year in and year out the figures from the Bluegrass are the most counterfeit in all of racing. I will be betting that the Bluegrass is once again a complete charade.

Good luck to the Bluegrass speed figure devotees. May you bet only what you can afford to lose and have plenty left to buy good beer (not guiness) to take the edge off.



CtC

[P-Dub]

CTC,
Your dislike seems to be bigger than this race. Why do you talk about this horse with such disdain?? LH isn\'t going to be the only horse I play on top, but at 10-1 and the positives he has I\'ll key him in some tri\'s. Also, who do you think will beat him??

Regards, P-Dub

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Theres a lot not to like.

Theres Mike Smith and his goofy petition signing.

Theres Michael Tabor and whoever the other part owner is, (By the way I understand Tabor won\'t even be at Churchill for the race, he\'ll be watching the 2000 Guineas is my understanding), guys that spend millions of dollars on unraced horses (This one cost 1.4 million and isn\'t particularly well bred at that) and all things being equal its enjoyable to see them burn money. Though they certainly have money to spare. essentially, its rooting for the underdog, even when the horses like Rion aren\'t favored. Theres plenty of little guys in this field to root for.

Then theres Patrick Biancone. He tested positive for substances in Hong Kong. I understand three times. So now he\'s here to take advantage of our lax substance monitering.

Rion has a favorable pace scenario because fate has left out the horses that would head him early. He does have some speed, though he can\'t negotiate a turn to save his life and I could see him causing some serious problems on the turn. Even if he breaks sharp, which isn\'t always the case, I don\'t think he\'ll negotiate the turn. Rion Hart is the kind of horse you really wouldn\'t mind just sitting in the gate and not even coming out.

He\'s an Empire Maker without all the hype and when you only bet one winner in the Derby you get your game face on for your adversaries.

[jbelfior]

My buddy is convinced LH waits on horses. He bases it on the fact that he always pulls up ahead of them.

Perhaps it\'s time to dust off the dual qualifier system. Not a bad way to go, especially looking at the Thoro #\'s as well as the BRIS second and late pace #s.

$20 triple box.....LH, RTF, TCE. I\'ll save with LIMEHOUSE and POLLARD\'S VISION (Johnny V is hot)in place of TCE, especially if track comes up wet.

This has been a terrific discussion over the past several weeks. The passion and knowledge displayed by most of the people on here is unsurpassed. Thanks to TGJB for having this.

Good Luck to all tomorrow on Derby Day,
Joe B.

[FORTKNOX]

Chuckles,

You are right that, lately, the the Bluegrass fig horses have been crashing in the Derby.  I take it you think TCE is a throw out too.

But, I do recall Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero and Unbridled.  Now they, did not run great figs in the BG, but than had good excuses in talented races and fixed things on Derby day.  That\'s my angle on LH.  If he can correct his lead changes or quit waiting on horses . . . . (either will do, both will crush)

His connections my be 1) politically goofy (Smith) 2) wasteful with money (Tabor), and 3) possibly unethical (Biaconne), but LH doesn\'t know that. And none of those things ever caused a horse to lose.

But don\'t get me wrong, I odn\'t worship LH--he is by means a lock:

1.) A bad break could kill him and that easy to do in the Derby.

2.) An insane speed duel could cook him--not likely though.

3.) A MODERATELY closer-biased track could spoil his lead (which I still believe the BG was--how else could TCE make such a huge  jump up.  But we can disagree on this--you have your charts; I handicapped and watched the races live during meet.

Ironically, a VERY DEEP/TIRING TRACK will also favor LH because the jocks will let him go a super slow fractions and he won\'t be anymore tired in the strech than the closers--a little known and rare pace angle.

In sum, LH should be the favorite here.  So, he is a great bet as third oe fourth choice.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

In attempting to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby for the third year running the gamblers instinct may have escaped in the interests of finding the most logical winner. The list of positives pertaining to the horse I'm selecting is in aggregate so extensive that selecting another horse would be completely illogical, especially this year trying to maintain a streak. They are as follows and this in no way implies they've all been ascertained:

Speed Figures:

No other horse in the field has run as fast and that conclusion is based upon my observations and Thorograph, which is in a different ballpark from the other figure makers. The horse was fast first time and has been fast ever since. Even on a regression last, the colt still ran a negative number spotting significant weight to a nice horse. He broke from far outside and overcame both that post and a muddy track to cruise to a convincing lead and win after rating behind the pace setter. The figure from the Arkansas Derby in all likelihood will win the Kentucky Derby. Much has been made about the lead shrinking and a late lead change. The fact remains the horse closed in twenty five seconds and won while Lion Heart closed in the same factored fraction and lost. The second place finisher in the Arkansas Derby closed as well as the renowned closer, The Cliff's Edge. It's difficult to say whether my selection was all out late in the race. When a horse wins unchallenged, who is to say what he could have dug down to find? Borrego never got past him after the wire and he carried lighter weight.

