Reposting--Friedman fires smoking gun--shoots foot

[Alydar in California]

JB,

  Your first part is a wonderful answer to a question I didn\'t ask.

 Also:  

  \"The sentence about my understanding how Ragozin makes figures better than Friedman does was edited, but I think I got my point across.\"

Yes, but that wasn\'t really my point, was it?

\"Speaking of which, you neglected to ask me the most obvious question raised by the post you are responding to.\"

Do you expect me to interfere with you when you announce that you are setting a trap for Friedman? Besides, I am saving some of the good stuff for later.

[Alydar in California]

JB,

What does this mean:

\"Depending on how you look at it, we either never update speed charts, or do so every day.\"

[Silver Charm]

I saw where Came Home came up in this string so I did a little research. Came Home was given a 4 in his maiden win in July at Hollywood Park. Don\'t know what the track was like or the issue at hand that day because I was\'nt there, so I\'m not qualified to discuss anymore than what I just did.

Did see where Came Home came back to repeat that 4 in his next start, which was the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga. The 4 doesn\'t look that out of line when look at say More Than Ready and others.

Saw one other thing that I thought was interesting. Came Home won the San Vicente last year and received a 0. This number was a record and I remember I kept thinking last year that Came Home would regress which he did, but only a little. As we said before the \'Good 3YOs\' just don\'t seem to bounce like they used to.

Now we see where TGJB has told us where Kafwain was really fast in this years San Vicente. Not surprised after having watched the race (was about Harlans Holiday). The irony is that Kafwain\'s sire is Cherokee Run
the same sire as

CHILUKKI!!

The ghost is here to stay.

[TGJB]

The number in question on Came Home is his first out, which I think we had as 13.

[Alydar in California]

Silver Charm wrote: \"I saw where Came Home came up in this string so I did a little research. Came Home was given a 4 in his maiden win in July at Hollywood Park. Don\'t know what the track was like or the issue at hand that day because I was\'nt there, so I\'m not qualified to discuss anymore than what I just did.
Did see where Came Home came back to repeat that 4 in his next start, which was the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga.\"

You are wrong. Came Home\'s first TWO starts were at Hollywood Park.

[TGJB]

Alydar,

What I mean is that we don\'t assume a fixed relationship between the distances, which is one of the two functions of a speed chart I described. This is mostly true for 1 and 2 turn races, but there are others-- you have to be careful tying together the sprints at Laurel (mostly, but not entirely, because they fool around with the run-ups), or tying the 1 1/8 with 1 1/16 at Kee, for example.

[Alydar in California]

JB wrote:

\"What I mean is that we don\'t assume a fixed relationship between the distances, which is one of the two functions of a speed chart I described. This is mostly true for 1 and 2 turn races, but there are others-- you have to be careful tying together the sprints at Laurel (mostly, but not entirely, because they fool around with the run-ups), or tying the 1 1/8 with 1 1/16 at Kee, for example.\"

JB,

That\'s not an answer. You know it\'s not an answer. If you don\'t want to answer, just tell me, and I\'ll stop asking. But please stop with this nonsense.

[TGJB]

I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, seriously. That is EXACTLY what I meant by that comment-- that we use a speed chart based on averages for that track, but only as a starting point. I start out looking at every day with as few assumptions as possible about tying together unrelated events.

[Alydar in California]

JB,

There are three dirt sprints today. Two of them are at 5F and are for early 2yos, whom you don\'t use for making figures. The third is for older horses and is at 6F. How do you make a figure for the 2yo races, keeping in mind that you just said you never update the chart (except to the extent that you consider cutting races loose to be \"updating every day\")?

