Question for TGJB, and other "No Triple Crown" Predictors

Boscar Obarra · May 22, 2008, 03:06:40 PM

How far did Secretariat bounce in his Belmont win?

Must have been awful.

big18741 · May 22, 2008, 04:26:13 PM

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You know, it occurs to me (and I don\'t want to do
> the work, maybe somebody else does)-- it would be
> interesting to know how the horses that ran a new
> top in the Derby and went back in the Preakness
> did in the Belmont, figure wise. If nobody else
> does it, maybe we\'ll do it for my Belmont
> comments.

I found 8 of them with new tops at CD-then off or x in the Preakness.Not a big deal since I already had the top 4 finishers #\'s charted for the last 16 Belmonts.Easy enough to look up the also ran\'s that made all three legs.

HARD SPUN -1.25 Derby (2.75 pt top)
0 Preakness
2.0 Belmont

MONARCHOS -0.75 Derby (1 pt top)
5.0 Preakness
3.0 Belmont

V.GALLOP 2.25 Derby (2.75 pt top)
4.0 Preakness
2.25 Belmont

W.EMBLEM -0.5 Derby (1.5 pt top)
1.0 Preakness
10.0 Belmont

CAVONNIER 4.5 Derby (2 pt top)
7.0 Preakness
DNF Belmont

WILD GALE 6.0 Derby (3 pt top)
11.75 Preakness
6.5 Belmont

SEA HERO 5.5 Derby (1.5 pt top)
10.25 Preakness
11.25 Belmont

PR.BAYOU 4.25 Derby (3.25 pt top)
6.75 Preakness
DNF Belmont

mjellish · May 22, 2008, 05:48:25 PM

You got that right covelj70!

smalltimer · May 23, 2008, 12:52:29 AM

From Steve Crist of the DRF come the following Beyer Numbers for horses who have won the first 2 legs of the TC from 1992 to 2008:

Silver Charm 115/118 = 233
Smarty Jones 107/118 = 225
Funny Cide 109/114 = 223
War Emblem 114/109 = 223
Real Quiet 107/111 = 218
Charismatic 108/107 = 215
Big Brown 109/100 = 209

SoCalMan2 · May 23, 2008, 01:00:17 AM

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From Steve Crist of the DRF come the following
> Beyer Numbers for horses who have won the first 2
> legs of the TC from 1992 to 2008:
>
> Silver Charm 115/118 = 233
> Smarty Jones 107/118 = 225
> Funny Cide 109/114 = 223
> War Emblem 114/109 = 223
> Real Quiet 107/111 = 218
> Charismatic 108/107 = 215
> Big Brown 109/100 = 209

What is the significance of this? It does not seem relevant to me.

smalltimer · May 23, 2008, 01:48:31 AM

There was no particular significance to it.
Everything you post has significance?

SoCalMan2 · May 23, 2008, 03:03:12 AM

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There was no particular significance to it.
> Everything you post has significance?

No offense was intended by my remark. I am certainly guilty of being obtuse plenty of times and am also fine with being called on the carpet about it.

In terms of your post, I cannot understand what you were trying to say by making a reference to adding together two Beyer figures for horses. I have never seen the adding of figures together regardless of who the figuremaker is -- except if somebody was trying to make an average figure (which, as has been discussed here before, has the classic ice and fire problem). Am just curious why that is a good thing to do and what a person can learn from it. I would be happy to be proven dense and to learn something valuable from it.

In terms of comparing Beyer figures to Sheet figures, I think there is no question that any comparisons of Big Brown with other first 2 out of 3 horses show real shortcomings in the Beyers compared to the Sheets. Based on my recollections (which could easily be wrong), I think Big Brown and Smarty Jones really stand heads and withers (?) above the rest in absolute terms.

alm · May 23, 2008, 06:41:51 AM

I agree with you about Dr. Fager...the \'era\' I had in mind is the one we started in...the 60\'s to 70\'s.

Rather than try to be coy about this, I believe Kelso is the most overrated champion of that period.

I loved the horse...saw him run many of the biggest races he won over all the years. Nevertheless, he usually beat nothing and he was often beaten by horses no one remembers today. Gun Bow, Beau Purple, Iron Peg for example.

alm · May 23, 2008, 06:49:24 AM

The subtext of my remark was that I believe Secretariat\'s Derby was probably a far tougher race and far faster race for him, figure wise, not that he bounced in the Belmont. Whether or not he bounced and still won easily, his time that day was influenced by the track condition. The races that day were super-quick. It was stunning. I was there.

Boscar Obarra · May 23, 2008, 01:23:39 PM

I was also there, and I wasn\'t 5 years old ;-)

My question was meant tongue in cheek.

jimbo66 · May 23, 2008, 01:32:25 PM

I think there is some significance to it. On Beyer figs, Big Brown is the slowest horse of any of the triple crown horses that have won the 1st two legs, only to lose the third leg.

It could lead credence to the fact that he isn\'t a super horse, the horses he has been beating are tomato cans and maybe a new shooter like Bernardini, I mean Casino Drive, will be very live.

Of course, as TG users, we know that Big Brown is quite a bit faster than Beyer is rating him.