Ghostzapper

Chris,

You nailed it on the head. That\'s exactly the kind of value play I will often get!!!

[Silver Charm]

Please save yourselves all this trouble.

Go find Dave Litfins first book called \"Dave Litfins Expert Handicapping\". He has a section in the book called, Won the Speed Dual Lost the Race Angle.

All you needed to do was observe Silver Charm duel through vicious fractions with Sharp Cat in the Santa Anita Derby and still be a very game second to see he was going to be hell on Ky Derby Day.

That and the fact he had the SHEET related Explosion Horse Angle working for him, also discussed in that very same book.  

This is almost enough for somebody to publically guarantee him as the \"Biggest Lock since Citation\"

[jbelfior]

CH---


Excellent. A recent example was the winner of the last race several Sundays ago at Saratoga.

SALTY CHARACTER, dropping from 35K to 25K. His 35K running line looked awful, running 8th at every call and beaten over 20 lenghths. However both the pace and final numbers for the 6f race were par--- for 50K claimers.

He closed strongly at 7f for 25K claimers who could not finish after splits of :22 and :44 2/5....$24.60 mutual.

Now I realize this is just one example, but you do not need many $24 winners to keep you afloat in this game.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

SC,

I loved Silver Charm in the Derby for that reason. That style of handicapping falls into my \"visual skills\" and \"quality of speed caetgory\".

I think it helps to use a COMBINATION of visual skills, pace figures and the quality of the speed when evaluating the pace.

Pace figures are complex and prone to occasional errors, but it is just as difficult to see just how fast or slow horses are running relative to what is normal for them. Horses can be dueling without really running all that fast. Others can be running well within themselves and be flying.  

Sometimes, viewing the race using various handicapping tools clarifies what really happened.

For ex.

I still do not believe the Woodward pace was extremely fast for true G1 horses even though it looked very fast and they opend up on the field. It was fast, but not earthshattering (expect maybe for a few weaker horses trying to cope with the 2nd quarter)

The 6F pace figure did not come back all that fast. On my figures it was a 126 pace 116 final. 126 is fast, but not killer (unless of course you aren\'t a Grade I horse). :-)



Post Edited (09-15-04 11:52)

[msola1]

classhandicapper,

Where do you get your pace figures?

mike

I am a long time customer for the trip notes. I was making my own pace figures, but this fine fellow agreed to take over the chore at a price and quality that allowed me put my energy elsewhere.  They are Beyer-like pace figures.

http://www.logicdictates.com/

JB, if you object to me posting this link please tell me. I won\'t do it anymore.

[jbelfior]

CH---

Nick\'s a hell of a guy with a terrific product. Like anything else, it is another weapon in the horseplayer\'s arsenal.


Good Luck,
Joe B.