What to do with the Preakness

[marcus]

i agree - the fillie winning the derby is another thing  . she didn\'t look to be in good shape to me as the camera followed her for a while after being unsaddled when leaving the oaks winners circle  as i posted last week to the dismay of some  who never did get back to say if they did or did not view the camera footage of the fillie walking back to the barn . at that time i felt the connections were \"wise\" not running her in the derby based on what the oaks race seemed to take out of her , so i would be surprised if she was fit to go in any race on 2 weeks and one day\'s rest . i could be wrong about this , and hope i am actually , but i thought i read somewhere that scat daddy  was not too chipper .

curious jimbo about the kotr 2 yo foundation appraisal at the top of the thread , he ran down to the # 3 as a 2 yo like a kimmel horse and then tailed off significantly in his next two races ( while going 02X ) before running a negative #1 in his 3 yo debut - the entire 2 yo pattern and negative number @ 3 yo imo were red flags for potential sundness issues and altough i don\'t have his sheet in front of me , i would expect he ran off his top in the SA derby and ready to run the X now . i suppose my question is,  as you invariably are an experienced handicapper and sheet reader , is what type of 2 yo foundation would you consider kotr established ...

incidentally fwiw and wagering strategies aside , i \"like\" SS to pair or move forward in the preakness and then repeat the same trend 3 weeks later in the belmont .

[magicnight]

They just posted this a few minutes ago.

[jimbo66]

Marcus,

I guess my foundation comment was pretty simplistic (maybe too much so).  What i meant is that the negative 1 didn\'t come out of nowhere.  He ran a \"3\" as a 2 year old, which means to me he established the level of being a quality \"race horse\".  From there, he didn\'t have to improve tons to get down to the level of being able to compete in the triple crown races.  

The fact that he was late to come out this year, thereby missing the chance to compete for the Derby, could hint of soundness, but I read somewhere that he had some type of virus that interupted his training.  I think you are right in that the SA Derby is probably a 2 or 3 point regression from his Hutcheson and if you believe in 0-2-x, you can expect a bounce in the Preakness.  However, he is a grandson of Valid Appeal and is likely stretching his distance limitations going either 1 1/8 or 1 3/16, so you could read the regression as distance related and maybe not pattern (what I just said could be heresy on this board, but I think that you have to factor distance abilities into the patterns a bit).  Now, having gone long for the 1st time and gotten a little leg weary, but then gotten 6 weeks rest into this race, could be get back to his top?  Maybe.  At 4-1, I would say \"no\", but at 10-1, I \"could\" say yes.

Although since I started this thread last night, I have re-watched the SA Derby and what I see is not convincing.  I am starting to think that trying to get 3-1 on Hard Spun is the bet (before I set 4-1 as my minimum).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

MO, What I like is his way of moving. I\'ve read he\'s an awkward horse, but I gotta tell you, I think he moves like the very best kind. Obviously, hes not Seattle Slew, but they called that one \"Baby Huey\" because he moved like a klutz unless he was running. Hard Spun got a look to him, a very pronounced extension of his head in an interested yet a calm way of observing which I love.

They were all in love with Pletcher, they were hoping for disaster,
with dollars they was pouring, like an avalanche coming down the mountain


MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I really don\'t think we have seen the best of Hard
> Spun. He has never taken a backward step
> figurewise and so far, he has always paired or run
> a GRADUAL new top. What I mean is that his new
> tops are not greater than 2 points.
>
>  Now if Street Sense is the one to beat and his
> best is a negative 2, and Hard Spun has a negative
> 1 1/4 under his belt, I don\'t see why Hard Spun
> can\'t run a negative 2 in the Preakness. And he
> might not even have to (to win it).

[marcus]

jimbo66 , thanks for the well thought out and well articulated post and  response - i understand what your saying about the 2 yo foundation and breeding in terms of ability and as it relates to the kotr bc number  . when looking at 2 yo patterns i\'m not very flexible and perhaps  at times should be   ...

[MO]

My only concern about this race will come down to Flying First Class - can he beat Hard Spun? Will FFC be a price?  Guidry is retiring this year.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Candidly MO, I\'m worried about FFC too. I saw Hard Spun rate in the Lanes End, though a function of that could have been the outside post. I think he can rate if they chose. I actually think he will rate and get first run.

FFC ran that unreal figure, bounced and seems to be working his way back. Its a question of whether he can go the route. I haven\'t looked at his breeding for it yet. I\'d like to hear what Silver thinks, keeping in mind he loves the Old Man. Hot steamy lathering horse love type of thing.

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My only concern about this race will come down to
> Flying First Class - can he beat Hard Spun? Will
> FFC be a price?  Guidry is retiring this year.

[Flighted Iron]

Jimbo,

  I like your analysis of Curlin.I think he\'s going to be spent and tire in the
lane.Hard Spun is a tough call.I\'m curious to see the ride.If he cannot rate,He\'ll have to drag Lukas\'s Flying First Class for at least 7/8\'s to a mile
at what I see to be a very brisk pace.

  I read 2 interesting articles on TAP.The first article is from NYRA backstretch notes.TAP has only 1 starter in Preakness history.A third place
finish in 2000.The second article was regarding King Of The Roxy in the
Daily Racing Form.They seem to like this horse off his ideal rest,short field,and his SA Derby effort.TAP is very cautious when he stated\"the horse
needs to run the race of his life\".I believe KOTR is capable of firing a big
shot if Johnny V positions this horse properly.


  I wrote sometime ago regarding\"Gut Sense For Street Sense\".Borel didn\'t
convince me after the BG,but he apparently shouted \"see right there,he\'s
just galloping\"during the rerun of the Derby.I\'m sold right there!Country
man and who cares if he reads or not.This man is hard core honest and a stone
race rider.I like SS winning right back with KOTR getting passed in deep stretch
to finish second.Big exacta and reverse for half.

[Flighted Iron]

Mac,

  Thanks for the heads up on this DRF post.

[Flighted Iron]

Pardon me Magignight for calling you Mac.

[Flighted Iron]

Jimbo,

  Magicnight brought interesting news to light shortly after I responded to
your article.TAP is considering running CQ.This makes things a bit cloudy.
My claim of SS over KOTR is on hold until confirmation of CQ\'s status.

[miff]

Circular Quay confirmed for Preakness
By DAVID GRENING - Posted 11:20 am
 
Circular Quay, the sixth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, will start in Saturday\'s $1 million Preakness, trainer Todd Pletcher confirmed on Tuesday morning.



David,

Get even!!


Mike

[Flighted Iron]

Thanks for the confirmation.

[magicnight]

Opinions on possible bounces aside, doesn\'t this mean that there are now 5 - or 6 - horses in this field that could conceivably win this if they pair their top?

Some of these six would need a pair-up and some regression from any or all of the other five, depending.

But, does this make the race more bettable? Or less? Personally, I think it makes me unlikely to consider using Roxy or FFC in the top spot, cause it seems a stretch to think that the four fastest from the Derby running here will ALL regress, even if any of the four look like decent bounce candidates.

I\'m leaning towards a narrow exacta play, using one of the four fast Derby runners - the one I think is least likely to regress - over ..... (not sure yet).

This is starting to look like a heckuva Preakness!