Works at Churchill:

No horse worked better. In fact the works for this selection were so impressive that they took the breath away from all who witnessed them, some saying they had never seen a horse work better. The works weren't all though. The gallops were just as authoritative. Gallops over a mile under a 170 pound exercise rider who kept the brakes on throughout and according to observers, the horse returned each time hardly taking a deep breath.

Fractional Times:

The splits in this horses races have been consistently fast, but the key word is consistent. The last horse I observed rationing speed so efficiently was Sunday Silence. There doesn't appear to be another animal in this field so energy efficient. That said Lion Heart has a big internal split and he's capable of burying most horses that try and run with him.  The key to the Derby in my estimation is how fast Lion Heart runs the half and how far back my selection is.  If he tries to run right on Lion Heart from the half mile to the six furlong mark it may set the race up for an off pace horse. The off pace horses I favor most are Song of the Sword. (Ran a triple split run in the Lexington) Borrego, (Note the 8 lengths he went wide in the Louisiana Derby) and The Cliff\'s Edge, (bounce potential factored)

Off Tracks:

With the possibility of an off track how can a convincing nine-furlong win over an off track be ignored?

Negatives:

The negatives are the aforementioned loss of leading margin in the last race and pedigree. Rarely have I seen a horse on its face so lightly pedigreed for the Derby. I don't think I've ever bet one with pedigree this light. However, something is already carrying this horse beyond its apparent pedigree. His dam could run and he has some stamina influences a couple generations back but that doesn't explain it. Even if he doesn't win this Derby he's still a needle in a haystack.

Pace:

After fighting for days over the likely pace, I think its likely that Lion Heart will be the pace setter. However, I also believe Read the Footnotes has pace potential to engage Lion Heart sooner than he would prefer. Whether that develops and is to the benefit of my selection is unclear.

The Wager:

In consideration of the foregoing my selection has to be Smarty Jones. I will key him atop perfectas with Lion Heart, The Cliff's Edge, Song of the Sword, Read the Footnotes, Borrego and Pollard's Vision, weighted 35%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 5%, 5%. I will make reverses with Lion Heart, Song of the Sword and The Cliff's Edge, weighted 15%, 5% and 5%.  Lion Heart in case Lion leaves him with too much to do, Song of the Sword, because I sense the most potential for improvement and The Cliff's Edge on Zito and TGJB. I struggled mightily with what to do with Lion Heart and I've settled on making him the most worthy challenger. I will make a small win bet on Song of the Sword. My trifecta key will be Smarty over Lion, Sword, TCE and RTF. I will make a second key with Smarty over Lion, Sword over all I've mentioned here as well as Tapit, Birdstone and Friend's Lake.  I've covered more bases than I usually do and I\'m still leaving out some very good horses. My wagers are scaled back somewhat this Derby year.

Good Luck



Post Edited (05-01-04 15:19)

[ronwar]

As the race approaches, I\'ve gone back and forth a couple of times.  I love Lion Heart as my previous post has shown.  The main reason why is because I do not think anyone close to him can overcome his speed and then run by him and the rest will have too much to do in a large field.

That being said, I believe two horse have displayed the kind of lick and # power to pounce on the Lion and keep going.  
Read The Footnotes and Smarty Jones.
The most interesting of the two is Smarty.  For many of the reasons you mentioned. A lot have been made of his negative 3, but for a horse who ran three 0\'s in a row, one at 2, that may have not knocked him out.  The back up to the negative 1, may just be a leveling of point, for a super fast and talented horse.  We may be witnessing greatness today.

So I\'ll play the above three and throw in the Cliff\'s Edge and splash in some homeruns in the 3rd and 4th spot with Minister Eric, Pro Prado and Pollards Vision

Good Luck