KY Derby Futures Bets -- Pool 1 -- Post Mortem

[imallin]

not trying to belittle in any way, just wanted to bring up a few points i felt were something everyone could consider.

Sure, you\'re correct, if your horse runs off the screen in his next prep, your bet at 44-1 is going to look ingenius no doubt. I came up with 25-1 vs 44-1 because i feel that you need almost double the odds NOW than you would be getting on Derby day just to make it an even-steven swap. 44-1 now = 25-1 on Derby Day IMO.

If you can find a way to get into the gate at 8-1, you made a decent bet.

Remember, the Derby is also going to have 20 starters, which means that 8-1 is almost the favorite...i believe that Barbaro was a close 2nd choice in the wagering at 6-1.

You can never really go wrong risking 1 dollar to win 44 dollars on anything in horseracing, i just wanted to bring up a few points about your wager. Hopefully you didn\'t feel i was picking on you.

[SoCalMan2]

Imallin,

In my post, in the first part, I was talking to Miff, not you.  I thought Miff was being critical of you and I was actually coming to your defense.
 

CHuckes, I have a lengthy response to your thoughts on my pick if you are interested, but I will spare the board.  If you want it, let me know and I will see if I can figure out how to send it throught he person to person messages.

SCM2

[imallin]

Not sure...i thought my post was informative, correct and spot on...thats why it didn\'t even dawn on me that someone might criticize.

[SoCalMan2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote In Part:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In terms of substanstive comment, Imallin, you
> raise some good points, but, if Scat Daddy makes
> it to the Derby and goes off at 8-1 instead of
> 25-1, then the premium will look at lot more
> compensatory of the risk I took than it does in
> your view.  
>
> Part of my reasoning in making the play is that
> Scat Daddy had very good foundation, but a lot of
> people got off him because of two bad races (both
> with very good reasons to be throw out from a
> handicapping perspective).  If he runs a superb
> prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop
> back on him and he will look a lot better than a
> 25-1 shot.  I am just trying to catch him when
> everybody else is off him. I do agree with you
> that if he goes off at 25-1 in the Derby, then,
> even if he wins, my bet does not look so good.
> The premium is not enough.  But, in that scenario,
> my analysis will have been wrong anyway and I
> suffer the consequences.


Dear Chickles,

I see in another thread that my Scat Daddy future has piqued your interest.

Looks to me like I was talking about your ilk when I said in this thread -- \"If he runs a superb prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop back on him.\"

Let me give your ilk a little handicapping lesson gratis -- the reason the sheets are the sheets is that they give you the horse\'s ENTIRE career in one GRAPH.  You are supposed to base your analysis on the entire graph, not just the horse\'s last race.  When I used to go to Friedman\'s seminars, he used to always stress not to put too much weight on one number.  He explained that the crowd always does this, but a sophisticated sheet handicapper should not and in fact should try to take advantage of the crowd when they do this.

Just for you, I can condense this lesson down to two words -- Sinister Minister.

Guys like you who let one race change your view from a horse being bettable at 300-1 versus being a good deal at 44-1 are a sheetplayers dream and just the kind we want in the pools.  

Unfortunately, I am concerned about SC\'s FOY performance because I am worried that he may have shot his wad a bit too soon and actually hurt his Derby chances rather than helped them.  The FOY has a strong recent history of chewing up and spitting out good 3 yos.  I am hoping that this is not the case with SC, but I actually like his chances less now than I did before the FOY.  I would have much preferred a race that just came back to his 2 yo top rather than a potential big jump up. I am actually hoping that his number does not come out too big.  

Does anybody know if he carried the 120 or 122?  Based on the conditions of the FOY, depending on how one reads the conditions, the issue would seem to hinge on what 4th place money was in the Breeders Cup.  If it was $75k or greater, he maybe should have been assigned 122, if it was less, then in all cases he would have been eligible to carry 120.  Those 2 lbs could be half a point.  In the old days, they use to have a place in the chart for \"corrected weights\" just to clarify issues like this.  Kudos to Elkurzhal who spotted this.  I tried to check the DRF on this, but their site was down for maintenance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I wanna talk about the \"Ilk\". I was there at Hallandale Saturday and I was optimistic, because there were a lot of attractive young women there in sexy outfits betting money. I call it the \"easy money\" and theres no way a 24 year old woman can factor things as thoroughly as someone thats been involved in the minutia of the game for years. But sometimes, the non thinking ilk have an advantage. Sometimes they can make automatic bets and Fountain of Youth day was just such a day. The Ilk bet on Pletcher all day and they cashed on Pletcher all day. His horses ran well. Of course, they ran well on juice but the Ilk cashed and the Ilk beat me like a drum.

The problem for the Ilk though is that down the line the races will not be as automatic. More variables will come into play. Chief among those variables being the other trainers that utilize horsemanship will have their steeds poised for a top effort on the biggest day. The implication being of course that the juice helps, but it helps less when the others are ready to fire their best shot. And that surmises that the juice will be available on the big day.

