My 'Cup picks

[Upper Nile]

I\'ll stick with the TG numbers as they are instead of your \"adjusted\" figs, thank you.
Geez, Classh go out on a limb just once and either take a stand for or against the horse.
Phil

>1. what price would you need?
2.At what odds do you consider yourself being adequately \"compensated\"?
3.I\'ll stick with the TG numbers as they are instead of your \"adjusted\" figs, thank you.
Geez, Classh go out on a limb just once and either take a stand for or against the horse.<

I haven\'t made a final odds line yet. I want to see the post positions, how the track is playing, and final news. As of now...

I more or less think make Perfect Drift and MDO the most likely winners at this point. (PD a very very slight favorite). I would probably like PD more if this race wasn\'t just an afterthought for the trainer.

After that I like TMW, Dynever, and Congaree.

I don\'t think there\'s a very huge difference in probability of winning between 1-5 and then there are still other possibilities like Hold that Tiger and Pleasantly Perfect that have a chance too.

That is screaming that you need a price to participate. I wouldn\'t take less than 4-1 on PD. Maybe 6-1 on MDO. After that I want 10-1 or more on TMW, 15-1 on Dynever.

If you want me to take a stand, I\'ll say I won\'t bet Congaree unless the track is clearly playing to speed or unless the price is so crazy high I start twitching. :-)

The only insight into the race I have that isn\'t shared by everyone else on the planet is that these types of races tend to be very competitive. So with 10F not being Congaree\'s optimal distance (though it\'s possible) his stamina will be tested.

Taking stands is not the way I bet. I\'ll bet anyone if the price is right. I\'ll bet 2-3 horses in the same race if the price is right and bet none all day if no prices are right.

I have deep pockets and short arms. :-)

Upper Nile,

Please don\'t ever use any of my adjusted figures instead of TG\'s. I\'m just sharing my thoughts. Maybe there\'s one thing I say that will make sense to you or something someone will say in response that will help me. :-)

[Silver Charm]

CH wrote,

\"That is screaming that you need a price to participate. I wouldn\'t take less than 4-1 on PD. Maybe 6-1 on MDO. After that I want 10-1 or more on TMW, 15-1 on Dynever.\"

The 15-1 is the only price you have a chance of getting my friend.

>The 15-1 is the only price you have a chance of getting my friend.<

I have no big problem with that. I would prefer participating, but I like winning money more than a like just having action.
:-)

There may be better betting possibilities in the Juvenile Filly race, but I haven\'t finished looking at it.

Who do you like in the Classic etc..?

[TGJB]

I just want to tell you that everyone here loved when you said \"I and other speed figure makers.\" That was great.

Here\'s a thought-- in our analysis product, we say things like \"bet Secretariat to win at 4-1 or more\" as our play in the race, or give out an exacta box, or whatever-- you can see examples in the RBR. Yes, any horse can be bet at some price-- but you have a morning line to work with, as do we. Just give us your plays using that as a guide, meaning at the morning line odds your play would be such and such. Is that so hard?

I\'m looking forward to seeing that 40-50% profit on handle you mentioned you have been getting for a long time.

[Silver Charm]

Odds guidelines can be useful and detrimental to your fiscal health. Take Volponi last year, TG said he was a play at 40-1 or more. With 10 minutes to post I went and bet Volponi and at that point in time he was about 35-1. Did I make a bad bet?? Did I go against their advice??

How about Starine, they recommended her at 15-1 or more, she went off at 12-1 and won.
Were you smart for not taking her at their \"projected value odds\"??

This can be very tricky and often lead to emotional mistakes in wagering. If you like a horse but get off him because you didn\'t like his odds and he rolls in, you can be UPSET for several races. Similar to when you get robbed on a bad DQ.

This is definately the case on EMOTIONAL days like BC Day where you have spent a lot of time (maybe months)trying to find the right one and you bail out because you didn\'t like his odds.

TGJB,

>I just want to tell you that everyone here loved when you said \"I and other speed figure makers.\"<

I\'m sure Beyer and Ragozin would enjoy the fact that I agreed with them on the WV Derby figure too.

