I'm gone

[shanahan]

I\'m with you, John.  Don\'t you get the feeling the \":Blacklist\" wasn\'t just a TV series?

[johnnym]

I am not familiar with that series.
Speaking of list though, getting to Oaklawn with you and Fairmont1 is on my list.
Best of luck my friend
John

[doug jackson]

I did not bet the race.

Keenland, Oct. 23rd, the 6th race.

Someone said that the round the track odds drop no longer happen at the big tracks.

The winner, Beau Luminarie left the gate at 9/2, was 5/2 entering the stretch and won off paying 9/5.

[Tavasco]

To digress for a second. I\'m wanting to watch Oregon vs UCLA except the Network won\'t leave the Illinois Penn State game which just finished its seventh O.T. heading to the 8th???

[doug jackson]

I\'m happy for you, you\'re my hero.

[Fairmount1]

Microcap at Kee 4-1 down to 2-1.
Caramel Swirl at Kee 5-1 down to 3-1.
Cowboys Dream at Haw 7-1 (I think, maybe 6-1) down to 7-2.
Get Back Goldie at SA 7-1 down to 5-2.

All winners today.  And this is just anecdotal evidence I\'ve seen following a few tracks today.  But it is getting a bit ridiculous how much value is being crushed out of the win pool this often on horses that are winning.  I bet two of these above and my ROI far different than if the odds didn\'t decrease very late.  Thus, another reason I\'m far more \"leisurely\" in my gambling these days.    

I\'ve wanted to send Rocky a private message to see if these late win odds are still reflecting the other pools he tracks.  NYRA might be different with their new win rules and not sure if he follows other tracks besides NYRA.

[BitPlayer]

I think that if you are betting without looking at odds projections from other pools, you are making a mistake. I know DRF Bets includes odds projections from rolling doubles in its wager pad, and I think the same projections are included in Formulator.  Other ADW\'s may have reasons for not doing the same, but I don\'t know what they are.  The math is relatively straightforward.  Instead they include things like AI picks and profit lines.

Here are the DRF Bets projections for the horses mentioned in this thread:

Beau Luminarie: 5/2
Microcap: 4/1
Caramel Swirl:  7/2
Cowboys Dream: 9/2
Get Back Goldie:  None (1st race, no rolling DD)

I post my odds projections on Twitter from time to time and keep track of how the off-odds compare to my projections.  For the Belmont fall meet, I have posted projections for 60 races in which there was no late scratch.  In those races, 29 of the winners paid less than I projected, 2 paid the same amount, and 29 paid more.

For stakes races mostly at non-NYRA tracks going back to May of this year, I have posted projections for 187 races in which there was no late scratch.  89 of the winners paid less than I projected, 10 paid the same amount, and 88 paid more.

I concede that odds projections from DD betting are not perfect.  In my experience, the final payout is 10% or more less-than-projected about 25%  of the time and is 20% or more less-than-projected about 10% of the time.

[belmont3]

Bitplayer@projectedOdds

Mathcapper@Mathcapper

Twitter feeds although Rocky has been on mute since 2019.  

Cannnot speak to every race posted but any study would need to more along the lines of what Bit is doing.

Think you have to look at a much larger sample.
And how does the \"late\" money and bet downs \"know\" they are going to win.

The only race I watched was Caramel Swirl who won by a whisker.

Have used the \"DD method\"\" for 40 years. Often points out a horse that is taking \"action\" per the ML.
Sometimes its legit action. Sometimes it is just an inflated ML.

One thing for certain, late action horses do not always win.

The \"DD method\" is helpful in ascertaining anticipated Odds so one can structure their bets accordingly.

For Richie, I suggest you find a \"Fixed Odds\" betting venue.

Then you will lock in your Odds.

Bob

[Fairmount1]

I mentioned my examples were anecdotal.  But they were all in about a two hour period give or take on a Saturday afternoon.  

No outcome is preordained.  Even the ones that are could still go awry as happened in this not so famous Fairmount race.  

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/people/jockey-suspended-after-trying-to-let-cowboy-jones-win-race/

But the idea that late odds drops are not happening is not accurate.  They are happening.  The question is if they are in line with what is expected based on other pools.  BitPlayer mentioned that DRF has projected odds.  I see them and know what they say.  But if you pay attention they sometimes change and fluctuate as the race approaches.  So I don\'t have any idea what their basis is for their projected odds. I don\'t put much stock in them for this reason.  Rocky has taught me the method for calculating out the potential win odds based on other pools; however, when you are looking at multiple tracks it is more difficult to calculate all that out as you are making the fine line handicapping decisions.  

I\'m not a fixed odds guy.  Even with these late odds changes, I still prefer to fight it out parimutually.  

Last, I agree that odds go up on potential winners and odds go way down on losers also.  It isn\'t just odds decreases on winners.  But it seems to be happening more often that winners are being bet late.  I even have one very respected friend who insists bets are going in after the race has started and there is no convincing him otherwise.  Paying attention yesterday, I\'m not sure how I would refute what he is saying.  It is not a good look. If I am introducing people to the sport and tell them that 4-1 Microcap should be 4-1 based on double payouts and based on DRF Projections and the horse goes off 2-1 as he wins the race, the new potential fan would want me to explain.  And the right answer is ? ? ? ?

[belmont3]

\"But the idea that late odds drops are not happening is not accurate\"

Not saying that at all.

The late bet downs do not always win.  

If one horse gets bet down, then other odds must rise.
Which means some \"Not Bet Downs\" where odds RISE win.

I think you are not looking for those types.

The \"WHALES\" may just be better handicappers. The fact that they spent money to build a better mousetrap is no different that the hedgehogger quant guys on Wall Street that build a superior trading model.  

What I find unfair (and I have heard this but have yet to see hard evidence) is that the \"WHALES\" have access to Pool data that the average player cannot see.

If the WHALES simply take advantage of overlays based on their probable odds calculation,....Good Luck.  
If a WHALE hypothetically \"bets down\" an exacta, tri, pick 3 or 4.....then the potential payoffs for the combinations not being bet go UP in price.

Think one has to examine the payoff data for payouts that are overly generous as well as for the ones that seemed to \"SHORT\"

First, one has to figure what are \"FAIR ODDS\" for a DD, TRI, EXACTA, Pick 3, Pick 4 based on field size and odds.
Never see any data like this published.
Just the customary a DD should pay a parlay plus 10% etc.

And finally,  it is a good thing to calculate the probably odds based on DD pools etc.
But show me how you use that concept to cash a bet??

[Boscar Obarra]

Some of what you say it true, but leaves out this important fact
 
 A big bet on a single horse crushes that horses odds, but does relatively little for the others on the upside, since it\'s distributed evenly among the whole field. .

 So when the whale horse wins , you get ripped, but when it loses, you win only modestly more.

  Your edge would come by avoiding the whale horse altogether, though that\'s easier said than done, and would require you to pass many races