plasticman: Sek, 15 horse super box is only 32,760!

sekrah: plastic..

I woulda been out $32k doing that last year LOL.   Make Music For Me was a toss.  Glad I didn\'t attack supers last year and just went after the triples, I would have been in fits for a long time after that.  But I am eyeing up supers this year.  I\'m sure one of those 5 will sneak up and screw me.

BH: Check the odds of some of the recent winners before you toss anyone. Two 50/1 shots in 6 years, 5 double digit winners in 10 years.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/history/l/blderbywin.htm

Ill-bred: AK has a classic distance profile, maybe best in the field. He might be around 30-to-1 if he goes. Seems like a reckless toss. I like this horse if he works well Saturday.

sekrah: ill-bred..  Leroidesanimaux offspring show a 7 point gap between dirt and synth/turf tops and this one has not a single work over dirt, let alone no races.  On the bottom of its pedigree it has world champion show jumping genes.

This is one of the easiest tosses for me.   Not even a half-decent work Saturday could change my mind.  There\'s just no way on earth this horse could possibly be faster on dirt than he is synth/turf.  He would need a negative 2 on synth/turf before I could even begin considering him.

Ill-bred: Always A Princess (also by Leroi) took to the dirt.

Einstein66: I would have no hesitation tossing Decisive Moment (lost ground in the stretch in seven of eight races) and Watch Me Go (SLOOWW!!!!!!).

sekrah: sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My tosses that I won\'t be using on ANY tickets.
> Period.
>
>
> Animal Kingdom
> Decisive Moment
> Stay Thirsty
> Twice The Appeal  (even with Borel).
> Watch Me Go
>

Adding Brilliant Speed, Shackelford, Toby\'s Corner, Twinspired to this DO NOT USE list.

9 dead to me.   11 to still sort through.  Hopefully the post position draw will get me down to a solid 7 or 8, with 1 or 2 I can really sink my teeth into.

moosepalm: sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > My tosses that I won\'t be using on ANY tickets.
>
> > Period.
> >
> >
> > Animal Kingdom
> > Decisive Moment
> > Stay Thirsty
> > Twice The Appeal  (even with Borel).
> > Watch Me Go
> >
>
> Adding Brilliant Speed, Shackelford, Toby\'s
> Corner, Twinspired to this DO NOT USE list.
>
> 9 dead to me.   11 to still sort through.
> Hopefully the post position draw will get me down
> to a solid 7 or 8, with 1 or 2 I can really sink
> my teeth into.


The stated purpose of the thread was to provide \"throwouts with reasons.\"  This is generally more than just a board which serves as a vehicle to dodge ex post facto redboarding accusations.

mjellish: Sek, just curious.

When you say Toss do you mean toss from the Win position or from the entire Tri or Super.

I like SHAK - who I think has a great looking sheet, and I heard he tore up the track in his work today. TC seems to be a contender to me, I certainly like him more than Moe.  And I heard AK worked well today on the dirt and is a very, very nice horse.  I think you already posted your thoughts about AK, but I couldn\'t disagree more with your comment on his connections not knowing what they are doing.  These are great connections who would not run such a nice horse if they didn\'t think he had a chance to run well.  Plus he will be a price, and so will SHAK for that matter.

alm: Hmmmm...both Shack and Arch are coming in off gut busting new tops for trainers who are not particularly adept at moving horses forward in these situations.

They may be working fast, but they are fast horses.  They\'re supposed to work fast.

Both seem likely to regress.  Tosses to me...at least for horizontal bets.

miff: Al,

AAA high energy colt, rank on more than one occasion  in prior races. Makes sense that they buzz him early in works to try to take some edge off him.Could be same for Shack.

Good luck

Mike

MonmouthGuy: Agree on Shackelford.  He is becoming a now horse based on those watching at Churchill Downs.  Certainly like him much better than Santiva who barely finished his work yesterday.

number5858: It\'s too soon to do any tossing for me. Take your top 4 horses (whoever they may be) put them into the 1,2, 19, and 20 post positions, let the rain pour, and then what do you have? Totally changes your view of the race. I am more apt to toss Midnight Interlude since that SA Derby wasn\'t really a grade one race after the defection of Jaycito and Premier Pegasus, and only one start beyond a mile with no 2 yr old races. I do know that I don\'t expect Comma To The Top to be there once I see the sheets and the post position drawn as I just don\'t think this one can get the distance. I can\'t really like Dialed In in the win position at the likely odds, yet it would scare me to throw Baffert\'s and Zito\'s horses out from hitting the board. They are hall of famers for a reason, but I don\'t particularly like either in the win position at this point.

alm: Did you mean Santiva?  I can\'t find a work for him yesterday...just a gallop.