Briefly

[Mall]

I don\'t know what FWIW means, but I hope you\'re an investment banker, as it\'s one of only a few ways that your overtime pay could make up for missing that $8k tri. Assuming you didn\'t peak Sat, I get the impression you might be sitting on a new top when a week from Sat rolls around. If memory serves, you\'re still the undefeated & undisputed Champ, & if you\'re in the mood, the Preakness card might be a good opportunity for a little game of one on one. Patent\'s working too hard & is hardly ever around, but there is one poster who keeps reminding me of my tongue in cheek comment to David that the only track where the match he originally proposed could take place was Fantasyland Downs. Before you decide, keep in mind that even though you\'d probably be a heavy favorite, the stakes would be huge--for all of us. On the other hand, it could be a lot of fun, assuming the person I have in mind has the courage to accept your challenge, & is capable of demonstrating a little more humility & a little better sense of humor than I have seen so far. Whadda ya say Champ?

[Silver Charm]

Mall,

For What Its Worth

CH

>I\'m not sure what the correct figure for Sis City\'s big race actually is. We should keep in mind that no one else had that race really fast.

Are talking about their pace figure of final time figure. Because the final time figure is totally irrelevant for the reason you stated she lost at Keeneland.

Sis City was given a Neg 1 and Summerlys figure was not good. She ran terrible that day.

All the rest of what you said is classic mumbo jumbo. More of the same. The people involved with the horse said the Keeneland race was a total throw out and they fully intended to set whatever pace was necessary and fully expected to win. Maybe pace had nothing to do with the Keeneland result.

Maybe she HATED THE TRACK!

[OPM]

I think the Derby has more to do with Pace than Drugs but drugs are an important part.  If it\'s all drugs, how do you explain the great performance of Arguement and Buzzard BAy(who may end up with the best #).  For once, I was hoping that they were using since my group were sitting on a $2 pk4 live to AA, BR, Wilko, Sun King and High Limit, how this ticket loses is mind boggling, but that\'s horse racing.  If they are doing super testing for the Preakness, I guess Giacomo is still in play along with AA.

Silver Charm,

There is no mumbo jumbo in any of my posts if you read them carefully. It\'s actually quite simple.

1. I originally said that Summerly benefitted from a loose and easy lead in the Fair Ground Oaks and she wouldn\'t have run as fast had she been tested by a quality speed horse.

2. I said she got tested in the Ashland and lost.

3. In a conversarion with Len (on the other board), I conceded that she ran way worse than I expected and that pace alone probably didn\'t account for her terrible performance that day.

4. In her race on Friday \"I estimate\" that she ran no faster than she was running in her FG races (probably slower). Given that she won the FG Oaks race all wrapped up, you would think that when she\'s right (like Friday) she would be capable of running a faster race than she ran on FG Oaks day - especially now after two months of further maturation. Given that she didn\'t, then maybe I was correct all along in my opinion that in her Fair Grounds race she benefitted from the slow pace and easy lead.

5. IMO, Friday she earned a figure very in line with her current real ability.

I am not disputing the contention that she hated the track on the day of the Ashland, was sick, or any other excuse her connections made for her. I am saying that there\'s nothing that happened on Friday to disprove my opinion of her Fair Ground Oaks race where she got loose in an easy pace. Had she run a Beyer of 102 or something like that Friday, I would readily admit I was in error just like I did today when it came to Closing Argument (who I hated in the Derby and who I think ran the best race) and Bandini (who I liked and is still running).

I have no problem with being wrong. I do it all the time. Thankfully, not often enough to cause red ink. :-)



Post Edited (05-09-05 23:45)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

OPM

Theres a significant issue with the notion that the drug screening made the Derby clean and its this:

Drugs became a serious issue on figures in 2001. Suddenly many of the big race winners were popping unheard of low figures. Assuming a substance was enabling those low figures AND that the supertest has prevented use of that substance in this years Derby we have a problem. TGraph is going to assign the winner of the Derby a Zed. The last time we suspect the killer substances were not in use was 2000. At that time Horses did not run Zeds in the Derby.

Thus,

either the drug screening is not in place and the result of the Derby is a result upon bounce, pace and bias, or

Closing Argument and Giacomo were somehow administered drugs and the others probably not, or

Closing Argument and Giacomo ran faster without drugs than horses in the past ever have and are therefore liable to run away with the Preakness or bounce to the moon, or

If the drug testing was in place for Closing Argument and Giacomo TGraph may have got their Derby number wrong since it is not in line with 2000 and earlier year races.

Now, the issue is determining which of the four outcomes is most probable.



Post Edited (05-10-05 00:18)

[Silver Charm]

>If they are doing super testing for the Preakness, I guess Giacomo is still in play along with AA.

OPM it takes a tough beat on a Pick 4 to bring you out of the bushes. Man where the hell have you been.

When you find out about the supertesting and security let me know.

The golf pro said he would hold my 11:30AM tee time. Everybody understands but certain track managements.

[HP]

Mall,

I think \"contests\" are good because you actually have a chance to illustrate what the hell you are talking about beforehand.  I\'m always up for them.  

I don\'t have \"elective\" overtime, I have a certain amount that\'s mandatory on the weekend and I screwed up this week.  Unfortunately I still have to put my job ahead of the track, but someday...

Preakness Day Contest sounds great.  Jerry can figure out the prize.  Heh.  HP