Cleaning up the Racing Industry: Today's - "Who's HOT and who's NOT"

[Boscar Obarra]

kev wrote:

> If KY is not hard on these trainers, then who are the hot jump
> up trainers in KY??? Seems like to me everyone I hear is from
> NY or Cail.? or down south in LA.

 All of them?


 Couldn\'t resist.

[kev]

Like I said name them??? Cause we all can name the so-called NY juicers and so/cal ones.

[TGJB]

CH-- for the third or fourth time:

You are WAY underestimating the level of analysis I am putting into this. I used winning percentages because that\'s what the lay person understands, but we have set up a function here that lets me pull all a trainer\'s starters for any time period I want, and look at the sheets on all the horses. I do this to keep me from making the kind of mistake I made in having clients buy two horses from the Dutrows.

The move-up pattern is easiest to see with those who get lots of horses from others, or lose them to others-- Dutrow, Amoss, Norman, Mullins, Lake, Vaders, Pino, Mitchell, etc. It\'s also easy to see with another group, when all their horses with established tops get faster at the same time-- Frankel, McLaughlin, Schettino for a while last summer, etc. I do NOT make decisions about this kind of thing based on small, statistically insignificant samplings-- but when I see an unusual move-up from a new face, I keep an eye on it.

What I also do, and what several others within the industry who are trying to stop the problem do (I\'m talking organizations like TOBA), is to try and see if there are cause and effect relationships. It became clear very quickly that Allday was the vet for many of the above, as well as for Byrne when he won the 15 straight at CD and had the two 2yo champs the same year, as well as Paulson for a long time (don\'t know if he still is, but some of their trainers have done a whole lot better while training for them than before or after), as well as Stronach (he went there with Byrne, was stable manager there for a while, I don\'t know about now). One of Allday\'s more endearing traits is his inability to keep his mout shut-- he has directly told THREE different people I know that he is moving horses up, and that he developed use of EPO while working for Paulson.

So when I hear that a trainer who doesn\'t claim or lose horses also is using Allday, I also draw certain conclusions. For example, Allday is as far as I know still working for Pletcher-- and my guess is that if I went back a couple of years and started looking at sheets, I could pinpoint pretty closely when he started.

Does this mean that these guys are doing something illegal, or are even using drugs? Not necessarily. Does it mean that they have something that instantly moves horses up? Yes.

By the way, Kev-- I agree that Kentucky is not one of the worst offending states in this regard, the reason being what I said yesterday, that the drugs permitted there but not elsewhere are not performance enhancers. Having said that, Amoss and Romans come to mind as move-up trainers, and there are others who I\'m not sure about since I don\'t watch the circuit year round that closely.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

One of Allday\'s more endearing
> traits is his inability to keep his mout shut-- he has directly
> told THREE different people I know that he is moving horses up,
> and that he developed use of EPO while working for Paulson.

This is hearsay. \"He said, she said\". To be admissable in court the three individuals would have to come forward and testify what they heard Allday say.

If it\'s true, its pretty damning stuff, still the statement has to be identified with a positive in the horse and if I remember right EPO is naturally occurring and they have to look for an \"indicator\" to determine if its been administered.

If you can\'t discuss the elusive quality of proof and the difficulties of evidence in a humourous but intelligent way, you might as well shelve discussing it at all.

CtC

TGJB,

I think it would be better if we just drop the subject because we probably agree about 95% or more of everything. I think we are more or less miscommunicating or have a different view on how to go about dealing with the issue.

1. I would prefer that we identify all the move up trainers so we can use that information profitably in our handicapping.

2. I would prefer that the industry implements changes (all your ideas are great) to eliminate illegal drugs and other performance enhancers. They should probably put some limitations on a lot of the stuff that\'s legal too.

3. I would prefer that we acknowledge that not all trainers, assistants, vets, and other handlers have equal ability and resources. Therefore, connection changes can account for changes in a horse\'s speed figures/form.

4. I would prefer that we acknowledge that the sharp changes in results a barn sometimes gets in terms of win percentage and/or speed figures could be related personal problems among key personnel, injuries/recoveries, sickness in the barn/recovery, synchronized form cycles for the entire barn, pointing for specific meets, random runs of good or bad luck etc...

Obviously number #1 is the most important thing for handicappers and #2 is the most important for the industry.

#3 and #4 just helps \"some of us\" avoid the presumption of guilt (just in case the consensus is wrong) and the tendency to explain every single form change in terms of drugs/illegal activities etc...

IMHO, #3 and #4 are both at work even in the barns you and I are very suspicious of. It\'s not all or nothing.



Post Edited (03-03-05 19:42)

[Trigger]

You folks have made my day and given me a great chuckle. I went to Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine with \"White Mercedes\" or as we knew him Steve \"Know it Allday\". He could not keep is mouth shut at that time either. I was a practicing Equine Veterinarian for 17 years and since change vocations. One of my new current clients in the High Technology Industry has become a big player in the TB Racing Industry........it made me wonder what happened to good ole Steve. I did a google search and came up with your comments. Steve was a little above average academically in Vet School but very driven and had a big ego. You do not have to be an A+ student to be successful at anything and being driven is a good thing. Too bad Steve funneled that effort to being a \"syringe for hire\" instead of something you did not have to constantly look over your shoulder. I am not \"warm and fuzzy\" about horses but do feel the \"good ones\" should be taken care of properly and admired  so it is so hard to breed, raise and train one to be successful and not fall to injury or death. Others that are not so good have a place either in another dicipline, a pet or as dog food. I guess anytime a lot of money is involved the industry is always very vunerable to methods less than honest. We see the same types of \"things\" in the \"show\" horse industry. I always thought our practice was very leading edge in our knowledge and methods of practrice/treatment. However, I had trainers ask me about pharmaceuticals I never heard of or could even find in the literature.............nor did I care to know more.

I think I am better off that ole Steve and I can sleep at nite.

Happy Trails!

[Delmar Deb]

Found it...for JohnTChance...it was Texas A&M per the poster...

Re: Evidence at Trial, the Usual Suspects
Posted by: Trigger (IP Logged)
Date: March 17, 2005 05:51PM


You folks have made my day and given me a great chuckle. I went to Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine with \"White Mercedes\" or as we knew him Steve \"Know it Allday\". He could not keep is mouth shut at that time either. I was a practicing Equine Veterinarian for 17 years and since change vocations. One of my new current clients in the High Technology Industry has become a big player in the TB Racing Industry........it made me wonder what happened to good ole Steve. I did a google search and came up with your comments. Steve was a little above average academically in Vet School but very driven and had a big ego. You do not have to be an A+ student to be successful at anything and being driven is a good thing. Too bad Steve funneled that effort to being a \"syringe for hire\" instead of something you did not have to constantly look over your shoulder. I am not \"warm and fuzzy\" about horses but do feel the \"good ones\" should be taken care of properly and admired so it is so hard to breed, raise and train one to be successful and not fall to injury or death. Others that are not so good have a place either in another dicipline, a pet or as dog food. I guess anytime a lot of money is involved the industry is always very vunerable to methods less than honest. We see the same types of \"things\" in the \"show\" horse industry. I always thought our practice was very leading edge in our knowledge and methods of practrice/treatment. However, I had trainers ask me about pharmaceuticals I never heard of or could even find in the literature.............nor did I care to know more.

I think I am better off that ole Steve and I can sleep at nite.

Happy Trails!