Cleaning up the Racing Industry: Today's - "Who's HOT and who's NOT"

[richiebee]

Ctc:

 So I guess we\'re back to Allday. I guess a fun experiment would be to let Allday treat runners from the barns of Leo O\'Brien, Gary  Sciacca, Scott Schwartz and Richard DeStasio(all of whom saddled more than 100 NYRA runners in 2004 with less than a 5% strike rate). These trainers would all of a sudden become winners?

There have been exactly 500 races run on the Inner Tube so far this winter. The top 10 trainers have won 185 of these races (37%). Trainers 11- 20 have accounted for another 75 races (15%).

Would Allday help, lets say, a Linda Rice (42 starts, 3 wins) who insists on using Oscar Gomez (96 starts, 5 wins), as if he were the leading rider at the meet?

Would Allday help, lets say, a Dom Schettino (39 starts, 1 win) who threw Galloping Grocer to the wolves in his first start off a layoff when many easier spots were available?

Would Allday be able to do anything for Mark Hennig (47 starts, 3 wins) who has insisted on riding Pablo Fragoso (266 mounts, 26 wins)? Fragoso HATES to bust horses out of the gate, which, on many days on the Inner, is the short path to the winners circle.

If there was a point to all of the above (thank God real racing returns tomorrow)its  that some of these trainers give their animals about the same chance to win that Sonny Corleone had of driving away from the toll plaza. There\'s just nothing that Allday or anyone else could do for them, and it makes it that much easier for the top 10- 20 trainers to win.

[TGJB]

Uh, Richie-- don\'t know if you remember, but there was a stretch of about 4 months last year where all Scettino\'s runners were getting blasted on the tote, and running their eyeballs out. Then he went cold-- think he just became a worse trainer overnight?

The reason that some trainers use the riders they do is because they don\'t have the stock to attract the better riders-- agents are handicappers, and want to line up with the stronger barns.

It was amazing how much better the Dutrow brothers got right after their father died, like, overnight. In fact, it happened so fast I got caught in the switches-- we bought two horses from them with good numbers that went to Elliot Walden, and then pretty much fell apart physically (and remember, these were horses that passed the vet). About a year later, in desperation, the owner sent one back to Dutrow, and it reeled off two or three wins. Heckuva trainer.

Pino is another one. The guy won at about 10% for a while, then at about 35% for about a year, then became a bad trainer for about 6 months, like 5%. Then he became a good trainer again, and last I looked was winning at about 40%. Heckuva trainer.

You guys, especially CH, are missing the point. If we were making decisions about a horse, the fact that one horse could move up, or that there is subjectivity involved in measuring performance, would be significant. But we are talking about large groups of horses, over large periods of time. Anybody who uses any figures can see that Dutrow\'s horses ran differently at Saratoga than at the following Belmont meet, that Zito\'s horses, for two years, ran out of their minds in Kentucky. And yes, I would love to have this conversation in a court of law-- I can\'t tell you what they are using or how, but there is no doubt at all that a significant number of trainers are moving horses up abruptly, a lot.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Saddle,

This might explain it better and I\'ll use Saratoga 2003 Stats as the example. Its based on the winners that shipped in versus the total horses that raced(from the shipping state that shipped in):

In State NY : Starters 1924, Winners 227 12%

Shippers in to Saratoga for 2003

Kentucky   -151 Starters 24 Winners 16%
New Jersey -108 Starters 12 Winners 11%
Florida    -67 Starters 10 Winners 15%
Virginia   -71 Starters 9 Winners 13%
Delaware   -87 Starters 9 winners 10%
S Cal      -31 Starters 6 winners 19%

The rest were not meaningful with a total of 18 Winners from all other states.

So what this is saying to me is that Horses that come from KY win at the same rate as any other state. They do not seem to suffer shipping in from the liberal KY Laws as was being discussed. So Juicing seemed to be on an even playing field that year.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yeah, Nicky in Kentucky has been a bit of a phenomena. Whatever he\'s figured out there has been effective.

There could be symbiotic relationships with medicines they are taking advantage of I suppose.

I just don\'t believe that anyone following this game (especially from a figure perspective) can look at a five year scenario where so many of the top trainers have changed positions, where race enhancers have been identified and where performance figures have suddenly gone to dizzying levels, where certain \"jump up\" vets are identified with \"jump up\" trainers and not realize that things are not all about dominance in their field.

what is going on here?

I liked Dick Dutrow. So I kind of like his sons, but they are getting absurd results and I dont think they dominated their dad in any manner.

I\'d like to see ROI figures for those KY shippers because the pool of horses that shipped may be way above average in ability than the general horse population. That would account for a decent win percentage but not tell you whether the horses were running back to their figures.

[NoCarolinaTony]

This Bris Book Track Stats New York 2004   (for 2003) did have Roi\'s. NY State ROI\'s $-0.65, KY ROI was $-0.54, NJ $-1.00, FL $+0.24, SoCal$+1.35.

