California Chrome now 1 to 3.5 to not win Derby

[TGJB]

Over 19 years, or 100 years, one for twenty would be average...

[jp702006]

Interesting. Why does every talking head on tv, columnist and trainers make such a big deal out of being stuck down inside in the derby? The 20 post use to have the same perception until Big Brown won in 2008.

[moosepalm]

From 1975 to 2012, the 1 post was 1 for 37 on top, and hit the super 22% of the time, which ranked it 10th (might be lower, but I ran out of fingers).  The 9, 12 and 14 posts came up with a donut for 37, the 17 is 0 for 35, and the 19 is 0 for 16.  All of those posts, plus the 6, 11 and 15 have the lowest hit rates for the super.  So, the 9 and 11 aren\'t particularly good, but the 10 has won 6 out of 37, and has a chart topping 41% hit rate in the super.  The 20 post ranks second in the super at 38%, but that was with a limited 8 horse sampling.  As is the case with so much of Derby data, evidence is all over the map.  Bottom line is that you can get in trouble from any post, though some find the configuration of gate to the first turn to be detrimental for the rail horse, and others don\'t want to deal with possible ground loss from the far outside.

[ajkreider]

Wasn\'t I\'ll have another out of the 19?

[jp702006]

Thanks for the good data moose.

[moosepalm]

ajkreider Wrote:
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> Wasn\'t I\'ll have another out of the 19?

Yes.  The data I was looking at was compiled prior to the 2012 Derby.  I should have said 1975-2011.  That would account for the 37 races in the sample.  Way too many for my fingers and toes.

[ajkreider]

I only remember because I tossed him from the top spot, because \"nobody wins from out there\".

We see how that turned out.

[Old Mr. Boston]

When it comes to the Derby it appears that an outside post is no hindrance and possibly a good thing. Since 1995, 9 winners have started from the auxiliary gate (post 15-20). I would suspect that not getting buried inside in a 20 horse field is what makes the results counter-intuitive.....Ken

[miff]

Slug Super Saver only recent derby winner to need 1w 1w trip. All other recent winners lost ground. MTB also 1w but tons best that day with huge last half mile run.

[TGJB]

We actually ran this but aren\'t using it in the seminar. If you exclude the two dead rail Derbies, the ones that finished 1-4 averaged a half path better on saving ground than 5-8 and the rest.

[ajkreider]

He still had the best figure.  Whole lotta \"2\"s that year, and his 1 was good enough.

[TGJB]

If a horse lays over the field he can spot ground loss (Big Brown etc.). You see any indication that will happen this year?

[jimbo66]

TGJB

We certainly can agree to disagree.  But \"yes\", California chrome lays over the field.  He has to ship and get a reasonable trip.  (Meaning no bad start, expecting some ground loss)

The co-second choice in this field, hoppertunity, was beat open lengths by a geared down California chrome.  I call that laying over the field.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- the discussion was taking place in figure terms.

I would be pretty surprised if someone wins this Derby with a 4w4w trip, and there will be some. Average Derby aggregate ground loss (both turns combined) for first 4 finishers has been around 4.9.