Street Sense BC Question?

[Ill-bred]

I dunno.

Here\'s what I think I observed. A strong rail bias for part of the week leading up to BC day. A strong rail bias in the early races on the card, fading as the day goes on.

[fkach]

Supposedly they did some work on the track prior to the Classic where Bernardini and Invasor both raced outside.

My view is that both extremes are wrong. There are some people that think there was a huge inside bias because of all the 1 post winners etc... and others that think there was no bias because a few horses ran well outside and the figures didn\'t suggest an extreme bias.

I think the rail was the best place to be (over and above ground loss), but the bias wasn\'t strong enough to dictate the results (like on many days this winter on the Inner Dirt at Aqu). It was only strong enough to influence results between horses of similar ability.

[miff]

Judging a rail bias off tops?? Why. A favorable path does not necessarily make a horse run faster than his norm. A path(rail in this case) returning better energy than other paths is a biased path and has little to do with producing tops, although it might.

If 9 horses on a card wire from post one and there are no tops, that means there was no inside speed bias, BRILLIANT!!


Mike

[Silver Charm]

>Supposedly they did some work on the track prior to the Classic where Bernardini and Invasor both raced outside.

This is my opinion on what I saw. There were several notable experts who did not see any bias and several who did. This is just my opinion.

The racings prior to the BC at CD (Thurs & Fri) had an extreme anti-rail bias. Jockey\'s were steering horses to the outside of the track down the stretch and finishing each race in about the 5 or 6 path. Very similar to what we are seeing at Keeneland now. What they did on the backstretch I can not say because I did not have a head-on view.

So what happened. I figure Track Maintanance tried to even things out. They either made the rail better or the outside worse. Whichever way it was they overcooked the focus of their maintenance. Jockey\'s who had been watching and thinking on Fri before BC they would not go anywhere near the rail saw an opportunity to now try and take the shortest distance between two points and race on a more favorable part of the track.

If Track Maintenance thinks they made the outside worse much worse, trying to even it out mid-day may make sense.

[fkach]

This issue would get us into a much more complicated conversation in that whoever is making the speed figures may or may not be interpreting the results the same way as other handicappers. That \"could\" impact the figures assigned to the winners and others.

IMO, by definition, a favorable path bias will cause those that race on it  to run faster than they would have on the more neutral paths that day all else being equal (and vice versa). That would generally lead to some tops assuming a few of the winners performed near their peak form and raced on the favorable path.

However, we will get into all sorts of definitional and subjective issues if we discuss this further.

IMO, horses that raced on the rail on BC day performed better than those in the outside paths based on my view of their \"relative abilities\" going in and based on my view of how they performed coming out of those races. That analysis is not limited just to speed figures because of my first point.

[fkach]

I agree with you 100%.  

I think track maintenance tried to correct the anti-rail track bias that existed in the days leading up to the BC races and over did it a bit.

[MO]

I was also at CD on BC day. The rail was good, but it was also the shortest path to the wire. So I would factor that into my handicappping. I wouldn\'t call it a bias.

That said, I still take a rather old fashioned approach to handicapping this race. It happens only once a year, and should be treated as such.

The dual qualifier rule is where I start. SS is the highweight. I start by looking for ways to beat him. I only look at the dual qualifiers. The rest I throw out. It hasn\'t cost me that much. In fact, after betting the Derby since 1986, I show a huge flat bet profit on my selections. And some of my beats ran a second (49er, Easy Goer, Tejano Run-the buzzer victim).

There are some patterns other than speed figures that I use as part of my criteria for a  Derby winner: must \"win\" a major 2 yo race. Must \"win\" a major 3 yo prep race. Must be on the board in his last prep.

There are also some other handicapping rules I apply: never bet the horses in the aux gate. No horse has won since the 1800s witout a 2yo race. No BC JUV winner has ever won the Derby.

Then I look at the TG figs and patterns.

Another given is that some rules are bound to be broken, some sooner than later.

Strike the Gold, Thunder Gulch, Sunday Silence come to mind. I think Street Sense will join them this year and become the first BC JUV winner to win the Derby. There\'s so much to like here, beginning with the trainer. Same pattern: Keenland poly race to CD dirt top. Has a win over the track. Will be a square price. Looking forward to the TG sheets.