My ticket is too Large!! Please give me some definite throwouts with reasons.

[MonmouthGuy]

Sorry. Was not a work but looked stiff and disinterested during his gallop.  

Welsch didn\'t like it either.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-archarcharch-dusts-workmate-churchill-downs

[alm]

Gotta keep an eye on this one\'s next move...he\'s a legitimate dark horse off his past performances.

[sekrah]

moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > sekrah Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > My tosses that I won\'t be using on ANY
> tickets.
> >
> > > Period.
> > >
> > >
> > > Animal Kingdom
> > > Decisive Moment
> > > Stay Thirsty
> > > Twice The Appeal  (even with Borel).
> > > Watch Me Go
> > >
> >
> > Adding Brilliant Speed, Shackelford, Toby\'s
> > Corner, Twinspired to this DO NOT USE list.
> >
> > 9 dead to me.   11 to still sort through.
> > Hopefully the post position draw will get me
> down
> > to a solid 7 or 8, with 1 or 2 I can really
> sink
> > my teeth into.
>
>
> The stated purpose of the thread was to provide
> \"throwouts with reasons.\"  This is generally more
> than just a board which serves as a vehicle to
> dodge ex post facto redboarding accusations.

Sorry.

Brilliant Speed - Can\'t see moving forward enough on dirt to be competitive with his pedigree.

Shackelford - That X in Fountain of Youth Derby really bugs me, I see another one coming here after wavering in the stretch of the Fla Derby.  Just doesn\'t look like a healthy pattern for a champion horse.  Very few horses do well in the Derby with an X-Top.

Toby\'s Corner - Pedigree issues.  BEllamy Road hasn\'t passed on a ton of stamina, but if you look at the bottom of the ticket (Mister Frisky), there\'s nothing there either.  The pattern is okay, but I was expecting a forward move already, but I think the stamina pedigree is why we haven\'t seen it yet.

Twinspired - Just too slow.   First dirt race he regressed 3 points of a double pair.   No chance to be competitive here IMO.

[sekrah]

Toss = out of my trifecta tickets & no use in my verticals.   Maybe, MAYBE, if post positions come up good for one of these I could use them in my superfectas.

mjellish, what\'s the official excuse on Shackelford\'s FOY performance?

[mjellish]

The way i read his line, he started out his 3 yr old campaign at 1 1/8th.  That\'s really tough.  But he won vs a decent field after bearing in in the stretch, and he moved forward from his two yr old top.  That\'s a nice effort.  He then came back on only 3 weeks rest and tried the FOY.  Caught the outside post and a wide trip, made a move on the 2nd turn into contention and came up empty.  Jock never persevered with him from the top of the lane down.  You can see it in the replay.  Stable then gave him 21 days until his next work.  He responded, began to train forwardly and made a nice showing in the FL Derby.  He chased/set some pretty quick fractions after going 3W on the first turn, which is very tough for any horse to do at Gulfstream.  He dusted the other speed and drew away into the second turn and was the only speed horse to hang on in the stretch, barely losing to Dialed In, the probable derby favorite, and SHA actually ran the better fig.

Now he comes into the Derby on 5 weeks rest.  He broke his maiden at Churchill and seems to be thriving down there from what I hear.  Just about everyone in the circle I run with loves him to hang on for at least a piece of this.  He\'s also had 3 races at 1 1/8th this year, which is more than the rest of these can say.  Should give him plenty of bottom, and he is training very forwardly in Louisville.

The negative is the final 3/8th of the FL Derby were slow.  Even DI\'s closing move wasn\'t all that fast of a move.  But watch the replay and see how SHA responds when DI pulls up along side him.  Watch how both of those horses put in a spurt to draw away from the rest of the field.

This is a stubborn, game horse.  He\'d be my choice for the last of speed horses to be around in the stretch.  And if he draws well and the early fractions aren\'t too brutal he could get a piece of this.  Mom was a router and has thrown all routers except for Grand Portege.  Damsire is Unbridled.

[Holybull1]

After his dismal FOY, the connections of Schackleford thought enough of him to enter the Fla. Derby rather than choosing a softer spot.  And he responded.  They seemed to know that the FOY was an abberration, which is encouraging.

I also think that it is encouraging that he is 1/2 to Lady Joanne, winner of the Alabama at 1 1/4 at 3.

I\'m starting to think he\'ll be in the 15-1 range come post time, depending on the draw. He\'s 16-1 at Olympic online right now.

[sekrah]

Shackleford will be atleast 20-1 at post.  I\'ll go with 22-1.