Scat Daddy has a tall order. You can\'t dissuade the ilk from betting upon Pletcher or Scat, but you can take advantage of their one dimensional thinking. Some ilk cashed Saturday, other ilk have prospective wagers, vapor hopes and perhaps seek accolades far too early.

On the big day, Beat Pletcher like a drum and the Ilk too!

CtC

[Ill-bred]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Unfortunately, I am concerned about SC\'s FOY
> performance because I am worried that he may have
> shot his wad a bit too soon and actually hurt his
> Derby chances rather than helped them.  The FOY
> has a strong recent history of chewing up and
> spitting out good 3 yos.  I am hoping that this is
> not the case with SC, but I actually like his
> chances less now than I did before the FOY.  I
> would have much preferred a race that just came
> back to his 2 yo top rather than a potential big
> jump up. I am actually hoping that his number does
> not come out too big.  
>

They crawled home in this race. They came home in 25-2 and then 13-4. I don\'t think this race will earn a very big #, although Scat Daddy did have a wide trip.

[fkach]

I don\'t understand your thinking on Scat Daddy. This is a very easy horse for me to read.

He flashed some early talent.

He strongly hinted of better things to come in the Champagne where he earned a good figure closing down a quality field while losing a lot of ground despite a crawling pace.  

He had no chance in the BC Juvenile where he raced relatively close to a fast pace while far outside on a day when the inside seemed to be the place to be. A quick glance at the charts shows how the horses racing near the pace did in that race.

He came back with a reasonable prep. IMO it was ideal, if you were/are trying to get a horse to peak in the Derby.

Now, he apparently moved forward a bit (pending the TG figure) second off the layoff. That\'s exactly what you would want to see (unless he went too far).

Obviously there are questions about his ability to stay 10F and you can\'t be sure he will continue developing between now and May. However, those are legitimate questions about most of the 3YOs at this time of year.

Personally, I congratulate anyone that was wise enough to get a futures bet in on him prior to the FOY victory no matter what happens from here.  There was a lot of value in understanding the true quality of his Champagne and his legitimate excuse in the BC Juvenile. I understood both, but didn\'t pull the trigger on any futures bets.

[miff]

Beyer\'s:

King of the Roxy 103( one turn though) deserves a shot at stretching out, no, Barry?

Great Hunter 101 and wide to boot.

Scat Daddy 95, wide, but they came back to him the last eight in a very slow split. Will get a good loaded ground fig.Solid efforts by Stormello and Adore the Gold.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Theres no crying in baseball and theres no celebrating a future bet at even 1000-1 until the bet is cashed. Its like celebrating your stock investment before you sell and take the profit. Its premature is all.

Scat did some things in the Fountain of Youth to move him up, but theres a host of factors that are still in the mix. He\'s going to have to overcome a tried and true negative profile. I\'m skeptical, but in the unlikely event someone cashes a future bet upon him in the Derby, I\'ll be the first to say congrats you\'ve overcame a tremendous bias and broke the mold. He\'s still very much a longshot to win the Derby. Despite sufficient earnings, I\'m guessing he won\'t start in it. I think Pletcher bumped him too much Saturday, but the actual speed of the race is still under review.

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t understand your thinking on Scat Daddy.
> This is a very easy horse for me to read.
>
> He flashed some early talent.
>
> He strongly hinted of better things to come in the
> Champagne where he earned a good figure closing
> down a quality field while losing a lot of ground
> despite a crawling pace.  
>
> He had no chance in the BC Juvenile where he raced
> relatively close to a fast pace while far outside
> on a day when the inside seemed to be the place to
> be. A quick glance at the charts shows how the
> horses racing near the pace did in that race.
>
> He came back with a reasonable prep. IMO it was
> ideal, if you were/are trying to get a horse to
> peak in the Derby.
>
> Now, he apparently moved forward a bit (pending
> the TG figure) second off the layoff. That\'s
> exactly what you would want to see (unless he went
> too far).
>
> Obviously there are questions about his ability to
> stay 10F and you can\'t be sure he will continue
> developing between now and May. However, those are
> legitimate questions about most of the 3YOs at
> this time of year.
>
> Personally, I congratulate anyone that was wise
> enough to get a futures bet in on him prior to the
> FOY victory no matter what happens from here.
> There was a lot of value in understanding the true
> quality of his Champagne and his legitimate excuse
> in the BC Juvenile. I understood both, but didn\'t
> pull the trigger on any futures bets.

[Barry Irwin]

King of the Roxy is forcing us to stretch him out. We planned to stick with one turn, but after a race like he ran on Saturday, we at least have to try him once.

[marcus]

imo - he sure had a big back 2 yo number and it looked like he ran another one during his 3 yo debut in the Hutchenson - if right , would seem to have enormous potential ...

[Silver Charm]

There are some good Big Name seven furlong and mile races later such as the Kings Bishop and Jerome. You already know he can handle a mile at Belmont Park.

Opportunities like the old Jim Beam at Turfway and the Arkansas Derby with $500,000-$750,000 purses come along once. You owe it to the horse and to yourselves to take your best shot.