Ghostzapper

[jimbo66]

Miff (and JB),

I think you are right Miff, in that we will have a product out there that combines pace figures, with ground loss, weight consideration, stats and track bias.  I think it would be THE comprehensive product for handicappers.  

It really is a major part of the reason I continue to post on this board about the fact that I think JB is missing several key points in \"handicapping theorem\", both pace and bias.

I understand being resolute in his thinking and sticking with what he believes and I respect this.  However, if enough of us customers can convince JB he might be wrong, I am hopeful that he will be open to this thinking and consider it.  

T-Graph really could be THE PRODUCT on the market and not just \"one of the products\" on the market!!

Jimbo and Miff,

Personally, I think JB would be making a huge mistake to even try to incorporate pace figures into the horses\' ratings if that\'s what you are suggesting. Making the pace figures is one thing. Trying to combine them with speed figures is another.  

I\'m not sure if you\'ve ever made pace figures yourselves or if you\'ve just used someone elses\'s, but IMO it is close to impossible to make pace figures that are even nearly as accurate as the speed figures made by competent final figure makers. Even excellent speeed figures are prone to occasional inaccuracies due to interpretation. Heck, when I look at 4 or 5 sets of speed figures they often disagree by a wide margin even when adjusted for methodology.

The complications are endless for pace.

1. Horses rate so it\'s difficult to project the pace. You are more dependent on pars.

2. The wind is much more of a factor depending on the distance and the run against/with the wind.

3. Track speed is not always uniform.
ex. The backstretch could be a lot slower than the turn. That would effect the fractions differently than the final time.  

4. The starting gate is not always in the same exact position.

That\'s just some of the major problems with making the pace figures.

Then, IMO, trying to create a precise formula for estimating the impact of pace on final time is doubly impossible. There are some rough guesstimates out there that work OK, but they are not perfect. I really believe the impact varies from horse to horse.

Between slightly suspect speed figures, more suspect pace figures, and a suspect formula for combining them you are often going to wind up with a very inaccurate appraisal.

IMO, the best way to do it is to look at the pace figures and look at the race development and determine if the pace was fast or slow, how fast or slow and when. Then look at the individual trips and see who may have benefitted and who may have been hurt by the pace. Then when you look at the speed figures, view them in light of the pace aspect of their trip and appraise the horse.

For example, you could make some kind of pace figure for the Woodward, but I don\'t think you will get a better rating than by just using some common sense. You might get something worse in many cases though.

You don\'t have to be rocket scientist to see that the second and third quarters of that race were really quick.

So if for example you are using Beyer figures combined with trips you know that Ghost isn\'t nearly as good as the 128 earned at Monmouth suggests. He beat a weaker field on the mud with a relatively easy trip that day.

You also know he\'s better than the 114 he earned this weekend because he was used extremely hard in the middle of the race battling St Liam.

I don\'t think you need to be much more precise than that.

[Easy Goer]

\'You don\'t have to be rocket scientist to see that the second and third quarters of that race were really quick.\'

You don\'t have to be a rocket scientist to see that, but does it hurt to be one? I will say yes, based on the racetrack performance of my pals at work... Woody, you listening?

[HP]

Classhandicapper wrote --

\"Closers that maintained their position or tried to improve it during the 45.3 middle race would be running too fast even though they were off the pace. It would impact their time. It would \"bottom them out.\"\"

This is EXACTLY the black hole of pace handicapping. The horses you refer to as \"closers\" are actually not operating as \"closers.\" For whatever reason, the jockey(s) involved have decided to \"stalk\" a hot pace. After a reasonable first quarter, the front runners picked it up and these guys said \"hey, let\'s go!\" No pace figures are going to give an insight on the likelihood of this occurring.

This \"on the fly\" tactical decision making by the jockeys is a steady factor. In Classhandicapper\'s example, I would probably have upgraded the closers chances since I may have guessed they would have something to run at. And I would have been looking at the fractions and cursing and saying \"you\'re moving too soon on my 3 you nimrod! Stay on the rail and wait!\"  

If you could reliably guarantee that all the horses would run in the pace style you assigned them, that would be great, and there ARE races like this. But there are more races where it ISN\'T predictable or pace just isn\'t as big a factor (like Ghostzapper hammering them into the ground). HP

HP,

I believe you are missing the usefulness of pace handcapping. It\'s not so much about predicting the duels and slows paces (though sometimes that is possible). It\'s about measuring horses performances in the past properly. In other words, you want to know when the pace impacted a horse\'s final figure because that means he\'s better/worse than he looks.