NC Tony

[asfufh]

Round and around we go.
On move-up trainers, see page 104 and 105 of Andy Beyer\'s \"Picking Winners\" where he talks about certain successful(super?)trainers moving up horses \"mysteriously and unpredictably by 5 or 10 lengths\" in the 1973-74 Maryland circuit.

[JohnTChance]

Saddlecloth wrote:

> On sunday in the first, he wheeled a horse back after a win in three days. Now there was no figure for the thursday race, but he went from 12,5 to 25k. The main horse in the race was Smokieisabandit, who had just paired tops around 0(neg). Crafty Player for Dutrow had run a 6 three times last year, as late as dec 28th. Watching the race was amazing, as crafty player showed speed that we had never seen before from him, and drew off with ease. My guess is Smoke regressed a bit, probably in the 2 area, and that Craft Player jumped from 6 to maybe 0, maybe lower? I am a novice on the figures so maybe someone can help me out. Basically this is the type of sudden move up that has lots of people scratching their head.

Saddlecloth,

One of the owners of that horse was HOT SHOT COMMODITIES BROKER. Maybe HOT SHOT COMMODITIES BROKER sent his
HARNESS GUYS, his potent vets from the Meadowlands in Jersey, to (as Springsteen has said) \"do a lil favor for him.\"

Note that this is my best guess opinion only. For entertainment purposes only. Because I\'m unable to supply video proof.

JohnTChance

[TGJB]

John, this is important stuff-- WHAT SONG IS THE QUOTE FROM? I\'ve seen Bruce live 35-40 times, don\'t recognize it-- my first thought was \"Meeting Across The River\", but it ain\'t.

[JohnTChance]

Jerry,

It\'s from Bruce\'s \"Atlantic City.\" One part goes something like:

\"Down here it\'s just winners and losers and don\'t get caught on the wrong side of that line...\"

\"I\'m tired of coming out on the losing end... so tonight I met this guy and I\'m gonna
DO A LITTLE FAVOR FOR HIM...\"

Again, for entertainment purposes only.

JohnTChance

[TGJB]

Absolutely correct. I\'m going to go kill myself, see you later.

TGJB,

I play poker. I ran really hot for six months. Then I couldn\'t get myself arrested for the next 2 months. This week I\'m killing them again.

Was I good, then terrible, and now good again?

Obviously not.

The reality is that for 6 months I was feeling great and running great. Then my father got very sick. I was having bad stomach problems. I wasn\'t sleeping well and had some bad luck. This week I feel great.  

My life is full of great and terrible meets betting horses.

There is a high variance in results among relatively low percentage things like winning poker hands or horse races. Aside from that normal randomness, crap happens in life that impacts results.  
 
IMO, that goes double for training horses because there are events and trainer intentions that can dictate both positive and poor results for long stretches of time over and above the randomness of the performances of the horses.  

To me it shouldn\'t matter if we all agree about 9 out of 10 of the \"suspect\" trainers and can make long lists of suspect horses, suspect meets, wildly improving figures etc...

It\'s the 1 we might disagree about that is the reason I\'ve been such a pain in the butt about this. I think there is \"at least one\" trainer who has been getting bashed regularly that isn\'t doing anything illegal. He\'s just got great stock, great help, great resources and is just that darn good. That\'s why his horses win so often and improve so much when he gets them.

I\'ll drop it.



Post Edited (03-02-05 20:32)

[kev]

This from 1996 stats.
KY coming into Sar: 124 starts 23 wins=19% for a +0.45 ROI, CD had 23% winners coming into Sar.... BEL: KY shippers won at 17% for a -0.50 ROI and CD won 20%, AQU: KY won at 21% for a +0.95 ROI. Looking over the trainer stats for the 95-96 year.Trainers win % with a good amount of starters: J.Dowd 24%, R.Ellis 28%, Bobby Frankel 21%, F.Miller 27%, M. Moran 24%, W.Mott 24%, J.Parisella 23%, E.Perdue 26%, B.Perkins sr. 33% wow, E.Weymouth 26%...T.Pletcher 16% with 204 starters. T.Amoss 24%, I guess this is the hot Cole Norman it says Norman M C 12%, T.Ritchey 23%, W.Dollase 25%, D.W.Lukas 21%, B.Baffert 22%, D.Hofmans 23%, R.Mandella 22%, D.O\'neil 9% with 80 starts, M.Mitchell 24%

[kev]

If KY is not hard on these trainers, then who are the hot jump up trainers in KY??? Seems like to me everyone I hear is from NY or Cail.? or down south in LA.

[kev]

Yes, but RD bought this hoss for 50K and ran him right back in 50 and got his butt kick, the horse had been running for higher tags before in his life. That is one thing I see in RD horses showing early speed that they hav\'nt showed before.