Only one Derby horse

[richiebee]

lovetwogamble Wrote:
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> Any thoughts, experts?
>
> A Bellamy Road colt out of an Awesome Again mare
> sure got my attention for for the Derby distance.
> And I get Bill Mott, too?  Hmmmmm.....

Not sure you want HOF trainer Bill Mott for a Derby contender. In an
outstanding career going back to 1978, Mott has had very little success in the
Triple Crown races. A second by Illinois Derby winner Vision and Verse in the
1999 Belmont. A win by Drosslmeyer in the 2010 Belmont.

Now if you tell me you like a Bellamy Road colt to win the Wood, I\'ll start
remembering BR\'s 17-1/2 length blowout in the 2005 running of that race, in
which he equaled the track record for 9 furlongs (1:47).

[Bet Twice]

General Bellamy caught my eye too.  Not sure what kind of number he will get for the Jerome effort but his numbers going in we\'re relatively slow.  Would be quite a bit of development needed to get down to derby contention.  I could see him making an impact later in the year, perhaps in the Belmont or Travers.

[miff]

Ran a top but still very slow compared to many others at this point.

[Wrongly]

Always fun to start discussing the Derby nearly 5 months in advance.  Can\'t wait until opening weekend at Keeneland this year.  Already hearing hype about Itsaknockout after his fast 5 1/4 length romp Sunday at GP.

Jim, I think it\'s a bit unfair to compare Dallas Stewarts last two runner up horses.  Last year, Commanding Curve came in with a Very Nice Line (5/5,2) and and a very under rated 3rd place effort in the La Derby.  (I love to see Derby Preps where a horse gets bumped around a bit in a large field but still comes on at the end.)  While Golden Soul the prior year is a completely different story.  I have said this before and it\'s been profitable for me.  CD is kind to turf runners, especially when the track comes up wet.  In 2013 it rain both on Oaks day and Derby day and I think the track was listed as sloppy.  To me that was a major factor in Golden Soul\'s performance.

Thought Exodus was a very nice looking colt and bet on him when he appeared at Keeneland.  Still the horse that impressed me the most during the Keeneland meet was Carpe Diem, extremely rare to see a horse win a 5 1/2 furlong race and stretch out the way he did to win the 1 1/16 Breeders Futurity.  Call me crazy but I\'m awaiting the return of Casse/Oxley\'s Skyway who won the Best Pal at Delmar.  Again it\'s early, way early.

[miff]

Wrong,

Time does fly, Derby now less than 4 months away.In the next 60 days the cloudy picture will become much clearer.

Mike

[TGJB]

In 60 days it will be early March. And only marginally clearer.

I will say this-- this is by far the strongest crop ever, in figure terms. There are a whole bunch that have already run really fast, and while some will fall apart, for the most part the fast ones been given time off since doing it and are being managed properly. That makes it very unlikely some new shooter will come along and beat all of them.

[miff]

Agree with the number of fast 2yr olds but disagree about March timing.Most,not all,recent derby winners declared themselves by like mid March.

[TGJB]

Along with a lot of others who declared themselves too soon and were going back into the Derby. And mid March is 70 days.

[miff]

Will take fast over slow in March all day,60 or 70 days.

[ajkreider]

He was picking up the pieces, but against the also rans.  Didn\'t gain anything against the winner, despite that one being on cruise control.