Post Edited (09-14-04 11:55)

[miff]

CLASS,

I do not think it is possible to incorporate pace figs into the final figure.I would much rather have separate pace figs than the pattern stats which I personally find to be of little use.

Incidentallly, some people making pace figs are very aware of wind speed /direction, moisture, run-ups etc.

[HP]

I can tell when pace has impacted the final figure by looking at the final figure. I get out the Racing Form and I look at the final figures and I\'m done. HP

Miff,

>Incidentallly, some people making pace figs are very aware of wind speed /direction, moisture, run-ups etc.<

Understood. I made that attempt also, but I was only making them for NY. I think it\'s really tough to be accurate. Certainly tougher than with final figures.

By the way, Racing Form people are currently working with the Beyer people to produce pace figures for the Racing Form. Not sure how far off it is, but I spoke to someone at the Form last week and the project IS IN PROGRESS.

[miff]

Class,
I heard the same thing in Saratoga, very, very interesting development. I know that many \"players\" have approached Steve Crist with this issue and apparently he is looking into it quite seriously.For me,I think it\'s a great idea as I have long held that the adjusted internal splits are just as relavent as the final figure is.

[jbelfior]

For most dirt races, pace figures are too dependant on how the jocks ride the race. They are totally irrelevant on the turf.

Pace figures may give you an occssional insight that escapes the masses for a particular race or two, but overall the speed figures will be more reliable.

Did anyone really need pace figures to know that Saint Liam would be an early pace factor in the Woodward??


Good Luck,
Joe B.

JoeB,

I know I repeat myself a lot, but here goes.

I never have and never would use pace figures to try to determine how a race might develop.  

Horses rate. So their pace figures generally tell you very little about how fast they \"could\" run early if pressed or allowed to by their jockies.

When trying to determine how the race might develop, I am much more interested in a horse\'s running style, the consistency of that style, the quality of the horses early speed types have been outsprinting, the horse\'s versatility and the jockey\'s tendencies.

The only thing I use pace figures for is to help evaluate prior performances. I want to know if the horss recent final figures were hindered or helped by the pace scenarios in its races.



Post Edited (09-14-04 15:55)

[jbelfior]

CH--

Well put. A horse that goes :47 around 2 turns going a mile and an eight may indeed be able to run a :45 flat down the Belmont chute at the same distance.

So now are you/we saying that pace figures may be of significant use in sprints, especially at 6f or less???


Good Luck,
Joe B.

I\'m not sure how other people use them.

There may be great applications that I haven\'t come up with that others have. You tell me. :-)

I just use them to evaluate past performances because I know that works great.

Ex.

Pace-Final

100-100
120-88
93 (loose) - 106
100-100
105-96

Given the above series of races I know that the horse has been running approximately the same way in all his races even though it looks like he bounced off a peak and then recovered. No such pattern exists.

The pace figures simply help me interpret results, current form, and often explain fluctuations in final fgures that otherwise don\'t seem to make sense.

[JimP]

Classhandicapper, I think your approach is sound. And similar in principle to what I suspect most of us use. You see the figures as a pattern with some anomalies. Then you look closely at the anomalies to see if there are logical explanations for why they occured. You postulate \"pace\" (in several forms) as a possible explanation. Makes sense to me. I\'m sure you agree that there are other factors that might explain the anomalies as well. Some obvious ones are dry vs wet surface, distance, etc. Don\'t we all look for those. And after we sort through the possible explanations we try to see if a real pattern does emerge. I think it\'s a fairly standard approach. And I don\'t see why pace, in the context of a particular horse\'s pattern, couldn\'t be one of those possible mitigating factors. So what is everyone arguing about?

[derby1592]

Good discussion. Here is something else to consider that is building on what classhandicapper described but with a different spin.

Let\'s add one other line to the horse CH used as an example. Let\'s say the horse is a 3yo or even a 4yo and in his most recent race he was was part of a pressured pace in which he earned a pace/final rating of: 120/100

Note that from a final-figure only perspective any improvement would be \"hidden,\" but by looking at both pace and final figure you could interpret such a line in some very interesting and potentially profitable ways the next time he runs.

Of course, this all assumes we have reliable pace ratings to work with...

Chris