Patterns going into the Preakness

[Uncle Buck]

I feel it would be foolish to dismiss Giacomo in this spot. What if he turns into Charismatic and wins for fun? Could happen for sure. I mean he had a slowly progressive line heading into the Derby, he ran a new top, now he has a full field again which will most likely boost the pace factor up front, and we already know this horse is solid, no chinks in his armor and can run all day. I know all you guys like your horses \"FAST\" but I would not overlook a solid animal with an above average jockey and trainer guiding him through his journey. If Giacomo goes off at 6-1 or better, I would not hesitate to drop a dime on him to Win and Place.

I have a strong opinion that it will be the same from the Derby, also runnig 1-2 in Baltimore. If High Limit looks peppy on-track, I\'d play him in the exacta too. And after the exacta pays $65 and change - everyone will say \"Dammit! Why didn\'t I just at least play the Jocko and CA as a savor?\"

Don;t get caught being the one saying Dammit!

HP,

>I saw the race, and with my incredible powers of race observation, including the hand motions of the jockeys, the separation of the pack, and the striding motion of each hoof, I noticed he was DEAD as a doornail, and it wasn\'t just in the last eighth either.<

LOL.

So incredible that most people can see these things after a few weeks. It took me a few years. :-)

He hung like a chandelier and you didn\'t need to look at the clock to know that.



Post Edited (05-13-05 18:49)

[spa]

Alex had a very tough trip....If you saw the overhead view, it would make you sick. He was foulded going into the first turn by a horse that had no reason to leave the rail. Alex bounced off about 6 horses that he was passing. Rose aimed him time after time at a tiny hole and Alex delivered the goods. More than once, he figured to go down. Was he beat-up? You bet !!! Did he bounce...I think so. Will he win the next one? Yes, by 5.......

Between all the tough trips and the impact of pace I think it\'s very difficult to translate these performances into reasonably accurate numbers.

I am attempting to seperate the horses by looking at relative trips like High Fly vs. Flower Alley (who finished close and had similar trips), Closing Argument vs. Afleet Alex etc... When I figure out which of each pairing I like better, I\'ll make an attempt to match up the less similar finishers.

I also think it makes more sense than usual to simply toss out the figures of some horses you know had a very tough time and base your appraisal of the horse on his form coming into the Derby (assuming there isn\'t clear evidence of a change).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:
>
> So incredible that most people can see these things after a few
> weeks. It took me a few years. :-)
>
> He hung like a chandelier and you didn\'t need to look at the
> clock to know that.


He also ran late on the slower part of the track with the biggest reason of the top 3 to regress. Additionally if someone really thinks the Other 2 scooted by, have another look or 3. Despite Regression, you have to suspect if AA followed Giacomo till the last eighth and takes him wide, he passes that one like hes standing still.

Things aren\'t always how they initially appear and drawing firm and fast conclusions about the quality of the animals in that race requires a little bit more than viewing the end of the race.

[hossgnat]

The feeling may change in a weeks time, but I have to admit that I\'m having trouble getting pumped up for this Preakness.  So much so that I\'m tempted to just watch and sit this one out, possibly observing another inscrutable result.

The Derby horses who ran in the money appear more likely than not to come back with a poor to average effort.  The new shooters and Derby also-rans are a wholly uninspiring lot.

We\'ll see, plenty of time still to find something to get excited about.