[Silver Charm]

Author: Alydar in California
Date:   02-07-03 13:59

Silver Charm wrote: \"I saw where Came Home came up in this string so I did a little research. Came Home was given a 4 in his maiden win in July at Hollywood Park. Don\'t know what the track was like or the issue at hand that day because I was\'nt there, so I\'m not qualified to discuss anymore than what I just did.
Did see where Came Home came back to repeat that 4 in his next start, which was the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga.\"

Alydar wrote:

You are wrong. Came Home\'s first TWO starts were at Hollywood Park.

Read what I wrote and tell me where I said in his first career start and then in his second career start. I did\'nt, I said in his maiden win and then in his next career start.

[Alydar in California]

Silver Charm wrote: \"Read what I wrote and tell me where I said in his first career start and then in his second career start. I did\'nt, I said in his maiden win and then in his next career start.\"

      If JB is going to ridicule Marc, who was 100% correct on his definitions, and then let this BS from you go by, there is a real problem here. I had questioned Came Home\'s debut number. Read what I wrote. Read what you wrote in reply. Read Came Home\'s past performances. Then keep your mouth shut.

[Silver Charm]

Alydar you wrote:

\"Did you get Came Home\'s debut number wrong? I don\'t know. Please break out your data, as Friedman did.\"

Came Home received a 13 in his debut race.

Speaking of Friedman breaking out his data, when is he going to post the 2000 Wood as he promised. Or does he have something to hide.

[TGJB]

Alydar,

IF--

There is no weather (precipitation).

There is no significant (unusual) work done on the track.

The track has a history of not changing speed under those circumstances.

There is nothing unusual about the circumstances of the two types (distances) of races (specifically, significant difference in run-ups-- also, at many tracks older horses run 5f, which gives me a history of those relationships to work with on days with no weather and work done. Be careful where you go with this one, because Friedman\'s answer was NOT an example of this).

There was no slide on the routes.

THEN I will tie the 5f races to the older sprint horses (if not, they will get boxes). I do the older sprint horses mostly against themselves, although I will look at the routes, IF the relationship has been constant, as an additional source of information if there is a choice between two ways to go. I will also look at the surrounding days IF they are both the same speed and there is no weather over the 3 days. But I will only use the routes and surrounding days as information bits, never as a reason to override a clear decision.

And when I don\'t have sufficient information, I leave boxes. The two sides of the house that I can see are white.

Go through the check list above to see if you can figure out how Friedman came up with the Chilukki figure, and how many unfounded assumptions went into it.

On a related subject, Friedman said something about the evidence indicating they got that figure \"right\", and implying we think so as well. Absolutely untrue, on both fronts. If you believe Ragozin, Chilukki ran a huge number first time out that was not within her (she didn\'t get back to it), but did not knock her out either-- she leveled off in a range a few points off her first out figure. That is much, much less likely than her either getting back to the number OR falling apart. The ones who ran behind her (and got beat 9 or more lengths at 4 1/2 furlongs) figured to go  forward over the course of the year, so no conclusions can be drawn from their up the track April 2yo numbers. Best guess, and it\'s just that, is that the figure for Chilukki should be a TG 7 3/4 (Chilukki\'s 2yo top)or higher, meaning a couple of points worse on Ragozin.

Let\'s try to get this subject tied up today, because I have a whole backlog of projectiles that Friedman has aimed at his other foot to deal with.

[Alydar in California]

Silver Charm wrote: \"Came Home was given a 4 in his maiden win in July at Hollywood Park.\"

This is false. He broke his maiden in June, won a stakes race in July, and won the Hopeful in September. You are utterly clueless.

[TGJB]

Alydar, you are kidding about the definition thing, I hope. I was the one who supplied it, and I was 100% right. None of those synonyms was a definition, and you know it-- if so, they would all have to mean exactly the same thing (2 things equal to another thing are equal to each other). There are ELEMENTS of identification in characterization, just like there are elements of characterization in pigeonholing.

I would also add that a factual error is just that, nothing more. I\'m going to stop short of CHARACTERIZING what Marc did in comparison, to try and let everyone to cool off, and give myself a chance to get some work done.