Reposting--Friedman fires smoking gun--shoots foot

[supey]

\"I have an idea, a serious one. Since Friedman doesn\'t want to argue at the moment, let me pretend to be Friedman. I will defend all of Friedman\'s positions, and I will attack all of yours. I will answer every question as best I can. No evasions. None. I will vigorously defend everything from the Russian Revolution to the Chilukki figure, from The Terror to doing sprints and routes at the same variant. This will be mad fun. I will even imitate his writing style. Now I\'m getting excited. You have to let me do this. Please. Please. Please. You and Nicely Nicely spent 21 years in Ragozin\'s office. I have never been east of Denver. This is the perfect opportunity to make all your points against what is certain to be feeble opposition. Everyone will learn from the exchange. What do you say?\"



I really think the better idea would be for you to play both the friedman role, and jerry\'s, too.


ps -- nicely

this quote thing is f\'d.

[bj]

*** Bad idea. Alydar, get some rest . bj

[TGJB]

Alydar,

For the third time:

I don\'t care what YOU  THINK  FRIEDMAN  MEANT. When you have a large customer base that is buying figures you make based on thin air I will be glad to debate you.

Someone on this website once said (paraphrasing) \"Friedman doesn\'t have to come out and fight. He\'s got you to do it for him\".

[TGJB]

Thomas,

I covered some of this in a post in response to Alydar yesterday about how I would handle a hypothetical day, but it is exactly one of the points I intend to get into once things have calmed down. That question was what I referring to in my response to Friedman when I said I could have a field day with that part alone.

[TGJB]

Classic soup-- wisecrack, wisecrack, wisecrack. No content, and of course nothing  that might require a brain, or knowledge of the subject (figure making). But hey, that\'s who you are-- a guy who throws content free crap all over other people\'s boards to gum up the works, because he has nothing to say-- sort of a virtual terrorist. Anonymously, of course-- in your e-mail to me you didn\'t even put a return adress. You\'re such a stand up guy-- how could I have ever have formed such a negative impression of Ragozin customers? Certainly no one else who reads your posts will.

Hmmm... Hope nobody does the same thing to the Rag board...

[son of supes]

TGJB wrote:

> Classic soup-- wisecrack, wisecrack, wisecrack. No content,
> and of course nothing  that might require a brain, or knowledge
> of the subject (figure making). But hey, that\'s who you are-- a
> guy who throws content free crap all over other people\'s boards
> to gum up the works, because he has nothing to say-- sort of a
> virtual terrorist. Anonymously, of course-- >
> Hmmm... Hope nobody does the same thing to the Rag board...
>
>



somebody\'s already been doing it for a looooooong time.

fortunately for the rest of us, they\'ve had the good sense to delete you.
UNfortunately, they are unable to ban.

ps

\"Anonymously, of course-- in your e-mail to me you didn\'t even put a return adress. \"

ahahahahahahahahahaha.....!!!

(no, it\'s not the spelling that\'s so funny)


by the way, you\'re not one of those bigots who forms an opinion about a whole group of people based on a couple he happens to meet, are you?

[supey]

\"I don\'t care what YOU THINK FRIEDMAN MEANT. When you have a large customer base that is buying figures you make based on thin air ....\"


don\'t tell me there\'s somebody out there who just discards the final time, and pencils in a # that he think looks good on the line.......!!

oh, wait.....you said LARGE customer base.

[TGJB]

Anybody still think I shouldn\'t be drawing any conclusions about Raggies?

[Alydar in California]

bj wrote: \"Bad idea. Alydar, get some rest.\"

Well, well, well, may wonders like this one never cease. Welcome back, bj. I always said those Canadian peacekeepers don\'t get enough credit. Please do me a favor. Stick around and be prolific. Come December, I would like nothing more than to return an old favor by naming you comeback poster of the year.

[bj]

*** I\'m always hanging around , trying to mine the occasional handicapping nugget. I stay away from the \"sheet war\" stuff now , I\'ve seen it all before . I\'m looking forward to the Spring - as I\'m getting too old for these minus 30 wind chills up here .
I can\'t wait for Saratoga - I only started going a couple of years ago , but I tell you , that track has gotten under my skin . Stay in the short line . bj

[bdhsheets]

Author: bj
Date:   02-09-03 10:57

. Stay in the short line . bj

***********************************

Short line with incompetent penn & teller = being shut out. The key at any venue is finding the tellers that can punch \'em out. At Arlington\'s Trackside Kathy will tell people in line to get their money out as she\'s cranking \'em just before post. The line moooooves, the best I\'ve ever seen.

[thomas]

JB, here's what Friedman posted: Since older horses never run that distance at Kee, our
par time for that distance is determined from our model track and interpolated backward
from the longer sprint distances at KEE. Since that number seemed so incredible, we
printed out all the 4 1/2 KEE races for the previous two years to see how the figures for
those races (very often the 1st race of the day) held up in their subsequent performances.
My interpretation: They ARE assuming a fixed relationship(interpolating for 4 1/2).  They
are probably  looking  at average par times between 5, 5 1/2, 6f and drawing  some
conclusion where 4 1/2f figures ought to fit on their (yea he meant CD) speed chart. If I
understand you correctly you're gripe and rightfully so is a variant matter. But let's
assume there was no weather factor during the day in question.  By assuming some fixed
relationship between  4 1/2f and other sprint distances  the other guys are in a postion to
give out numbers at that distance. Weather or not they're interpolation is correct  is
certainly open for debate  and  the  idea that they can  validate all this by going back and
looking at subsequent numbers of 2yo's in springtime is absurd. But you made a  comment
in one of your posts  that you don't assume fixed relationships which begs the question
how do you assign numbers in these races? Alydar's hypothetical  was how you would
derive a variant where 2 races were @ 5f for unraced 2yo's and a 6f race with established
horses. In his case you've  a bit a little bit of history for older horses @5f but where do
you go if those 5f races were @4 1/2 and that sort of data doen't exist?

[TGJB]

This is a good question, the kind we need more of. I\'ll be getting to this as part of a very long post today (I came in early to do it).