Last night I asked Davidowitz what he thought about that WV Derby figure. He said he had no opinion, but said \"it didn\'t matter because Soto came out of the race and ran TMW to half length and that was enough\".

He\'s got some nerve being as stupid as me.
:-)

I rarely if ever look closely at the morning line odds. I read various articles and get a rough feel for the betting. Don\'t care about the morning line.

I could never in a million years produce my 40%-50% profits making an odds line on every horse in the race and then betting whichever ones are overlays. Never said I could do that. My odds lines across the whole field are not that accurate.

What I can do is occasionally find individual horses that I believe will either be overbet and/or underbet because of trips, faulty figures, and other insights and focus on or against them - with certain prices in mind before I get involved. That is how I have done it for the last 8 years. It\'s a very limiting procedure. I only make a few dozen bets per year. But that\'s OK. I\'m not selling anything, trying to make a living, or anything else. I\'m having fun.

[TGJB]

All well and good, but if you don\'t have some form of guidelines it becomes impossible to pin anyone down for picks that can be evaluated. The only other way to go is do what the tip sheets and newspaper pickers do, and try to pick the most likely winner so you can say you had 4 winners listed.And I assume everyone here is sophisticated enough to realize that won\'t lead to a profit.

[TGJB]

 Ragozin would go into uncontrollable fits of laughter at the idea that you are a figure maker. I would very much like to be there for that conversation.

Beyer would nod his head politely and smile.

Yeah, Davidowitz-- only conversation I ever had with him was many years ago, when he called me up while I was watching a Stanley Cup final game, to yell at me about how my theories would never work. I had no idea who he was.

Gee, I guess we\'ll just have to take your word for it on all the results after the races. Again.

TGJB,

I understand where you are coming from.  

It\'s a difficult task from both of our perspectives.

You would like to see it done publicly.

I have no interest in proving anything to you and only brought it up because you were ridiculing everything I said. I made the mistake of hoping you would take me slightly more seriously if I told you the truth - that I am beating the game.  

Here\'s what makes it difficult for me.  

For example: I made a bet on Great Notion in the Kings Bishop (ouch) because by the time the end of the day rolled around I thought there was some evidence that inside/speed might be better (it looked that way the day before too).  

I saw Great Notion\'s \"Rebel\" race (way back) and thought it was much better than any speed figuermaker gave him credit for. He was hung out very wide being used extremely hard into a fast pace on the first turn, yet still hung around late in a route. I made a mental note of that ability because it looked like one of his weaker races on paper and I thought it was his best. He looked like he could be a really useful sprinter.

I watched his first sprint off a layoff and thought it was a useful prep for the King\'s Bishop.  

In the morning, I had no idea I would be making that bet. Not only that, I really did not have a firm odds line in mind. That was a tough and deep field.

I just thought he had some \"hidden ability\", a potential bias advantage, and a good chance  of moving forward. 16-1 got me to the window and I lost. 10-1 probably wouldn\'t have. Not sure of everything in between.

Key is, in the morning I had no clue because the bias was at least one reason for the bet and I didn\'t know that until later.

>Ragozin would go into uncontrollable fits of laughter at the idea that you are a figure maker. I would very much like to be there for that conversation.<

Don\'t know him and don\'t make figures anymore.

I made speed and pace figures in NY for many years in the 70s and 80s. I sold trainer information with another group in the 80s (computer stats etc..).

I gave all the pace data/beyer figures I accumulated in my computer in the 90s to the guy that sells Logic Dictates speed and pace figures, trips, bias etc... . He made speed figures that I bought and liked and expanded to pace figures after looking at my data. He is good so it saves me time.

Now what I do is look at Beyers, Logic, TG, for figures that are NOT reasonably consistent with each other. Then I go back to the race inputs for each, look at the trips, paces etc... to see if the differences are accounted for by methodology or by potential error.

If I believe someone has made an error, I make note for a potential bet.